Bluff at 4-tone board... ever +EV?

[Cormia]

Reads: Nothing specific, except he's really passive and he's a CS.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($53.20)</font>
Button ($46.40)
SB ($26.60)
BB ($27.60)
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($24.75)</font>

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $1.

Flop: ($2.85) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.25</font>, UTG calls $2.25.

Turn: ($7.35) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($7.35) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.5</font>

[JustARogue]

I think you only ever get called here if you are losing. Its really hard for him to get this decision wrong. I would check behind on river.

Also, this might just be me, but when I read 4-tone board I thought you had all 4 suits out, not 4 of one suit.

[Micro Donk]

well hes calling it a bluff...but i dont like it, your hand has at least a small bit of showdown value, let it show down

[Cormia]

You're right, 4-tone is all 4 suits. This is 4 to a flush.

I'm just never sure in these spots, with a mediumish pot whether it is ever worth trying to bluff out a random flush. Or sets/str8s for that matter.

[kaz2107]

u said he is a calling station. bluffing calling stations is NEVER a good idea. not to mention u have showdown value. most of the hands he is folding u r already ahead of. this spot sux basically. i would like it more if u had 72o or w/e without a club

[Cormia]

I know bluffing CS is (almost) never a good idea, but that's mostly when you're repping sets or str8s or something harder to see than one single club.

I'm really just not sure how much SD value I actually have. Between, the str8s, flushes, sets, trips and everything else, I cannot come up with a hand I could beat.

Check-check just seems like a good way to guarantee losing.

[Shizzle12345]

bet the turn, and if hes a tight player bet pot on river as played. I like it since sometimes they fold small flushes, and usually they dont have a club. But only do this if you know they cant fold.

[Cormia]

He's a loose calling station...

Or were you speaking more generally?

[JustARogue]

how much of a calling station is he? By that, I mean has he ever shown down K high or lower?

Because the only thing u can possible get called by and win a pair of jacks or tens. Hes not folding any flush, any ace or any 8 here or KQ here.

[bored]

I'd check this behind.

Any bet you make will be a bluff and it isn't wise to bluff a calling station. Any hand that calls here has you beat.

Edit:

You need your opponent to fold 38% of the time for this to be profitable. I'm not sure he folds enough for this to be a good bluff, especially considering the fact that you read him to be a calling station.

You have the option to check behind and I'd take it.

[choccypie]

Pro calling stations are not bluffable, their job is to call to the end and suck out on you with mediocre hands /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

It's best to check it down, as if he has any /images/graemlins/club.gif he has you beat.

[Romanis]

Why bluff? If he hasn't got a club he's likely behind, if he has a club he'll call you. He might even call with hands like 8x or QK if he's very loose-passive.

[toddxlogan]

Why didn't you bet the turn?

[corsakh]

I always bet here if checked to, but a much smaller amount. Be realistic, he is not folding 5c here 40% of the time.

And since you don't have a high club you cant give a free card and need to bet the turn.