NL10 - JJ - A Preflop Dilemma

[JustARogue]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $18.65
BB: $20.20
UTG: $7.20
Hero (MP): $7.95
CO: $10.00
BTN: $17.90

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $0.40</font>, Hero calls $0.40, CO calls $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, <font color="red">SB raises to $3.00</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $7.95</font>

I'm not fully stacked here because I just lost a hand and didn't hit the reload chips button fast enough.

My thought process on the hand is to call with JJ in position on the raiser and get aggressive on any flop without an ace on it. I don't like to two callers behind me, but figure that the SB re-raise is just trying to pick the juicy pot right then and there. I figure push now and don't get out played on the flop.

I figure I'm only getting called by KK+ and AK+ and ran it through Pokerstove:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.081% 39.87% 00.21% 114702624 596634.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 59.919% 59.71% 00.21% 171771180 596634.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

Does my fold equity make this push ok?

[stickdude]

[ QUOTE ]
Does my fold equity make this push ok?

[/ QUOTE ]

SB only has to call $5 more in a $12 pot. I don't think you really have any fold equity here. Does SB have a history of trying to steal raised pots like this one?

[JustARogue]

This situation hasn't come up since I sat down.

[gobby888]

No reads on Villain?

Villain might call your all-in with QQ, since he's already committed 1/3 of his stack in this hand.

Not sure of the fold equity question, I'll leave that to the more experienced uNlers

[shark_fishin]

3bet JJ pre-flop, fold to a 4bet.

[Restlys]

btw you seem to know your way around fold equity calculations, mind telling me where you got that sorta info?

[JustARogue]

I talked to some friends and we concluded that hes probably only 3-betting this with TT+, AQ+

Each pocket pair, 6 ways
Each overs, 16 ways

Calling (KK+, AK) = 12+16 = 28
Folding (QQ-TT, AQ) = 18+16 = 34
Total = 28+34 = 62

EV calc...
pick it up right away + get called and win + get called and lose
34/62*1*4.2 + 28/62*.4*9.15 + 28/62*.6*-7.95 = 1.8

Does this look right?

[JustARogue]

And again including QQ in his calling range.

pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Calling (QQ+, AK) = 18+16 = 34
Folding (JJ-TT, AQ) = 12+16 = 28
Total = 28+34 = 62

EV calc...
pick it up right away + get called and win + get called and lose
28/62*1*4.2 + 34/62*.36*9.15 + 34/62*.64*-7.95 = .91

edit: did this as per gobby888's post

[JustARogue]

One last time, assuming stickdude is right and I have no fold equity.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.876% 45.83% 01.04% 268395396 6112398.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 53.124% 52.08% 01.04% 304987776 6112398.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

EV calc...
win + lose
.47*9.15 + .53*-7.95 = .09

Obviously I didn't run all these numbers at the time, but in retrospect... Is this shove ever wrong?