Ohhh Baluga....

[toddxlogan]

Hi all-

Villain in this hand is 40/10/2 over about 200 hands. Thats about all I got.

Again, i'll leave my thoughts to later. Your action?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $29.15
BB: $55.70
UTG: $68.00
Hero (MP): $52.60
CO: $49.70
BTN: $36.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt K/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, BTN calls $3.00

Turn: ($10.75) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $16.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero feels a degree of separation between baluga and his knee-jerk reaction... </font>

[.xxxx.]

How are you applying Beluga to this hand? I'm rusty with the theorem.

fwiw, BTN is committed and you're definitely ahead of his range, repush turn

[VivaHate]

I like a push here. His range includes lots of
weaker kings , also if he's got top pair with the fdraw he could make this play.

[toddxlogan]

Well, to my understanding, that i need to seriously evaluate the strength of my 1-pair hand when facing resistance on the turn.

[Panic__NL]

True but Villian is a shortstack, the flop is not drawless, Villian is somewhat agressive. Taken all of this in consideration I think pushing is good here, your are OOP and you cant be sure he wil be betting a weak king again on the river.

[VivaHate]

Also take into account the fact that his stats show him to be a fish/donk, the baluga theorem should be used against better players.

[lanolin]

This one is quite tough, and I think I might make my decision based on the flow of the game. My image and his image. But my problem with this hand is that it looks like he's trying to get all the chips in the middle: With an mRaise now, and if you call that, you're gonna have to go for the last 15$. It doesn't look like he's trying to get you out of the hand.
But if you've been folding to minRaises on the turn more often...

His range does include some weaker kings, suited kings I think would RR on the flop and not on the turn (and definitely not minimum but would probably push)
His range also includes medium pairs and suited connectors, and the long shot is that he just got his SD card to go with his FD. (7h9h, 5h7h, 4h5h). Or he could have 2p like 68s, or trips (6, 8 or 3).

My last option is going all in now. That makes him money with his big hands that beat you, and let him get away from most the hands that were bluffing (except maybe KQ, KJ). I'm not so sure he would be mRaising on the turn with a draw.

I'd rather call here, see the river, and probably call the river- becasue I don't really put him on a big draw, and I want to let him at least bluff again if he is on a bluff.

But I think there's a good chance you're beat and don't have many outs; 5 at best. I would put this down to a judgement call. Would he make this play with a weak king? Have you made many 2 barrel bluffs lately that you had to lay down? -are you perceived to be solid and dangerous or tight and weak? etc.

later.

[traz]

against this guy I get it in happily and expect him to show KT-KQ

[HoldEmNewby]

a push is def. in order.

I think your flop bet is leaving money on the table. Bet $4 on the flop.

[filsteal]

I think a player like this will play a set this way more often than he'll play KQ-KT this way, but of course his flop range has more KQ-KT than sets.

He also could have the same hand as you, because you don't know if he'll 3-bet AK preflop.

I think a push is probably right, but I'm not happy about it.

[humP]

Puuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuush wtf

[Daniel LeClaire]

This guy doesn't seem very aggressive. Seems like your average calling station. And this is exactly how a donkey plays a huge hand. I can't imagine that your good here very often.

He could have a set, but I wouldn't put a hand like K8/K3/K6 or some other two pair combos past him. I'll disagree with everyone and say fold the turn.

[corsakh]

Just fold it. Why would you consider calling a turn raise from a lvl 0 villain with one pair?

Try to see a difference between bluff raises and value raises. If he wanted to bluff you, he would do so on the flop.

[Danielmk]

I think I will fold it too, he is not that an agressive player and this minraise on the turn means he doesn't want to loose you from the hand. If he would raise with FD and a SD he would raise more because he will have some FE, seminluff minraise imo has no FE.

[Chomp]

Well played up to and including turn bet, although I go $3.15 on flop.

IMO, while we are surely ahead of villain's range up to the point he minraises us, after that, his range changes and we are not in such great shape against that new range.

So I think I'm with corsakh...folding now is the difference between the hand costing $13 and $36.

Fwiw though, at the table I probably get it in more often than not. But in the cold light of day, hmmm, not sure it's right tbh.

Just IMO.

[shyturtle27]

I'm 100% happily committed here so just get it all in. We go to the flop with an stack-to-pot ratio of seven against a loose opponent which is where we want it to be. No draws hit on the turn. We're ahead of his range so I committ easily.

[traz]

to those of you saying fold...

How do you think villain plays KT-KQ?

[members_only]

Call, call, call

Maybe min-raise flop

[sww]

Never fold tptk for 70bb...

[Panic__NL]

[ QUOTE ]
Never fold tptk for 70bb...

[/ QUOTE ]

In what book of wisdom have you found this general rule?

[shyturtle27]

why, why, why? if we're going to put any more money in the pot then the opponent is going to committ the rest of his stack anyway. Just poooosh.

[members_only]

I was replying to traz's question, not suggesting a line for OP to take

[Daniel LeClaire]

[ QUOTE ]
to those of you saying fold...

How do you think villain plays KT-KQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he calls flop and then min-raises the turn with those hands. He would just call down. That's what calling stations do and he, for sure, is a calling station.

[sww]

But his line would be quite ok for KT, of course it doesnt mean anything since he is not ok. btw, 40/10/2 is not a calling station but a semimaniac. AF 2 is not low at all given his preflop stats.

[traz]

This guy is not a calling station. His stats are very typical of a player who sees flops until he hits one, and then stacks off like a donk. He think he's slowplaying you!

Given stack sizes, odds, and the typical style of this player, this is such an auto push

[Daniel LeClaire]

[ QUOTE ]
But his line would be quite ok for KT, of course it doesnt mean anything since he is not ok. btw, 40/10/2 is not a calling station but a semimaniac. AF 2 is not low at all given his preflop stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't use AF, personally. I don't think it's a good representation of how aggressive a player is. I constantly had weak-tight players with high AF because of how AF is calculated. If anything I think his preflop stats are more of an indicator of how he plays.

[ICMoney]

For the pushers - would you still push if each of you started with 100bb?

I have a tough time in these spots.

Thanks.

[shyturtle27]

No way. That is a place where you can fold according to the baluga theorum. The stack-to-pot ratio on the flop would be too high to committ against even such a loose opponent. When 100BB you need to try to play smaller pots with TPTK.

[traz]

Against this guy I would absolutely get it in with 100bb stacks. This isn't some tag, it's a laggy fish.

Also, baluga theorem is best applied to c/c, c/r. It's not nearly as reliable in this kind of situation.

[VivaHate]

[ QUOTE ]
Against this guy I would absolutely get it in with 100bb stacks. This isn't some tag, it's a laggy fish.

Also, baluga theorem is best applied to c/c, c/r. It's not nearly as reliable in this kind of situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, this fish would be the reason i'm at this table, and this would be the sort of hand i'd be waiting for to stack him.He's not complete calling station as someone said earlier AF2 includes plenty of raises.

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
This guy is not a calling station. His stats are very typical of a player who sees flops until he hits one, and then stacks off like a donk. He think he's slowplaying you!

Given stack sizes, odds, and the typical style of this player, this is such an auto push

[/ QUOTE ]
QFMFT! This is exactly the kind of player that will overplay tpgk. Folding this is a crime against poker.

[Holdem_Hussl4]

[ QUOTE ]
against this guy I get it in happily and expect him to show KT-KQ

[/ QUOTE ]

[MusashiStyle]

this is pretty close imo, i think i usually call because he is
somewhat shortstacked and i would fold if he had a fullstack probably (no reads).

[EricDarland]

Turn minraises are strong as hell. Fold

[f1sh4d1nner]

villain does think he is slowplaying you with a hand like k10-kq, shoveeee after his minbet

[ryang]

im going with the push, this is k10-kq enough for it to be profitable.

[orange]

given stacks, i think that shoving is okay. if he was deeper i might consider folding.

[LT22]

[ QUOTE ]
Also take into account the fact that his stats show him to be a fish/donk, the baluga theorem should be used against better players.

[/ QUOTE ]

the Baluga Theorem was established at uNL b/c nobody plays back unless they have greater than 1pr, this theory is JUST AS applicable to donks as regulars