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View Full Version : Help with river value bet size.


QuietEarner
08-23-2007, 02:42 PM
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

Hero (SB): $59.10
BB: $25.65
UTG: $51.50
MP: $55.60
CO: $80.80
BTN: $29.30

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 34/12/1.2 Plays TPGK hands a little over aggressive, and plays TPWK very passively. He is also a calling station with second pair type hands. Never saw any evidence of him floating flops.

UTG limps very often, not concerned with him preflop.
</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.30, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.50</font>, BB calls $1.20, UTG calls $1.20

Flop: ($4.50) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.30</font>, BB calls $3.30, UTG folds

Turn: ($11.10) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7.00</font>, BB calls $7.00

River: ($25.10) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)

<font color="green">Hero bets ????</font>
<font color="red">Villain has $13.85 left</font>

Is this just an easy put him all in, or is that over doing it.
IF I PUSH: I figure he would fold missed flush, possibly fold a second pair, 75% sure would call with Qx up to T, 95% sure he calls with Qpaint or better.

He calls all of the above for half his remaining, except flush draw.
I'm sure some math problem solves this but I don't know it, and prob couldn't calculate fast enough at the table.

netstorm
08-23-2007, 02:45 PM
Betting more on the turn (someting like $8,50 - $9) would solve this problem. You can easily put him allin on the river then, since he's commited with any other Q. As played, I still push this allin.

QuietEarner
08-23-2007, 03:00 PM
Good point I miss this alot, betting a turn amount that allows more river value. leak in progress of fixing(hopefully). To much looking at amount of pot, rather than pot and players stack.

KEW
08-23-2007, 03:09 PM
River bet size is not important...If villain is CALLING on the river he will call for the rest of his stack..What is more important is what range on this villain is wider villains CALLING range or villain BETTING range....Will villain bet a busted draw??? Is villain calling off his stack with an under pair???

dnord
08-23-2007, 03:13 PM
The clever math is basically: how many more calls can you induce by making smaller flop bet? Is there any smaller bet that gets you significantly more calls? I don't think there is. (I don't think that's why we play micro, either.)

My only problem with the hand as played is that I don't know what weaker Q fits into his calling-a-5x-raise-from-BB range. Obv. we're delighted if he calls all-in with QJ, but... really? Are we up against that? If he's passive, check-call should do the trick. If he's super-super passive, then check-fold fits the bill.

QuietEarner
08-23-2007, 03:16 PM
his range is Q anything, he plays way to many hands. The 5x bet probably doesn't concern him as is standard for me with a limper in the pot.