Jacksonville +8 @ New England

[chekthastak]

Is it me or does this seem like such an easy Jacksonville bet? This is a team who literally gets no respect. They finished the season 12-4, won 8 of 9 with their only lost coming to Indy. They've lost only one game by more than 8 and that was at home to Denver. They won at Pitt, have beaten Seattle and Cincy at home. It's not like this team doesn't have any good wins.

I know Tom Brady doesn't lose in the playoffs but at 10-6 do they really deserve to be an 8 point favorite over a hot 12-4 team?

[silentbob]

If Leftwich weren't so rusty, I'd definitely be betting this game. But he hasn't played in over a month, which gives me serious pause (of course, if Leftwich were 100% the Jaguars wouldn't be +8).

I'll probably stay away from betting this one.

[MadTiger]

Seems like fools gold.

[KingNeo]

I think you are mistaken when you describe the Pat as just a "10-6" team and the Jags as a "hot 12-4 team."

If anything it is reversed. Right now the Pats are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and the Jags limped into the playoffs .

The Jags squeaked out a bunch of Ws late in the year against alot of subpar opponents. Nothing that I have seen on the Jags makes me believe they can stay close in this game.

[chekthastak]

It's just the way the Jags are, they play to the level of their comp. To me it doesn't matter if you win by a FG or 2 TDs if you win 8 of 9, it says something about your team. It's impossible to limp into the playoffs winning 8 of 9. This week their comp is very good so they will step up. Their defense doesn't give up many points, all they need is 14 points, no way they give up more than 21.

New England is quickly becoming overrated, if they beat Jacksonville, I can see people calling them the Super Bowl favorite and that certainly shouldn't be the case.

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
Right now the Pats are one of the hottest teams in the NFL

[/ QUOTE ]
New England's wins in December came against three of the weakest offenses in the NFL. So I'm not convinced they can do the job against Jacksonville. But as I said above, there's a lot of uncertainty about Leftwich's ability to jump right back into action.

All that adds up to me not touching this game with a 10-foot pole. IMO, Bengals +3 and Giants -2 are much better bets.

[KingNeo]

I like those games better as well.

[NoChance]

Just like in The Longest Yard, Jacksonville should spend every play in it's first drive throwing footballs at the refs nuts to ensure a fair game.

After that, game on!

[sygamel]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it me or does this seem like such an easy Jacksonville bet? This is a team who literally gets no respect. They finished the season 12-4, won 8 of 9 with their only lost coming to Indy. They've lost only one game by more than 8 and that was at home to Denver. They won at Pitt, have beaten Seattle and Cincy at home. It's not like this team doesn't have any good wins.

I know Tom Brady doesn't lose in the playoffs but at 10-6 do they really deserve to be an 8 point favorite over a hot 12-4 team?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to think Leftwich's health and the 8 pm start have a lot to do with the 7+ line. With a 4 pm start and a healthy Leftwich, I think you're looking at 4.5-5 as the Jags are a legit good squad.