AA do I value bet river ?

No read on villain. I`m 18/14/4, doesn`t really matters cause villain has no read on me yet.

I have to value bet this river correct? and how much ?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($49.50)
BB ($23.90)
UTG ($90.55)
<font color="#C00000">MP ($50.40)</font>
CO ($43.65)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($87.65)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.5</font>, MP calls $4.50.

Turn: ($14.75) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $11</font>, MP calls $11.

River: ($36.75) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">

[danny8]

i'd value bet. its unlikely hes playing a set this passively, usually he'll raise the turn, or donk the river. obv QJ just outdrew you. AJ/KJ, maybe JT will still pay you off, and theres always a chance hes a crazy CS with somehtign else.

i dunno whats the most ev on the river, you could shove for $32 into the $36 pot, he'll prolly call with AJ, might be able to fold though. $20 will prolly get looked up nearly always, but looks more like a vbet since your leaving yourself with like $12 behind.

i dunno, i guess i just shove, or bet ~$20 ish depending on what i feel at the time!

[ICMoney]

He has about a psb left.

I agree with Danny that a bet w/ $10 behind is obv for value.

Can't really see him calling flop and turn and a river push w/ &lt;AA.

Even if he shouldn't call doesn't mean we shouldn't bet.

Not really sure what he could have limping and calling on a dry flop.

If you bet weakish ($12) would you call a push?

[orange]

all day

[CmnDwnWrkn]

Yeah, good spot to value bet. Around $20 would be good. I don't think he checks every street with a hand that beats you. He's probably checking w/ TPTK for pot control. I would expect a set or two pair to shove the river.

[Ramana]

I don't shove. Valuebet 18-21 looks good, obv call a shove.

[youthies]

Yes, I bet 20 or so.

[shark_fishin]

id vbet, if he had 2pair, he would have bet somewhere in the hand, it looks like KJ/AJ.
i think a lot of weaker hands will call you here

[mvdgaag]

Yeah, make it 20

Thanks for replies folks, I shoved and he showed 99 for a set of nines. He played that pretty weird. My read was also KJ, AJ. Just wanted to check if my radar was off ;(
Thought he would bet turn with a set or 2pair.

Regarding shoving, I prefered shoving to betting 20$, since I think both looks the same, so why loose 10$ vs weaker hands.

[corsakh]

$20 is better than a shove.

[KingGeedorah]

what worse hand calls this river....

[corsakh]

22 since he puts you on AK ldo.

[Waingro]

Bet bet push would be my standard line in this spot and I expect to be looked up on the river by all kinds of stuff. For the exact same reason why we don´t do this line as a bluff. Many villains wont fold a J here.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
22 since he puts you on AK ldo.

[/ QUOTE ]

22 has hero crushed. /images/graemlins/smile.gif



On that board I'd usually check behind on turn and valuebet river if checked to though.

[dmoney]

I check here most of the time. YOu have to take into consideration what his calling range is. If you bet he could pay you off with his 1 pair hands but he also may fold, however if he has 2 pair + he is never folding so i think you are behind more times that he calls then you are ahead. Checking is best imo. that river really helped a ton of his river calling range. Checks good here imo.

[DerrtySlime]

[ QUOTE ]
I check here most of the time. YOu have to take into consideration what his calling range is. If you bet he could pay you off with his 1 pair hands but he also may fold, however if he has 2 pair + he is never folding so i think you are behind more times that he calls then you are ahead. Checking is best imo. that river really helped a ton of his river calling range. Checks good here imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
checking is stupid. your losing so much value if you don't bet. are you trying to say we're behind most of the time on this river?

[dmoney]

No i'm not, if you could read it says that we are behind most of the time that he CALLS our bet.

[ryang]

i'm checking river.

[mvdgaag]

[ QUOTE ]
On that board I'd usually check behind on turn and valuebet river if checked to though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Checking the turn is a great waste of value since we are most likely ahead. You don't just miss the turn bet, but you cannot bet as big at the river either into a smaller pot.

[ QUOTE ]
what worse hand calls this river....

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'm checking river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Worse hands are calling... AJ, KJ, KK, TT, 88, 77. Also think what better hands might call here and are likely the way he played? QJ is the only one I can think of. So his worse hand calling range is way bigger than his better hand calling range IMO.