$30 i has a combo draw

[bozzer]

have been a bit off key with my combo draws lately. what do you think about the strength of my draw here, and what should i do with it?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $55.60
BB: $27.10
UTG: $16.40
MP: $24.60
CO: $30.00
Hero (BTN): $59.15

Reads: <font color="blue">UTG is 48/7 after 27 hands
MP no reads</font>

CO posts $0.30
Preflop: Hero is dealt Q/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.30, <font color="red">MP raises to $1.00</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.70

Flop: ($3.75) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">MP bets $3.60</font>, and you?

[Rounder101]

raisy daisy.

[vixticator]

Push.

[members_only]

Given stack sizes, flop bet size, and the fact that MP was the pre-flop raiser, I like a push here.

Obviously you do not have as much equity vs his calling range as if you had AcJc or Tc9c but I would expect your overcard outs, or at least three of them, to be good quite often and your flush outs almost always.

[mookboi]

Shove.

[bozzer]

cool thats fine then, thanks.

he tanked and eventually called with KJ, which was irritating.

[bozzer]

if we had A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif here, would anyone be less inclined to shove and more inclined to just call?

[eurythmech]

The overcards makes this a combo draw? :S

[xeanatic]

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Push.

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[corsakh]

I don't like his flop betsize and he either hit or has an over pair. Hence, we have no folding equity and I like calling in position. I also want UTG to come along, that would be owesome.

Shoving is the worst line - it defines your hand too well and makes his decision easier. If you want to raise, make it $13, but I much rather prefer a call.

[Check_The_Nuts]

yeah I don't like shoving at all.

Also anyone else not call here very often versus this guy preflop?

[corsakh]

I raise unknown MP with KQs always.

[Check_The_Nuts]

u don't make sense cor. He did give really good odds so yea I probably end up calling pre, but I just don't like KQ/KJ hands at all. Only real value in it is the suitedness IMO.

and he's not an unknown man.

[bozzer]

MP was unknown. (i had about 4 hands on him) - i agree that if UTG had raised with his low PFR% (true PFR could be anywhere between 5-15% but the chances are he's tight) KQo is definately a fold, and KQs is probably a fold with no callers.

Re 3betting. It's ok, but I've been trying to play a lower variance game against unknowns lately.

I'm annoyed I posted results now btw.

[XHitman014]

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u don't make sense cor. He did give really good odds so yea I probably end up calling pre, but I just don't like KQ/KJ hands at all. Only real value in it is the suitedness IMO.

and he's not an unknown man.

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So KQs=56s? Or is 56s actually better since you can make straights both ways?

KQs is definitely a trouble hand for a lot of people but not raising it in position seems like we're missing a lot of value PF.

[corsakh]

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u don't make sense cor. He did give really good odds so yea I probably end up calling pre, but I just don't like KQ/KJ hands at all. Only real value in it is the suitedness

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean? Its a pretty standard line.

I don't like KQ/KJ either thats why I almost never call with it.

If its an EP TAG opening, I may call for SC value if its suited. But against lags or unknowns in MP I just 3bet it - the hand is not strong enough to call neither we have implied odds against a loose player.

[corsakh]

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i agree that if UTG had raised with his low PFR% (true PFR could be anywhere between 5-15% but the chances are he's tight) KQo is definately a fold, and KQs is probably a fold with no callers.

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The tighter the raiser is, the better implied odds you get.

The better implied odds you get, the more hands you can profitably call with. As long as you don't go broke on TP. Its an easy call in position against a 7PFR.

[traz]

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i agree that if UTG had raised with his low PFR% (true PFR could be anywhere between 5-15% but the chances are he's tight) KQo is definately a fold, and KQs is probably a fold with no callers.

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The tighter the raiser is, the better implied odds you get.

The better implied odds you get, the more hands you can profitably call with. As long as you don't go broke on TP. Its an easy call in position against a 7PFR.

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This really makes no sense.

I fold pf (or 3bet for value against this guy) and raise flop

[corsakh]

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So KQs=56s? Or is 56s actually better since you can make straights both ways?

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You are right, 65s is better. Not only because it makes straights both ways, but also because:

1) You know you are not dominated, hence you dont have a kicker problem etc (in case you flop trips or something).

2) If you hit hard with 65s, its gonna be much harder for the villain to get away from TT or JJ than if you hit with KQ. Hence your implied odds go through the roof.

[WarhammerIIC]

MP bets the pot into two opponents = he's not going anywhere. Just call.

[XHitman014]

This whole thread is confusing...we have people talking of folding KQs to a normal raise when we're on a button...the villian isn't even deep or anything and he's a bad player judging from the stats. These players are horrible in re-raised pots...we all know this. Raise it up and take it away on the flop if we miss. If we hit, play pot control and extract value on the river. The stacks aren't even that large, raising PF is standard, calling is ehhh, folding is bizarre.

[corsakh]

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i agree that if UTG had raised with his low PFR% (true PFR could be anywhere between 5-15% but the chances are he's tight) KQo is definately a fold, and KQs is probably a fold with no callers.

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The tighter the raiser is, the better implied odds you get.

The better implied odds you get, the more hands you can profitably call with. As long as you don't go broke on TP. Its an easy call in position against a 7PFR.

[/ QUOTE ]

This really makes no sense.

I fold pf (or 3bet for value against this guy) and raise flop

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Say villain only raises with AA. You can call with lots of hands (other than those that contain an ace) since you stack him most of the time if you hit.

Say he raises AA and KK. His range is now double his original range. Now you don't want to be calling with K too since you are dominated. But your other calling hands should be tighter too since now he does not go broke with KK on Ace high flop, which will happen about 10% of the time.

Say he raises AA, KK and AK. His range is now 6 times the original. You dont want to call with neither Ace nor King.

And you also dont want to call by a lot of other hands since now he only stacks off

100% when he has Aces
About 80% when he has KK (assuming he does not stack off on Ace high flop)
And 35% when he has AK

Thats about 55% at most.

See how much your implied odds have dropped?

[traz]

I understand what implied odds are. That doesn't mean calling with KQ is correct.

If we assume villain is raising QQ+,AQ+, calling with KQ is so bad.

[bozzer]

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This whole thread is confusing...we have people talking of folding KQs to a normal raise when we're on a button...the villian isn't even deep or anything and he's a bad player judging from the stats.

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the pre-flop raising villain is unknown. and if you have got confused and want to 3b a guy with a 7% PFR with KQs, be my guest.

there's no way we're folding to a raise by an unknown in position here.

people who make a small raise, obviously you're calling if he shoves. does a small raise really help your FE/disguise your hand? I don't think it does - he's just gonna call with stuff like KJ 90% of times, and then the turn will blank and you'll be in trouble...

people who say call - have we really got no FE from a cb here? assume a complete $30nl random.

re. bet size - i thought he mashed the bet pot button at the time which wouldn't indicate so much strength as typing in a betsize slightly less than pot. agree?

also, thoughts on my AJ/images/graemlins/club.gif question?

[corsakh]

Forget KQ, we are talking about a SC here.

[corsakh]

Absolutely nothing wrong with folding KQo to a raise from uknown. Much better than calling. The only reason you may consider calling here is if KQ is sooted and you think the raiser is a tight player. But he is an unknown - how do you know that? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

The reason for a smaller raise is to make it believable. Who ever shoves with sets or two pairs for over the pot? If you do that with strong hands, a shove is fine. Usually when someone shoves a flop, he just says "I has a draw and I dont want to get called". When the flop is two sooted J high, you dont need to be Phil Ivey to put 2+2 together.

We do not have FE against an unknown if he hit. And looking from his bet size, he hit.

Pot cbet on a drawy board is usually a very straightforward protection. And he did not mash the pot button either.

[AZplaya]

I think a shove is pretty bad, it looks like a draw...would you really overbet-shove a set here? Make a nice pot sized raise, and obv call a push. As far as pf, I 3 bet alot in pozz with this hand, as NL$30 players are aweful in raised pots.

[bozzer]

ok if we pot it to $14 we'll just about have odds to call on the turn, so i guess it's ok. i agree that shoving does look like a draw. i hate raising to $9 unless that means we get to check behind on the turn nearly always.

calling is pretty sketchy imo, depending on how often you think he bets the turn, how often UTG comes along, and how good our implied odds are. it's probably mildly +EV in most situations though.

[ssdex]

for all of you who said shove------

we are shoving then for fold equity and not truly b/c we have a combo draw, the EV of the shove here, if a shove is truly +EV, comes from a combination of the times we get a fold and the times we hit one of our 9 outs, against particular villains this is a very -EV shove. ---- unless you think his calling range includes a bare J---- we are not flipping against his calling range, as I would be very surprised to see him call with AJ, KJ, or a lower flush draw----- his calling range makes up hands we have 9 outs to

[corsakh]

AJ and KJ call here all day long. If they did not I would shove without thinking.

[ssdex]

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AJ and KJ call here all day long. If they did not I would shove without thinking.

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I rarely would call a shove, is villain a spewy monkey or something? do we know this? im never/rarely felting KJ/ or AJ here without a very good read, and i doubt many good regs would either.

[traz]

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for all of you who said shove------

we are shoving then for fold equity and not truly b/c we have a combo draw, the EV of the shove here, if a shove is truly +EV, comes from a combination of the times we get a fold and the times we hit one of our 9 outs, against particular villains this is a very -EV shove. ---- unless you think his calling range includes a bare J---- we are not flipping against his calling range, as I would be very surprised to see him call with AJ, KJ, or a lower flush draw----- his calling range makes up hands we have 9 outs to

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Yes. We're raising for FE on the hands that beat us but he will fold, and we're raising for our flush outs and SOMETIMES K/Q outs on the hands that beat us and he will call with.

That is correct...and it is + EV. Whether he calls or not with AJ or KJ is largely irrelevant

[corsakh]

Who said MP was a reg? Who said MP was good?

[ssdex]

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for all of you who said shove------

we are shoving then for fold equity and not truly b/c we have a combo draw, the EV of the shove here, if a shove is truly +EV, comes from a combination of the times we get a fold and the times we hit one of our 9 outs, against particular villains this is a very -EV shove. ---- unless you think his calling range includes a bare J---- we are not flipping against his calling range, as I would be very surprised to see him call with AJ, KJ, or a lower flush draw----- his calling range makes up hands we have 9 outs to

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Yes. We're raising for FE on the hands that beat us but he will fold, and we're raising for our flush outs on the hands that beat us and he will call with.

That is correct...and it is + EV. Whether he calls or not with AJ or KJ is largely irrelevant

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traz, against most villains their range here is AJ/KJ or better---- against some villains---- its tighter then that---- the shove is only +EV if their calling range includes AJ or KJ or if their leading range includes air, semibluffs and other types of hands--- otherwise we are shoving into a 40/60 situation at best--- otherwise we are not gaining enough fold equity to counter balance the odds of drawing out.

[bozzer]

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AJ and KJ call here all day long. If they did not I would shove without thinking.

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would you shove 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif?

[corsakh]

Thats actually a fairly interesting question /images/graemlins/smile.gif Unfortunately, we will never know the correct answer to this since I dont see people folding tp often enough. But if they did, I'd only have to be right about 55-60% of the time and it would most certainly be EV+ since I dont think he has something better than AJ here more than 40-45% of the time.

[traz]

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for all of you who said shove------

we are shoving then for fold equity and not truly b/c we have a combo draw, the EV of the shove here, if a shove is truly +EV, comes from a combination of the times we get a fold and the times we hit one of our 9 outs, against particular villains this is a very -EV shove. ---- unless you think his calling range includes a bare J---- we are not flipping against his calling range, as I would be very surprised to see him call with AJ, KJ, or a lower flush draw----- his calling range makes up hands we have 9 outs to

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Yes. We're raising for FE on the hands that beat us but he will fold, and we're raising for our flush outs on the hands that beat us and he will call with.

That is correct...and it is + EV. Whether he calls or not with AJ or KJ is largely irrelevant

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traz, against most villains their range here is AJ/KJ or better---- against some villains---- its tighter then that---- the shove is only +EV if their calling range includes AJ or KJ or if their leading range includes air, semibluffs and other types of hands--- otherwise we are shoving into a 40/60 situation at best--- otherwise we are not gaining enough fold equity to counter balance the odds of drawing out.

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But surely SOMETIMES villain's will call with AJ or worse. There are still all sorts of other combo draws out there.