NL50 KQ 2 pair line vs 3 flush flop

[bluffbetter]

Villain is 50/22.7/1.5 over 22 hands

My thoughts on this hand are that I needed to raise the flop because despite the small sample, this player is almost certainly a fish, and I think he may well have a bare ace or even jack or ten of spades here. And I'm also ahead of AK and KJ and KT suited with no flush draw, all of which I think are quite reasonable for him to have.

What do you think of this line? Does anyone play this really slowly, or is my line OK?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($51.85)
BB ($17.45)
UTG ($101.15)
MP ($63.10)
CO ($37.35)
Hero ($48.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($3.75) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8.5</font>, MP calls $6.50.

Turn: ($20.75) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $38.55</font>, MP calls $33.55.

River: ($97.85) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $97.85

[whyzze]

I dont shove turn, but I make it 20ish.

[11t]

Raising to 20 with 18 left behind is terrible advice

I call the turn and hope a spade doesn't hit the river then call a river bet

If a spade hits you are faced with a difficult decision but I would prbably still call a moderately sized river bet since villain is aggressive enough that he may not have a spade in his hand

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising to 20 with 18 left behind is terrible advice

[/ QUOTE ]

explain please...FE is not an issue on the river.

Only reason to push turn is if we know he will call with the Ac.

Calling turn is horrible.

[monkeymaps]

agianst this villian I like turn raise cause he could be calling with alot of worse hands but agianst a more conservitive villan raising turn only commits in this wa/wb spot IMO

[11t]

FE isn't an issue but you are pot committed if you raise to 20 so you might as well push and get your money in instead of raising to 20 and then putting yourself in some god awful situation where you are basically forced to call the river regardless of what falls (ie an A or spade falls)

You have top two pair on a fairly coordinated board. Your hand is good but not that great.

Villains stats are donkeyish however it is over 22 hands so I would not even pay attention to them. Unless I had seen him do something that would lead me to believe that I am categorically ahead of his range then I would prefer to play a smaller pot instead of a larger one.

Anyway if you shove the turn/raise the turn I am not that sure how often villain calls when you are ahead unless it is with ak with the ace of spades.

FWIW at higher limits people who call reraises and then lead the turn instead of 3-betting the flop typically are not nits and have the nuts

[whyzze]

I have no problem folding the river if a spade hits.

[monkeymaps]

if you raise turn your pretty much AI on the river

[11t]

If you re-raise the turn do you fold to a push?

[whyzze]

never...and btw...calling the turn gives him odds to catch his flush. Not just with the ace, but with any spade he could have in his hand.

[monkeymaps]

I think what he is saying is that a turn raise is the same thing as a push cause your commited on the turn or river.
only thing that calls push is a made hand that is prob better than ours alot of the time (maybe not this villian).
might be better to wait for you equity to increase on the river in this spot even if you have to give a cheap card.

[Daniel LeClaire]

I'd like to see you reraise preflop.

This line means different things. Some guys do this to trap you into raising, others are just making blocking bets. I think raising turn all in is fine. Actually I think it's the best play.

Let's say he is trapping on the turn. You flat call turn. Now the river is a blank and he bets pot. Are you going to fold? Probably not. So you might as well take advantage of the times that he is drawing/blocking and shove the turn.

[homebrewer]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 50/22.7/1.5 over 22 hands

My thoughts on this hand are that I needed to raise the flop because despite the small sample, this player is almost certainly a fish, and I think he may well have a bare ace or even jack or ten of spades here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not too sure about getting all of my money in at this particular spot. Perhaps, I'm too cautious but 22 hands would not make me confident that the villain is a fish. I've posted on tables many times to be dealt a string of premium hands making my VPIP over a small sample 40-50% when my normal VPIP is less than 1/2 of that playing 6 max.


[ QUOTE ]
FWIW at higher limits people who call reraises and then lead the turn instead of 3-betting the flop typically are not nits and have the nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

Saw this after my post. I see this at the micro-limits a lot too. The smallish turn bet is the nuts for some villains. But, I couldn't be confident based on 22 hands.

[bluffbetter]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see you reraise preflop.

This line means different things. Some guys do this to trap you into raising, others are just making blocking bets. I think raising turn all in is fine. Actually I think it's the best play.

Let's say he is trapping on the turn. You flat call turn. Now the river is a blank and he bets pot. Are you going to fold? Probably not. So you might as well take advantage of the times that he is drawing/blocking and shove the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the problem here is that, like people have said already, villains calling range of a turn shove may be too narrow to make this the correct play. And I think the turn shove shows more strength than calling and so if river is a blank, a value-bet if villain checks is more likely to get paid off.(Note: I would value bet here because he's loose, but against a tight villain, I wouldn't, because I would often be behind)

[bluffbetter]

[ QUOTE ]
never...and btw...calling the turn gives him odds to catch his flush. Not just with the ace, but with any spade he could have in his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you're right. I just calculated that if I raised to 25 on the turn, he wouldn't have the odds to call even if I called the river every time (which I obviously would) a fourth spade hit. But I think that's making it too complicated, I think either calling or shoving the turn are the only good options.

[11t]

Yeah villain could also have JT and a myriad of other drawing hands and I realize that calling gives him the odds to catch, but this is how I see it

Assuming that villain is a looser player of moderate aggression (which he could also be a fish but until noted otherwise/larger sample size I believe it is good to give the benefit of a doubt to random players) then his range at the point of after the turn lead is likely:

~AA,AK,KQ,KJ,KT,JT, all of which would most likely have a spade in its hand. He could also have a flopped flush which due to his wide range of raising hands could be any combination of suited connectors, one-gappers, or a-xs. Since you are facing a near LAG player I doubt he has KK/QQ/66 since they would 3-betting the flop all in almost 100% of the time. KQ is also less likely but people are more likely to not 3-bet top two pair on a 3 flush board than they are a set.

So the decisions really begin on the turn. From the information given we have narrowed villain's hand range down. He leads 25% of the pot. Now since we showed strength by raising his flop lead, we can assume that he knows that we have a decent hand.

There are a few possibilites here.

1. He has some straight/flush draw combination and probably a lot of outs against your hand
2. He has a marginal hand that is not worth folding the flop and has showdown value but he is not willing to stack off with it.
3. He flopped a flush, which given the way the hand has played so far is likely the nuts and wants you to reraise/push

So now villain has put you into a decision where you can either call/raise/fold. Folding is not an option here, you simply do not have enough information to justify mucking your hand.

Lets examing the latter of the options. You suggested raising to 20. This leaves you with ~18 behind and facing a ~45 dollar pot on the river with a hand that is facing a dangerous board. However you also said that you would never fold to a 3-bet all in. I do not feel any players are willing to call your turn reraise that would not call a push here.

Therefore I would prefer to simply push the turn to avoid putting myself in a predicament since not only is any spade bad for your hand, the board pairing, or any a/9 hitting are also scare cards.

I mean, after reraising the turn being forced to check behind on the river if another 6 hits seems weak.

Now the option I said I preferred was calling the turn lead. I suggested this because I feel that not only do you not have enough information to fold you also do not have enough information to push/reraise. There are 3 hands that are calling (or going all in) versus your reraise. Those are AA/AK with the ace of spades, or a flopped flush. All the drawing hands are going to fold and unless he is completely horrendous so will KJ/KT. So basically we are either marginally ahead (probably about 70% to win the hand) or we are way behind.

Now you do keep the other drawing hands in by calling, but you also keep the pot small with your marginal hand. I suggest calling because after he calls your flop re-raise something in my head screams "danger will robinson!" and I feel your goal here should be to get to a showdown as cheaply as possible since your hand has showdown value.

Your hand is good, not great, and has equity versus his range until you push the turn. When he calls he either has AA (maybe AK) or more likely a flush. There are just many more ways to get dealt suited cards than AA/AK with the ace of spades.

I don't think pushing the turn is bad so to speak. I just don't prefer it. I like to jab, jab, jab then force my opponent to do something that I want him to do instead of reacting to his actions. If villain is a fish, you are going to have plenty of opportunities to stack him. This is not a tournament, you have time. You are more likely to get yourself stacked here though than you are to stack your would be victim. This is a concerning issue.

Pushing the turn gets much worse as you increase in limits though. I would say in 25nl pushing the turn is fine, in 50nl it is marginal, in 100nl very sub optimal, and at 200nl it is a huge leak.

I do think raising over half your stack instead of pushing is almost always bad poker though.

FWIW villain prolly had the nuts since most other flushes are going to 3-bet all in on the flop but since you reraised the flop he cold called and threw out a small bet on the turn knowing that you had a hand worthy of reraising but that you reraising would pot committ yourself.

It is a tricky hand to play though, and I would have preferred that the OP did not post the actions after his decisions since they might have tainted opinions

[Daniel LeClaire]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see you reraise preflop.

This line means different things. Some guys do this to trap you into raising, others are just making blocking bets. I think raising turn all in is fine. Actually I think it's the best play.

Let's say he is trapping on the turn. You flat call turn. Now the river is a blank and he bets pot. Are you going to fold? Probably not. So you might as well take advantage of the times that he is drawing/blocking and shove the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the problem here is that, like people have said already, villains calling range of a turn shove may be too narrow to make this the correct play. And I think the turn shove shows more strength than calling and so if river is a blank, a value-bet if villain checks is more likely to get paid off.(Note: I would value bet here because he's loose, but against a tight villain, I wouldn't, because I would often be behind)

[/ QUOTE ]

I highly doubt his calling range is so tight that it makes a shove unprofitable.

If you just call turn and villain checks river you aren't getting any more value. Your chance to value bet is the turn. Once he's missed his draw he's folding.

So again, if he's ahead he'll shove river and you pay off anyway. If he's behind you let him price the turn and then fold the river unimproved.

[Daniel LeClaire]

[ QUOTE ]
..There are 3 hands that are calling (or going all in) versus your reraise. Those are AA/AK with the ace of spades, or a flopped flush. All the drawing hands are going to fold and unless he is completely horrendous so will KJ/KT. So basically we are either marginally ahead (probably about 70% to win the hand) or we are way behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a ridiculous statement to make. Assuming that this player, or any unknown at 50NL, is only calling with that tight of a range.

[orange]

this looks fine.

[Rounder101]

Well played. Turn is absolutely a shove.