[50NL] I 3bet AK and hit a low board vs a nitty TAG

[ciro bonano]

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed)

SB ($31.60)
Hero ($48.85)
UTG ($52.45)
Button ($43.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, Button calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7.25</font>, UTG folds, Button calls $5.50.

Flop: ($16.50) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...

Notice that the preflop-raiser (running 30/20/2.5 over 50 hands) drops.

Villain (button) is 16/11/5 over about 400 mined hands. I'm playing something like 21/17 if he notices.

When he calls my 3bet, what is his range? How much is folding at such a low board? (I thought it was basically mid pairs, and is not folding much; he can't call for setvalue only here (but does he know that?))

If I cbet, how much $?

[.xxxx.]

only hands you're really worried about are mid pairs 77-JJ and T combinations

also 16/11/5's generally repop TT/JJ pf, esp in position

bet enough to make him fold ~$10-12

[Panic__NL]

cbet 13, most of his holdings are mid and low pp, he will fold thehm if he has not improved. His whole line screams pp.

[monkeymaps]

I make a standard c-bet here.
I give him a range of 22-99 maybe a few suited broadways.
looks like he was just trying to flop a set here.

[lanolin]

I agree, this line screams PP, lets say that JJ and TT RePop pre flop, but he's got the button and could call with 99 through 44. All pairs have 6 ways of being dealt, except 88 and 44 only have 3. So there are 4 x 6 = 24 pp that didn't hit, and 6 that did. That's 20% that will call you no matter what. If you include the tens, then it's 27%. So lets say about 1 in 4 times you bet, he calls w/ trips.
You want him to lay down all his other pairs, and if you think you can, you should bet. a 100% lay down rate of all non trips PP means that you can theoretically bet up to 3 times the pot profitably. You could actually push all in right here (36$ to a 16$ pot) if you're sure he would lay down all PP that didn't hit.
But that's just theory!

later

[whyzze]

he called to try and catch a set. cbet and take it down.

[HoldEmNewby]

range: JJ-22, AK, possibly a high suited ace, and maybe some more random junk. The reason I include a high suited ace and random junk in his range is the fact that villain has the button and could have used it as an excuse for calling villains raise the first time around, and could have talking himself into calling your reraise. That said he is a TAG and will not be comfortable in a 3bet pot carrying on with a marginal hand, I think our FE is still very high.

I still bet $11-12 on the flop.