Boom! AKs - Work with me here uNL...

[hennnerz]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
4 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $28.45
Button: $28.45
SB: $30.45
BB: $5.95

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($2.25, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1.5</font>, SB calls.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($5.25, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, SB calls.

River: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($13.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB is all-in $25.45</font>, Hero feels like a girl for folding, but the call, it's just so tempting! So whats your move?

SB here runs 32/13 with a postflop AF of 2.75 however the sample is less than 50 hands.

[MusashiStyle]

he has pocket 5's but call anyway.
that's what i would do probably.

[Antinome]

I broke my mouse calling.

[MusashiStyle]

[ QUOTE ]
I broke my mouse calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah this is my thought too even though you are beat sometimes it's just no way u can fold thsi without reads.

[hennnerz]

Cheers, do you two comment on the same threads all the time? Hence the similar post count?!

I called. He won. I swore.

[yapee]

If we're good here like 50% of the time this is a mighty profitable call. I think we are.

[derosnec]

it would be nice to know how often villain folds to cbets, but with a small sample size that's tough

so, let's try combinations.

on the flop, you are behind are 3 combos of 44, ahead of 3 combos of KQ, 3 of KJ, and 3 of KT (let's say he folds K9 and lower pf). And you're tied with 3 combos of AK.

So, looking good so far. You can weight them though, like less combos for AK (since he might 3bet PF with that) and less of KT (since he might fold those pf). So, let's say 1 combo of KT and one of AK.

On the turn, he could have floated with 77. so that's 3 more combos you're behind.

Score so far: you're ahead of (weighted) 8 combos, behind 6, and tied with 1.

On the river, could he have called down flop and turn with 55? I doubt it. But anything is possible. Let's assign 1/2 a combo for 55.

So, we end up with ahead of 8, behind 6.5, and tied with 1.

You need to be good about 40% of the time to make this a neutral EV call. So it's look okay. But some tweaking here and there might lead to different results (like, maybe he calls pf with K7 or K4, i dunno; or maybe his river push, rather than just a 2/3 pot means he has you crushed, etc).

Overall though I think you have odds to call.

[jerryf1914]

[ QUOTE ]
If we're good here like 50% of the time this is a mighty profitable call. I think we are.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are never beating check call check call shove with trips

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If we're good here like 50% of the time this is a mighty profitable call. I think we are.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are never beating check call check call shove with trips

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it never possible that a really bad villain plays KQ this way?

[yellowbastard]

If you're playing for long-term results, I think you call here.

[Lego05]

He could conceivably have any K.


I call. You will lose to full houses sometimes.

[hennnerz]

Aren't we all?

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If we're good here like 50% of the time this is a mighty profitable call. I think we are.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are never beating check call check call shove with trips

[/ QUOTE ]lol i hope this is a joke. he has Kx here a ton. i have my mouse waiting over the call button bfore he even makes his bet.

[StubbornRussian]

Ive still yet to see check call check call overbet shove on a paired board like this be anything but a boat or air. I take this line myself if I think villain has trips and cant get away from a big hand.

Still in the heat of battle I call and then let out a barrage of curses at myself.

[DopamineRelease]

[ QUOTE ]
lol i hope this is a joke. he has Kx here a ton. i have my mouse waiting over the call button bfore he even makes his bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

[StubbornRussian]

Im a nit though so I dont see crazy lines like this with Kx like a laggier player might. If you have a tight image than this is not Kx very often imo.

[Jw513]

Villain has 77 but I call anyways

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has 77 but I call anyways

[/ QUOTE ]why on earth wouldnt he c/r the turn then???? i say he has Kx here 65% of the time and a boat 30% of the time and random garbage here 5% of the time makin this a clear and easy call

[bored]

I call vs 32/13. He'd have to be much tighter both preflop and postflop for me to lay this down.

Also, Villain's line is terrible with a flopped boat.

[bored]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain has 77 but I call anyways

[/ QUOTE ]why on earth wouldnt he c/r the turn then???? i say he has Kx here 65% of the time and a boat 30% of the time and random garbage here 5% of the time makin this a clear and easy call

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he had 44 and was donk slowplaying the boat. Still an easy call vs this villain for me though.

[youngKR]

Call all the time for me.

Kx is very conceivable like others said, if he hit the boat at any point well thats the way the cookie crumbles.

[naTpuk85]

Why call when its obvious he has pocket pair and now has a full house?

[Sweir]

Pretty easy call, if it wasn't then villain could probably shove here profitably on a bluff.

[choccypie]

I can't fold this, but if he reveals 44, 55 or 77 I'll put it down to being unfortunate.

[corsakh]

44s, does not look much anything else but pocket fours sooooooted.

[robinmbuk]

Although it seems like your beaten by a small pp who has a fh, you'd be supprised how often villian has been 'slowplaying' an hand like KJ on you.

[Fiksdal]

thinking he is just as likely to take this line with Kx as a boat is just silly. His range is clearly weighted towards boats here.