TPTK 3way on a dry board

[KCrow]

Villain is 45/4/0.9 no particular reads.

What would people suggest I do with the turn, a bet leaves me commited to call an all in. The villians states look pretty awful. The board looks so dry. May it have been better to check the flop and bet out on the turn?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $98.30
BB: $54.95
UTG: $80.10
CO: $47.60
Hero (BTN): $51.55

Preflop: Hero is dealt T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.50, CO calls $2.50

Flop: ($9.75) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 Players)
UTG checks, CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8.00</font>, UTG folds, CO calls $8.00

Turn: ($25.75) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero?

[Mrage]

I bet like 18, these types of villains are a mint and you have to be willing to value bet them 3 streets with TPTK/TP2K etc. The times he has you beat/draws out and you have to call a push pale in comparison to how often you take him to valuetown here.

[bob_sacamano]

agree with Mrage. keep betting. a few times you will be against a set. but most of them you will take the pot.

[Stonewalled]

Against a calling station like this, I definitely bet the turn, and fold to a push. That may sound weak b/c of the money you have invested, but I don't see us beating anything that calling station has when he raises AI on the turn. That's actually one of the very nice things about calling stations: they make your fold decisions very easy b/c aggro from them will almost always mean a big hand.

If he calls, I might also bet a brick river. Again, the reason being he's a calling station, they're there to pay off your TPTK. Sometimes it won't work out for you b/c they'll be calling with a big hand, but most of the time it's a good play.

[KCrow]

If I'm going to fold to a push what's a good amount to bet, if I bet $18 and the villain shoves, it's only another $18, I don't see the point in folding to that with TPTK even if it is likely I'm beat.

[Stonewalled]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm going to fold to a push what's a good amount to bet, if I bet $18 and the villain shoves, it's only another $18, I don't see the point in folding to that with TPTK even if it is likely I'm beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would try to set it up in a way that makes it the most likely he'll call off his stack on the turn and river. So, my turn bet will be a little smallish in order to induce him to call there, and then making him feel pot committed on the river. I think $15 on the turn is about right, and then AI for $21 into a $55 pot on the river.

Whether you bet $15 or $18, you would need to fold to a turn AI from this calling station. Say you bet $18: when he raises AI, you would need to decide whether to call another $18 into an $80 pot. 18/80 = 22.5%. So, in order for your call of his AI to be correct, your hand needs to be good at least 22.5% of the time here. And it's not. Not even close. I would estimate it would be good less than 5% of the time. Thus, the only reason in my mind to call is for "meta-game" purposes to show you can't be run over -- but I don't think it's worth it here.

[KCrow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I'm going to fold to a push what's a good amount to bet, if I bet $18 and the villain shoves, it's only another $18, I don't see the point in folding to that with TPTK even if it is likely I'm beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would try to set it up in a way that makes it the most likely he'll call off his stack on the turn and river. So, my turn bet will be a little smallish in order to induce him to call there, and then making him feel pot committed on the river. I think $15 on the turn is about right, and then AI for $21 into a $55 pot on the river.

Whether you bet $15 or $18, you would need to fold to a turn AI from this calling station. Say you bet $18: when he raises AI, you would need to decide whether to call another $18 into an $80 pot. 18/80 = 22.5%. So, in order for your call of his AI to be correct, your hand needs to be good at least 22.5% of the time here. And it's not. Not even close. I would estimate it would be good less than 5% of the time. Thus, the only reason in my mind to call is for "meta-game" purposes to show you can't be run over -- but I don't think it's worth it here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you're saying. I ended up betting $18 and reluctatly calling an all in. I did a little dance when he showed up with T8s. It worked this time but I was trying to figure out an alternative way to play a hand like this so I'm not left with a tough decision.

[Stonewalled]

[ QUOTE ]
I see what you're saying. I ended up betting $18 and reluctatly calling an all in. I did a little dance when he showed up with T8s. It worked this time but I was trying to figure out an alternative way to play a hand like this so I'm not left with a tough decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

The little dance was appropriate. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Over how many hands did you have those numbers? B/c if he has those numbers over a decent sample, this would have been a very uncharacteristic play from a calling station. On the other hand, if this was a small sample size, the info about his being a true calling station is obviously less reliable, making your decision to fold/call decision tougher.

Finally, what was your image? Had you been caught bluffing? Scooping a bunch of pots without showdowns? It's odd that this guy would raise you AI with TPWK when he would have to expect you to call -- question is, why did he think he was doing it for value? Or, again, was he really not a calling station at all?

[KCrow]

Those stats are over a small sample, less than 100. I'd not really been in enough pots to have any kind of image. My guess is that there was no thinking behind his move.