NL10 Set

[chawla2890]

should i be folding this, or stack this off?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

BB: $12.25
Hero (SB): $10.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt T/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
Hero calls $0.05, BB checks

Flop: ($0.20) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $0.20</font>, Hero calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.60) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $0.60</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.80</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $11.95</font>, Hero calls all-in for $8.40
Uncalled bet of $1.75 returned to BB
Uncalled bet of $0.00 returned to Hero

River: ($21) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $21.00 ($0.25 Rake)

BB had 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (three of a kind, Sevens) and WON (+$10.25)
Hero had T/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (three of a kind, Sevens) and LOST (-$10.50)

[vixticator]

You beat more hands than losing to... so, yeah. Raise flop a good amount of the time.

[Rican 904]

There's a phrase I like... Don't go broke in unraised pots.

Learn it. Apply It. Live it.

[VivaHate]

Raise flop yes, stack off to massive overbet very villain dependant, i'm mostly folding here if he hasn't overbet before.

[Student Caine]

Semantics: this is trips - not a set. Set is when you hold a pocket pair and the board gives you your 3 of a kind.

The hand: Heads up at 10NL I go broke with this a lot, unless I have some sick read on the villain. How many hands did you play HU with this guy before this hand? Typically in HU play especially at 10NL you can get a very good feel for what exactly he would shove with (he makes a huge "here ya friggin' go" bet here).

That being said if we want to try and look at this mathematically:

We have trips with a decent kicker. If we make the assumption that villain has a 7 and run the whole range of 7's we are up against, Poker Stove says we are about even:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: <font color="blue"> 50.396% </font> 40.96% 09.43% 775 178.50 { A7s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 72s+, A7o, K7o, Q7o, Jh7d, T7o, 97o, 87o, 72o+ }
Hand 1: <font color="blue"> 49.604%</font> 40.17% 09.43% 760 178.50 { Tc7c }

This obviously does not take into account an overpair, a bluff (would need a decent read to assume he was risking his stack to win that pot), or villain already having a full house. If we figure in realistic overpairs to the rest of the board (say 66-99; I would discount TT+ due to the flat call) and add those to his range, as well as the pocket pairs needed for villain to have a boat we get:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: <font color="blue"> 41.096% </font> 35.04% 06.05% 1033 178.50 { 99-55, 22, A7s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 72s+, A7o, K7o, Q7o, Jh7d, T7o, 97o, 87o, 72o+ }
Hand 1: <font color="blue"> 58.904% </font> 52.85% 06.05% 1558 178.50 { Tc7c }

So again, at best we are a 3:2 favorite if we really stretch out villains range, or a coin flip it we assume any 7 for villain. If we want to look the other way and assume any 7's, 55, or 22 we get:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: <font color="blue"> 54.522% </font> 46.24% 08.28% 997 178.50 { 55, 22, A7s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 72s+, A7o, K7o, Q7o, Jh7d, T7o, 97o, 87o, 72o+ }
Hand 1: <font color="blue"> 45.478% </font> 37.20% 08.28% 802 178.50 { Tc7c }

So our equity doesn't plummet by any means if we add the 55's and 22's to the equation.

Looking at all of this, I think we call it a coin flip and assume that the money already in the pot makes this a good call. <font color="red">Anyone think I am off my rocker here? </font>

[Student Caine]

Oh wow, just for fun I ran this hand with us having 9/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif and it is amazing the difference that one pip makes:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: <font color="blue"> 57.162% </font> 47.73% 09.43% 903 178.50 { A7s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 72s+, A7o, K7o, Q7o, Jh7d, T7o, 97o, 87o, 72o+ }
Hand 1: <font color="blue"> 42.838% </font> 33.40% 09.43% 632 178.50 { 9c7c }

No real meat here...just some nerdy pokerstove goodness.

[Klopzi]

[ QUOTE ]
should i be folding this, or stack this off?

[/ QUOTE ]

Stack off. Would you be asking if he didn't have you out-kicked?

[Micro Donk]

[ QUOTE ]
There's a phrase I like... Don't go broke in unraised pots.

Learn it. Apply It. Live it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i always thought this rule is way too general to be useful. you arent stacking off the 2nd nuts with say KQs in the BB and you flop a flush?

[Holdem_Hussl4]

Insta-call.

[orange]

[ QUOTE ]
There's a phrase I like... Don't go broke in unraised pots.

Learn it. Apply It. Live it.

[/ QUOTE ]
wrong

OP,
this is okay i suppose.