JJ - SB fires pot size on ragged flop 3 spades

villain is thing85 a solid reg on Stars 14/10/5 stats. I`m 18/13/3 at the table. He respects my game. IMO he has a set here. Comments appreciated

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Hero ($50)
Button ($48)
SB ($48.75)
BB ($53.90)
UTG ($61.70)
MP ($19.45)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $2.25, BB calls $2, MP folds.

Flop: ($8) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $6</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $6.

Turn: ($20) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $12</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $20

[Eddi]

If you're really putting him on a set, why not call? You have 11 outs, so your chances are ~23% while the pot odds are ~36% and I'd think you have enough implied odds to make it worth the difference.

[sightless]

why is he betting so small on turn ):
I cant fold to such small bet

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're really putting him on a set, why not call? You have 11 outs, so your chances are ~23% while the pot odds are ~36% and I'd think you have enough implied odds to make it worth the difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good thinking. Except Hero is drawing dead to a made flush a certain % of the time.

[toddxlogan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're really putting him on a set, why not call? You have 11 outs, so your chances are ~23% while the pot odds are ~36% and I'd think you have enough implied odds to make it worth the difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good thinking. Except Hero is drawing dead to a made flush a certain % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that and implied odds are next to nil as a player with a set cannot possibly have a spade here (assuming it was flopped). I do not think a decent reg pays off to a fairly obviously drawing 4-flush on the river.

OP: well played.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're really putting him on a set, why not call? You have 11 outs, so your chances are ~23% while the pot odds are ~36% and I'd think you have enough implied odds to make it worth the difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good thinking. Except Hero is drawing dead to a made flush a certain % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that and implied odds are next to nil as a player with a set cannot possibly have a spade here (assuming it was flopped). I do not think a decent reg pays off to a fairly obviously drawing 4-flush on the river.

OP: well played.

[/ QUOTE ]

correct

[corsakh]

If he has a set, you have 11 clean outs. Whats the deal with folding? You almost have direct odds to draw.

He stacks off on jack completely and calls a small bet on a spade.

[toddxlogan]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has a set, you have 11 clean outs. Whats the deal with folding? You almost have direct odds to draw.

He stacks off on jack completely and calls a small bet on a spade.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we positive villain does not have a flush? Do you feel great about stacking off with your rivered set of J's versus a reg who threw pot bets on flop and turn on a monotone board? I think thats the problem. No matter what comes on the river, we can't feel great about anything.

[corsakh]

More than comfortable. A solid 14/10 has no SC from the SB in his calling range whatsoever, at least in this relative position. A higher spade is just as unlikely.

[Eddi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're really putting him on a set, why not call? You have 11 outs, so your chances are ~23% while the pot odds are ~36% and I'd think you have enough implied odds to make it worth the difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good thinking. Except Hero is drawing dead to a made flush a certain % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that and implied odds are next to nil as a player with a set cannot possibly have a spade here (assuming it was flopped). I do not think a decent reg pays off to a fairly obviously drawing 4-flush on the river.

OP: well played.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying you wouldn't call e.g. a 1/5 pot bet if you had a set and there was a 4-flush on the board (the answer is of course you would, since otherwise you'd be an incredibly easy bluff target)? He doesn't need to bet more than that for the implied to work out fine.

I agree w/ aj, he could already be drawing dead against e.g. a suited A, which of course diminishes his odds, however I was just commenting on the OP's confidence of a set and his fold.

[toddxlogan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're really putting him on a set, why not call? You have 11 outs, so your chances are ~23% while the pot odds are ~36% and I'd think you have enough implied odds to make it worth the difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good thinking. Except Hero is drawing dead to a made flush a certain % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that and implied odds are next to nil as a player with a set cannot possibly have a spade here (assuming it was flopped). I do not think a decent reg pays off to a fairly obviously drawing 4-flush on the river.

OP: well played.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying you wouldn't call e.g. a 1/5 pot bet if you had a set and there was a 4-flush on the board (the answer is of course you would, since otherwise you'd be an incredibly easy bluff target)? He doesn't need to bet more than that for the implied to work out fine.

I agree w/ aj, he could already be drawing dead against e.g. a suited A, which of course diminishes his odds, however I was just commenting on the OP's confidence of a set and his fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. My thinking is/was that because of the % possibility that villain has a flush, we actually need significantly more implied odds than just the direct "he has set I have flush" difference. Which means we need to bet more on a river spade to make it a +EV play. The bitch of that, of course, is that we may already be losing to a high flush. Further, villain could have something like a 9Ts or something, in which case we are actually drawing to , what, 6 clean outs?

[TheBobn]

Who is villain?

[ QUOTE ]
Who is villain?

[/ QUOTE ]

" thing85 " on Stars