Absolute badbeat jackpot odds

[Pokerlogist]

Seems like people are wondering whether the Absolute Poker Badbeat Jackpot (APBBJ) tables are worth playing given that extra rake is taken from them. I haven't seen anybody attempt to find the odds of hitting it. Being a bit of a math geek I felt the need to investigate. Using data from http://wizardofodds.com/holdem/badbeat.html
I believe the probability of a hand hitting the AP BBJ (8888 or better getting beat) is 0.00000519 per single hand which is expected to be 1 per 192,678 dealt hands. Some payout goes to everyone dealt at the table whether they are in the final hand or not. So if you are at a table 6 players per table you would be expected to share in the BBJ prize once every 32,113 hands. With 9 players at a table, it would be every 21,409 hands. So for frequent players the chances of getting something back from the BBJ rake are not infinitesimal. In fact, one site reported that when the BBJ prize is greater than $315,000 or so it is net profitable. At the time of this posting, Currenly the prize is at $345,00 and rising. BTW, I don't care if anyone wants or doesn't want to play there. I'm just trying to get the facts.

[Pokeraddict]

Also keep in mind that AP changed the BBJ terms again. It is now only 65% being paid out. 25% reseeds the next BBJ and AP keeps 10% of it. AP now keeps more of the BBJ because 5% more of it will get raked by AP over and over. In your example AP would rake another $1725 because of the extra "double" rake. That will also grow because the extra 5% of the 5% will get 10% raked over and over.

I'm sure AP thought they could pull that extra 5% rollover off without most people noticing it was just a shady way to get more rake. If I had put any BBJ rake in I would be throwing a fit with them since they are now keeping more of the BBJ rake you have already generated. This is what, the 4th time they have changed the BBJ terms?

[Pokerlogist]

Yes, AP has been very inconsisent. They've had changes in BBJ rules, bonus requirements, VIP benefits, rake, every few weeks. Personally I would prefer poker sites to be as "gimmick-free" as possible or at least be consistent for 6 months at a time. Just reduce the rake. Anyway bonusewhores computed the minimum size BBJ prize thresholds for net profit. Checking back it appears that they used the latest AP BBJ rake rules for their calculations, so they may be correct in using the minimum $315,000 (+-%15,000) figures.

BTW their calculations of the amount made per hour for the AP reload bonus seems too low given the new $5 for 20 VIP points structure. I wonder if they have not updated those figures yet. Maybe somebody here can post on that or maybe they already have somewhere.

Thanks for not pointing out my typos.

[Niediam]

I wonder if your number may be off somehow...

I just counted the total number of BBJ tables running which is was 124. And I assume this is one of the slowest times for AP as it is morning US time. Assuming 60 hands a hour (which also seems a little low based upon the lobby but I'd rather estimate low than high) that means 7440 hands an hour. Take 24 hours in a day and we get approximately 179k hands. However I'm defininately not seeing the BBJ hit on average anywhere near once per day...

I'm defininately not a math person so if I did something retarded let me know. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Pokerlogist]

Thanks. You may not be math person but you did the right thing. I just checked the JP tables too and you have a point. [ Do you have an easier way to count the JP tables other than raw counting?]. Something is amiss. I got the badbeat probability from the wizardofodds site which is usually reliable. After checking their approach more carefully, I think that they assummed all qualifying starting hands go to showdown. This is unlikely in real play. Players throw away some potential straight flush cards and some pairs preflop thus lowering the probabilty of hitting the BBJ than the wizardofodds site would suggest. Back to the drawing board. The figures in my original may be much too optimistic. This also throws into question the bonuswhores calculation of minimum profitable JP size since we don't know how it was calculated. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[sixers030409]

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder if your number may be off somehow...

I just counted the total number of BBJ tables running which is was 124. And I assume this is one of the slowest times for AP as it is morning US time. Assuming 60 hands a hour (which also seems a little low based upon the lobby but I'd rather estimate low than high) that means 7440 hands an hour. Take 24 hours in a day and we get approximately 179k hands. However I'm defininately not seeing the BBJ hit on average anywhere near once per day...

I'm defininately not a math person so if I did something retarded let me know. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

His math is def way off, i could prob figure it out but dont really feel like it. All i know is its a long shot in hitting it. maybe he missed a 0 at the end and its 1 in 1,920,000 hands and not 1 in 192,000 hands. that seems much closer to being right

[sixers030409]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. You may not be math person but you did the right thing. I just checked the JP tables too and you have a point. [ Do you have an easier way to count the JP tables other than raw counting?]. Something is amiss. I got the badbeat probability from the wizardofodds site which is usually reliable. After checking their approach more carefully, I think that they assummed all qualifying starting hands go to showdown. This is unlikely in real play. Players throw away some potential straight flush cards and some pairs preflop thus lowering the probabilty of hitting the BBJ than the wizardofodds site would suggest. Back to the drawing board. The figures in my original may be much too optimistic. This also throws into question the bonuswhores calculation of minimum profitable JP size since we don't know how it was calculated. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe its also not taking into account you have to use BOTH holecards?

[Pokerlogist]

I checked and they say that "the bad beat and winning hand must make use of both hole cards." So that part is okay.
I believe the thrown away hole cards are the issue. If, for example, 50% of the potential BBJ hole cards are thrown out in real play then the probability of winning it is pretty much cut in half compared to the showndown probability in the OP. I don't have a reliable estimate of what the actual "folded BBJ hole cards" percentage is right now.

[Pokeraddict]

I have over 750,000 hands at AP in my PT and I've never been at a table that qualified. My avg players per hand is 5.7. The math is certainly off. If not a high volume player would be in a BBJ hand once a week.

[Pokerlogist]

Whew! that's a lot of poker. Surely most of those hands were not at BBJ tables. The promotion has only been on since June 22, 2007. The probability in the OP is definitely inflated. BTW during the first 28 days the BBJ was hit 6 times so that's about 1.5 times a week.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2007/7/prweb541005.htm

[Bobo Fett]

[ QUOTE ]
Surely most of those hands were not at BBJ tables.

[/ QUOTE ]
One doesn't have to be at a BBJ table to determine if a given hand would have qualified if it HAD been a BBJ table. I assume PA just checked for hands that would have qualified, regardless of what table they were actually played at. And I don't think he likes being called Shirley. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[RiverFenix]

His first initial # probably assumes any hand that could potentially hit a BBJ goes to showdown. So you're not playing some hands like 52s UTG even though it could possibly hit.

[Pokerlogist]

My improved “ballpark” estimate of the chances of hitting the AP BBJ is one in every 500,000 dealt hands (probability of .000002 per dealt hand). At a 6-man BBJ full table the chances are .000012 that someone will hit and you share in the prize or 1 in 83,333 rounds. At a 9 person full table it would be .000018 or 1 in 55,555 rounds. These estimates are based on data from the wizardofodds web site, news articles, and poker tracker data using two different methods.

1. Empirical: In a news article, AP officials reported that nearly 1 million hands were played from from July 3 to July11=8 days which would suggest about 125,000 hands per day. Then during the 35 days between June 25 and July 30 we can estimate that 4.375 million hands were played at the BBJ tables. There were 9 BBJ winners during that time period , so someone won approximately every 486,667 hands ( rounding to 1 in 500,000).


2. Mathematical: Based on wizardofodds.com data, the probability of a BBJ –where all hands are seen to showdown- is 0.00000519 per single hand =1 per 192,678 hands. This is assuming all eligible straight flush and pocket pair cards (suited any gap connectors and pp 88 or more) are played until showdown and all BBJ tables have 4 or more persons. We know that players fold many of these potential BBJ hands preflop and and on the flop. On average a typical player sees a flop 20%-30% of the time so 70-80% of all starting hands are folded preflop. Pocket pairs and suited connectors as a group are folded less of he time since they are generally considered stronger and more playable. Using my own poker tracker data as a guide, I get a rough estimate that 40% of the eligible BBJ hands see flop. If anyone can get a more precise estimate of this figure let me know. So using this figure, the probability of a single hand BBJ in actual play is reduced from a showdown level to .40(.00000519)=.00002 or 1 in 500,000 hands which is similar to the empirical result.

[Pokeraddict]

No actually none of the hands are at a BBJ table.

[Gigi]

Does the BBJ really hurt low limits that much when it comes to tables with horrible play?

Let's assume there's two tables, one with pot avg of $9.50 the other $10.00 with a BBJ drop of $0.50. Is there a big difference between the two?

My real life question is should I play a $1/2 limit bbj table if the avg pot size is $16?

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]
Does the BBJ really hurt low limits that much when it comes to tables with horrible play?

Let's assume there's two tables, one with pot avg of $9.50 the other $10.00 with a BBJ drop of $0.50. Is there a big difference between the two?

My real life question is should I play a $1/2 limit bbj table if the avg pot size is $16?

[/ QUOTE ]


Let's put it this way...

In my experience on a rather good 1/2 limit full ring table like you are talking about a very good player (aka far better than the average 2+2er) can win at around 2bb/100. At a 9 person table the average player will win approximately 11% of the hands. But since our hero is a good he will be playing fewer hands and will probably win around 8% of them. The rake from the BBJ for those eight hands will be an extra $4 which of course comes out to 2bb/100. Yes that means he would be breaking even (not counting rakeback, bonuses, or BBJ equity of course). Now just think how bad it would be if the table isn't awesome or if the player is only decent...

[Gigi]

I still seem to be making a profit ever since BBJ was introduced because of the bad players, and more importantly table selection. Only the long term will tell and I closely monitor PT stats.

I'm playing 6 Max, which is far worst for BBJ tables, I know. I'll only play if the avg pot size is 16 big bets and usually its because there's two fish with 75% VIP. Once the fish lose their money I leave. When I see 20 big bet pots, I don't even wait to post the blind. Also with the new point system, you can limp a lot more if you know the pot size is going to be more than $10 bucks that hand, since you get back 25 cents, and 50 cents if if the pot size hits $20.

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]
I still seem to be making a profit ever since BBJ was introduced because of the bad players, and more importantly table selection. Only the long term will tell and I closely monitor PT stats.

I'm playing 6 Max, which is far worst for BBJ tables, I know. I'll only play if the avg pot size is 16 big bets and usually its because there's two fish with 75% VIP. Once the fish lose their money I leave. When I see 20 big bet pots, I don't even wait to post the blind. Also with the new point system, you can limp a lot more if you know the pot size is going to be more than $10 bucks that hand, since you get back 25 cents, and 50 cents if if the pot size hits $20.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean big blinds instead of bit bets.

You sure that the ARP points are worth that much? It seems that at that rate Absolute wouldn't be making any money...

[Gigi]

Yeah I meant big blinds, I can't edit my post for some reason. I'm talking about the bonus system which credits you with $5 at 20 points. $5/20 = 25 cents. Also there's no 50 cents at $20 pots I got that confused with the ARP points where you get more when pot is bigger.

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I meant big blinds, I can't edit my post for some reason. I'm talking about the bonus system which credits you with $5 at 20 points. $5/20 = 25 cents. Also there's no 50 cents at $20 pots I got that confused with the ARP points where you get more when pot is bigger.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can only get 1 bonus point per hand and it's $5 at 40 points.

[Gigi]

Right, only one point per hand, but it has been $5 at 20 points for a while now.

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]
Right, only one point per hand, but it has been $5 at 20 points for a while now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, you are right of course. It's late. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Watai]

[ QUOTE ]
Right, only one point per hand, but it has been $5 at 20 points for a while now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are these reload bonuses worth playing nowadays, i haven't been playing there for long time. Are tables still full of nits?

[Halstad]

[ QUOTE ]
Right, only one point per hand, but it has been $5 at 20 points for a while now.

[/ QUOTE ]

What did it used to be?

[bugman68]

Ive played over 4 millon hands of poker and never had a qualifying bad beat. Only seen two at my tables. I think 1.9millon-1 is a very good estimate on odds.

[p-brane]

[ QUOTE ]
Ive played over 4 millon hands of poker and never had a qualifying bad beat. Only seen two at my tables. I think 1.9millon-1 is a very good estimate on odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't you think it's more likely that they initiate a BBJ hand every so often? Look at the evidence:

There is an immediate fanfare of chips falling etc. when someone wins. See the video of Milkmoney winning:http://www.absolutepoker.com/badbeatpoker/
From a programming perspective it would make more sense for there to be a short delay while the BBJ was verified by a human before the onscreen celebration. On the other hand, if you were initiating it, you could produce a big hullabaloo to play out just as the last card hits.

Also, if the odds are 1 in 500,000 hands, then I should expect to be at a BBJ table about once a year. I played 2000 hands yesterday. My odds would be 1 in 250 of hitting yesterday alone.

This doesn't jive with mathematical intuition or my card sense. But it DOES seem to correspond to the frequency of winners. See the above web page listing EIGHT separate winners in October.

Also, they advertised the BBJ heavily in October, including Bluff and Cardplayer.

I agree with your estimate of 1 in 1.9M, and that would mean AP dealt more than 15 million hands in October, the month the scandal hit.

Based on this post: [ QUOTE ]
1. Empirical: In a news article, AP officials reported that nearly 1 million hands were played from from July 3 to July11=8 days which would suggest about 125,000 hands per day.

[/ QUOTE ] We should expect about 4 million hands a month. (And was this news article quoting BBJ hands, or all hands?)

And based on this post: [ QUOTE ]
Assuming 60 hands a hour (which also seems a little low based upon the lobby but I'd rather estimate low than high) that means 7440 hands an hour. Take 24 hours in a day and we get approximately 179k hands.

[/ QUOTE ] It would be about 5 million hands in a month. Both of those estimates are pre-scandal. So if at their peak, it was 4 to 5 million hands per month, how many would you expect during a boycott by many players?

So unless Absolute Poker TRIPLED their traffic during the cheating scandal, my money is on a <u>not-so-random</u> bad beat jackpot.

I suppose that would be fine. My only question would then be... Are the recipients of the jackpot money picked at random?

[Bobo Fett]

Wow. Many people feel the BBJ tables are almost unbeatable due to the extra rake, there was a cheating scandal at AP, you think the BBJ jackpot might not be random, and you played 2,000 hands on the BBJ tables there yesterday????

Wow.

Really, wow.

[p-brane]

Actually, I was making a point about the odds. I didn't play 2000 hands on the BBJ tables yesterday. And why do you berate me personally? Is it because I only have 6 posts. People like you are not very welcoming to new users. Your attitude seems pretty common at this site.

Wow yourself. Get a life.

[Bobo Fett]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I was making a point about the odds. I didn't play 2000 hands on the BBJ tables yesterday. And why do you berate me personally? Is it because I only have 6 posts. People like you are not very welcoming to new users. Your attitude seems pretty common at this site.

Wow yourself. Get a life.

[/ QUOTE ]
Um...OK. Pretty easy for me to draw that conclusion from this part of your post:

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if the odds are 1 in 500,000 hands, then I should expect to be at a BBJ table about once a year. I played 2000 hands yesterday. My odds would be 1 in 250 of hitting yesterday alone.

[/ QUOTE ]
Glad to hear I was mistaken. I would have thought you wouldn't be playing there given you are concerned about the legitimacy of the BBJ, so if that's the case then that's a good thing.

Berating you personally? I never said a word about you, and I'm sorry to hear that my post was taken that way. The only personal comment I see in either of our posts is where I'm told to get a life, but I won't take it personally. Quite happy with the life I have, thanks. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

As to you having 6 posts, I could really care less how many posts you have. I think you'll find the vast majority of my posts are quite helpful, regardless of whether the poster I'm responding to is new or not. Do I occasionally respond to questionable posts with a bit of typical 2+2 sarcasm? Guilty as charged.

[SpaceMonkey13]

And 2 jackpots hit yesterday...so now it's happening every 90,000 hands!!!

I don't think they make more money by triggering it at certain times. When the jackpot grows beyond 500k the place gets packed -- I'd guess 5 to 10 times as many tables as when the jackpot is around 100k. At least it was that way before the 'other' scandal.

[RiverFenix]

I emailed my VIP person asking if I could hit it.

Please note that the loser of the Bad Beat Jackpot is not selected and like all hands is completely random.

If there is anything else we can help you with, please let us know.

Sincerely,
AP person

Coverup