Would this have been a profitable middle?

[Scruff]

Before the game I could have gotten this prop middle:

Longest TD in game
Over 47.5 -130
Under 65.5 -140

It wouldn't have hit, but I wonder if that's something I should have jumped on or not, for future reference. Thanks for any help.

[WarDekar]

Without much analysis, I'd have to say this is a pretty awful middle. Just to make the math easier let's say both were -135.

X% of the time you will win both for +200
(100-X)% of the time you will win one, lose one for -35

So you need to hit the middle roughly 15% of the time to make it break-even. I don't have any real data on this, but I don't think this is even close to be honest with you, maybe someone else will have a better answer but I think you should be glad you didn't take it (clearly, since it lost).

[Scruff]

I guess I was thinking that with these two high-powered offenses, there would be a big play for a TD, so I figured about 5:1 that a TD of 48-64 without another going over would be reasonable . . . I don't have any data either though.

[sygamel]

[ QUOTE ]
Before the game I could have gotten this prop middle:

Longest TD in game
Over 47.5 -130
Under 65.5 -140

It wouldn't have hit, but I wonder if that's something I should have jumped on or not, for future reference. Thanks for any help.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a +EV bet only if the probability of this occuring is roughly 15% or higher.