50NL - 99, I misapply Dero's combinatorics?

[Willem]

No real reads as villain only sat down an orbit ago orso. He has been very active though, so I'm not giving his 3-bet too much credit (hence my call pre).

On the flop, I think two overs are a bigger part of his range than an overpair, so that's why I decided to raise for protection.

Is this flawed thinking by me? How would you play here? I think folding pre is very reasonable. Is calling reasonable too? If we do this, then what's our plan for the rest of the hand?

All comments welcome.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($47.20)
Button ($25.75)
SB ($30.35)
BB ($28.95)
UTG ($38.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $5.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $3.50.

Flop: ($11.50) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $25.5</font>, SB calls $17.85 (All-In).

Final Pot: $61.21

[Waingro]

If you think his range for 3betting is wider than the usual TT+ and AQ+ and he always cbs then your line is very reasonable. If his range isn´t wider than this you should consider he might not always play a hand like AQ like this. In which case I like a fold pf. Once you get to the flop you have to push.

[eurythmech]

Folding pre is well..criminal imho. You have position, two nines and the threebet is small.

On the flop, if we ignore the fact that he sometimes will have flushdraws (call with overs) and sometimes will have sets, let's assume that he either folds two overcards or calls with an overpair.

Against an overpair we have 1/8 equity.

Hence:

If he's got overs, we win (11.50+7*2) - rake - 7 = $17.25 profit.

If he's got an overpair we pay $23.45 to take part in a pot of $58.40 - rake = $56.40, of which we have 1/8 equity, meaning we pay $23.45 for a $7.05 equity, ie a loss of $16.40.

Thus we see that, in this simplification of the scenario, this is okay as long as overpair is only a little more common than over cards. We need around 48.7% for overs.

[carnivalhobo]

if you call pre, you need to felt here