DaycareInferno
08-24-2007, 05:35 PM
so i was thinking earlier today about some of the more typical situations that we encounter that people disagree about a lot, and that are difficult to evaluate. i think the
most common example is something like this:
100bb stacks
hero raises utg with A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO calls.
flop is 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
hero leads out, CO raises pot.
now we're more likely being put to a decision for our stack. with a hand that may or may not be best, and may or may not get called by worse hands. of course, how what we decide is based on a lot of things. our image, our opponent's stats, etc. but how heavily does each factor weigh, and are there other factors that we might be overlooking that could be more telling?
the reason i bring this up, is because i was thinking earlier about my nl10 stats versus nl25 stats. when i was playing nl10, i ran 19/15, and the only hands i would coldcall with pf was pp. when i moved up to nl25, there were a lot more players open raising as opposed to limping, so suddenly my vpip went down using the same pf strategy. to offset that, i start cold calling with a few more hands, like sc, and raising a few more garbage hands in position. end result, i'm still running at 19/15, but my range in the above situation is different. now i'm more likely to be on a draw than before, despite the fact that my big 3 stats are pretty much exactly the same.
this makes a pretty big difference, because at nl10, if i was the villain, shoving would be almost pointless, because i would have 1 of two things:
a) a set
b) air
unless i bluffed a lot, you would be taking far the worst of it, because i would stack you when you push, but you could never stack me.
at nl25, its a different story, because there's more hands in my range. 56c/46c/9Tc/9Jc are all possibilities, on top of the possibility that i am bluffing, which could tip the scales, even though that's only 4 hands. if i were even looser, then you could add a lot more hands like Axc. if i were more agressive, then you could also add in other sc that don't make a combo. that's getting away from my point a little bit though.
the point is, vpip only tells you so much, because there's many different ways a player can arrive at that number. they could have a very tight calling range, and a very loose raising range. they could have a very tight raising range, and a very loose calling range. pfr doesn't neccessarily solve the problem either, because if a person limps into pots, that's not the same as them calling a preflop raise. they may limp loose, but call raises tight.
my thought is that a person's "calls preflop raise%" might be a more telling stat in these situations, and perhaps is a bit overlooked. i really don't have the evidence in front of me to say that for certain though.
i would like to go through my hands in pt and look at the stats of villains and what they showed up with in these situations. the first problem that i've run into, is that i do not see the cpr stat in pt. i have it in pahud, but i don't know of a way to look at a player's stats via pahud. i don't save my original hh, so all i have is my pt database and hud cache. does anyone know of an easy way to evaluate statistics other than the ones pt offers?
most common example is something like this:
100bb stacks
hero raises utg with A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO calls.
flop is 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
hero leads out, CO raises pot.
now we're more likely being put to a decision for our stack. with a hand that may or may not be best, and may or may not get called by worse hands. of course, how what we decide is based on a lot of things. our image, our opponent's stats, etc. but how heavily does each factor weigh, and are there other factors that we might be overlooking that could be more telling?
the reason i bring this up, is because i was thinking earlier about my nl10 stats versus nl25 stats. when i was playing nl10, i ran 19/15, and the only hands i would coldcall with pf was pp. when i moved up to nl25, there were a lot more players open raising as opposed to limping, so suddenly my vpip went down using the same pf strategy. to offset that, i start cold calling with a few more hands, like sc, and raising a few more garbage hands in position. end result, i'm still running at 19/15, but my range in the above situation is different. now i'm more likely to be on a draw than before, despite the fact that my big 3 stats are pretty much exactly the same.
this makes a pretty big difference, because at nl10, if i was the villain, shoving would be almost pointless, because i would have 1 of two things:
a) a set
b) air
unless i bluffed a lot, you would be taking far the worst of it, because i would stack you when you push, but you could never stack me.
at nl25, its a different story, because there's more hands in my range. 56c/46c/9Tc/9Jc are all possibilities, on top of the possibility that i am bluffing, which could tip the scales, even though that's only 4 hands. if i were even looser, then you could add a lot more hands like Axc. if i were more agressive, then you could also add in other sc that don't make a combo. that's getting away from my point a little bit though.
the point is, vpip only tells you so much, because there's many different ways a player can arrive at that number. they could have a very tight calling range, and a very loose raising range. they could have a very tight raising range, and a very loose calling range. pfr doesn't neccessarily solve the problem either, because if a person limps into pots, that's not the same as them calling a preflop raise. they may limp loose, but call raises tight.
my thought is that a person's "calls preflop raise%" might be a more telling stat in these situations, and perhaps is a bit overlooked. i really don't have the evidence in front of me to say that for certain though.
i would like to go through my hands in pt and look at the stats of villains and what they showed up with in these situations. the first problem that i've run into, is that i do not see the cpr stat in pt. i have it in pahud, but i don't know of a way to look at a player's stats via pahud. i don't save my original hh, so all i have is my pt database and hud cache. does anyone know of an easy way to evaluate statistics other than the ones pt offers?