AQ pre

[tannenj]

the initial raiser is 44/25 over 60 hands. the shover is 19/16 over 100 hands. my image is about 40/35.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $15.45
BB: $54.50
UTG: $51.25
Hero (MP): $81.45
CO: $107.50
BTN: $45.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.00</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $54.50</font>, UTG folds

[PinkMartini]

Fold, you're not getting the odds to call his range, which I (presumably) think is QQ+ (maybe even JJ), AK

[Spurious]

fold
he tells you that he can beat an UTG raiser and an UTG-reraiser.

[jerryf1914]

how can you even consider calling this? how much money do you lose playing poker? i mean i'm a losing player and theres no way i call that stuff.

[Nick C]

I know your image is semi-maniacal, but are you really a favorite, or even just a slight dog, to his range here? It seems like an easy fold to me. Sure, it could be 55, which gives you an approximate break-even call, but won't it be AK often enough to make calling reckless here?

Plus, it may be AA-KK after all, despite your image.

[Worm75]

[ QUOTE ]
how can you even consider calling this? how much money do you lose playing poker? i mean i'm a losing player and theres no way i call that stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

Before you start flaming you might want to ask yourself why a winning 200nl player is trying to help you with your game

[tannenj]

clearly this is marginal at best, i'm just curious to see how close you guys think it is.

i'd advise considering the pot odds and keeping an open mind.

[ QUOTE ]
Fold, you're not getting the odds to call his range, which I (presumably) think is QQ+ (maybe even JJ), AK

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think there's any way his range is that tight.

[ QUOTE ]
fold
he tells you that he can beat an UTG raiser and an UTG-reraiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

indeed he does.

[ QUOTE ]
how can you even consider calling this? how much money do you lose playing poker? i mean i'm a losing player and theres no way i call that stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you don't even give calling consideration, maybe you should give some thought to why you're a losing player.

[jerryf1914]

[ QUOTE ]
clearly this is marginal at best, i'm just curious to see how close you guys think it is.

i'd advise considering the pot odds and keeping an open mind.

[ QUOTE ]
Fold, you're not getting the odds to call his range, which I (presumably) think is QQ+ (maybe even JJ), AK

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think there's any way his range is that tight.

[ QUOTE ]
fold
he tells you that he can beat an UTG raiser and an UTG-reraiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

indeed he does.

[ QUOTE ]
how can you even consider calling this? how much money do you lose playing poker? i mean i'm a losing player and theres no way i call that stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you don't even give calling consideration, maybe you should give some thought to why you're a losing player.

[/ QUOTE ]

aq is not a good hand. what is there to consider?

[Worm75]

How frequently are you 3-betting at this table Tannenj?? Would help to narrow down BB's range quite a bit....FWIW I really have a hard time seeing him do this with QQ+, at this level this is gen AK/AQ.

If you have been 3-betting UTG frequently, then I could see BB attempting a squeeze with something as low as 89s here.

[tannenj]

i'd been 3betting very often and playing crazy in general. BB has not played back at me yet.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
How frequently are you 3-betting at this table Tannenj?? Would help to narrow down BB's range quite a bit....FWIW I really have a hard time seeing him do this with QQ+, at this level this is gen AK/AQ.

If you have been 3-betting UTG frequently, then I could see BB attempting a squeeze with something as low as 89s here.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I'm going to say I seriously doubt it's a medium suited connector.

The main thing we have going for us is that it sort of looks like Villain doesn't really want to see a flop. But, working against that are the following things: (1) He may want to make sure that, if he's playing, he gets to see all 5 cards with his AK, (2) preflop 4-bets in the micros are usually very strong hands (although I'll admit there are reasons for us to have doubts in this case), and (3) it's possible he views Hero as a big preflop gambler and is actually hoping for a call.

[jerryf1914]

you're 60/40 at best against his range why would you want to blow a full BI on that instead of just waiting until you have a hand

[Worm75]

The fact that you have not been played back at yet by BB, would probably make this a fold for me. I think likely range is something like 88-JJ,AJs+,AQo+ and if he's creative, maybe a couple of SC's like 67/78 here, because he knows he wont be completely dominated by two overcard here if called.

According to Pokerstove, you are a 45/55 dog against this range, I don't think there is enough money in the pot to contemplate calling here, but I think the hand is a lot closer than most people think in this thread.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you have not been played back at yet by BB, would probably make this a fold for me. I think likely range is something like 88-JJ,AJs+,AQo+ and if he's creative, maybe a couple of SC's like 67/78 here, because he knows he wont be completely dominated by two overcard here if called.

According to Pokerstove, you are a 45/55 dog against this range, I don't think there is enough money in the pot to contemplate calling here, but I think the hand is a lot closer than most people think in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we're really a 45/55 dog, then we should call (although we're not going to get rich doing so). We are getting about 9:7.

Unless the Full Tilt 50 plays a lot differently than the Stars 25, though, I'm really not expecting to see AJs here. Or even AQ. I'm mostly thinking PPs and AK, and I'm not willing to rule out AA-QQ (especially not QQ) just because it's such a big overpush.

[Worm75]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How frequently are you 3-betting at this table Tannenj?? Would help to narrow down BB's range quite a bit....FWIW I really have a hard time seeing him do this with QQ+, at this level this is gen AK/AQ.

If you have been 3-betting UTG frequently, then I could see BB attempting a squeeze with something as low as 89s here.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I'm going to say I seriously doubt it's a medium suited connector.

The main thing we have going for us is that it sort of looks like Villain doesn't really want to see a flop. But, working against that are the following things: (1) He may want to make sure that, if he's playing, he gets to see all 5 cards with his AK, (2) preflop 4-bets in the micros are usually very strong hands (although I'll admit there are reasons for us to have doubts in this case), and (3) it's possible he views Hero as a big preflop gambler and is actually hoping for a call.

[/ QUOTE ]


All valid points, and the reasons you list are why I said that it was a fold for me as well. I agree that it's pretty unlikely that he has a medium sc here, at the micro's, since 4-bets are generally strong hands.....but tags do funny things when they see a spot for FPS, so while unlikely they serve to weight the range a little bit for when he does some oddball things here.

[tannenj]

since i keep adding to the information base, here's one more piece of information: i've 3bet the villain's open twice so far and he has folded both times.

[ QUOTE ]
you're 60/40 at best against his range why would you want to blow a full BI on that instead of just waiting until you have a hand

[/ QUOTE ]

sir, i must say that you are tilting me with your semantics. either calling is +ev against his range or it's not.

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you have not been played back at yet by BB, would probably make this a fold for me. I think likely range is something like 88-JJ,AJs+,AQo+ and if he's creative, maybe a couple of SC's like 67/78 here, because he knows he wont be completely dominated by two overcard here if called.

According to Pokerstove, you are a 45/55 dog against this range, I don't think there is enough money in the pot to contemplate calling here, but I think the hand is a lot closer than most people think in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

for what it's worth, i'm getting 1.29:1, so here's some math:

x/(1-x) = 1.29
x = 1.29 - 1.29x
2.29x = 1.29
x = 1.29/2.29
x = about .56

so i believe i need approximately 44% equity to break even on this call, someone please correct my math if it's wrong.

i'm getting what i need against the range you came up with:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.254% 44.10% 08.15% 46065342 8514131.00 { JJ-88, AJs+, 87s, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 47.746% 39.59% 08.15% 41356940 8514131.00 { AhQc }

additionally, i'm obviously calling if i know somehow that i'm a 45/55 dog.

[Worm75]

[ QUOTE ]
since i keep adding to the information base, here's one more piece of information: i've 3bet the villain's open twice so far and he has folded both times.

[ QUOTE ]
you're 60/40 at best against his range why would you want to blow a full BI on that instead of just waiting until you have a hand

[/ QUOTE ]

sir, i must say that you are tilting me with your semantics. either calling is +ev against his range or it's not.

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you have not been played back at yet by BB, would probably make this a fold for me. I think likely range is something like 88-JJ,AJs+,AQo+ and if he's creative, maybe a couple of SC's like 67/78 here, because he knows he wont be completely dominated by two overcard here if called.

According to Pokerstove, you are a 45/55 dog against this range, I don't think there is enough money in the pot to contemplate calling here, but I think the hand is a lot closer than most people think in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

for what it's worth, i'm getting 1.29:1, so here's some math:

x/(1-x) = 1.29
x = 1.29 - 1.29x
2.29x = 1.29
x = 1.29/2.29
x = about .56

so i believe i need approximately 44% equity to break even on this call, someone please correct my math if it's wrong.

i'm getting what i need against the range you came up with:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.254% 44.10% 08.15% 46065342 8514131.00 { JJ-88, AJs+, 87s, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 47.746% 39.59% 08.15% 41356940 8514131.00 { AhQc }

additionally, i'm obviously calling if i know somehow that i'm a 45/55 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]


I guess before spitting out numbers, I should do the other end of the math as well huh!!! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Just kinda eyeballed it here. Also FWIW I took out 1/2 the combinations of SC's, and you are still only 42.5/56.

And FWIW, I may be speaking from a lil' bit of a different perspective, since I will occasionally incorporate large over bets in situation like this.(I also dont run 19/16 or play NL50)

But if you know that UTG raising range is extremely wide, and another player has been a maniac at the table 3-betting all over the place, this can be a profitable spot to squeeze, provided you do it vs the right opponents.

[jerryf1914]

why do you want to play for stacks in a hand thats +.000001ev instead of just waiting for a hand thats +1ev?

and don't give me this +ev is +ev thats bs. there are so many opportunities to stack people theres just no point in risking it

[RunDownHouse]

Something from NLTAP has stuck with me: lots of players aren't thinking, "Man, this guy is crazy, I'm going to play back at him with a weaker holding the next time!" Instead, they're thinking, "Man this guy is crazy, I can't wait until I get AA/KK and bust him!"

I fold.

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
and don't give me this +ev is +ev thats bs. there are so many opportunities to stack people theres just no point in risking it

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, the point is to make money, so if that's your only consideration, then you call the .001EV plays. I mean, the point is obvious.

Whether or not higher variance is worth the very marginal profit is a factor that's different for everybody. Go play a few hundred K of limit to learn what its like to push tiny edges over and over again.

[jonyy6788]

ur [censored]

fold

[tannenj]

[ QUOTE ]
why do you want to play for stacks in a hand thats +.000001ev instead of just waiting for a hand thats +1ev?

and don't give me this +ev is +ev thats bs. there are so many opportunities to stack people theres just no point in risking it

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right. i'm willing to pass up on a little ev here and there. i'm scared.

seriously, wtf?

[Poker_0reo]

Fold your crushed.

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
Something from NLTAP has stuck with me: lots of players aren't thinking, "Man, this guy is crazy, I'm going to play back at him with a weaker holding the next time!" Instead, they're thinking, "Man this guy is crazy, I can't wait until I get AA/KK and bust him!"

I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don´t give anyone credit with any light rr pf untill I have seen some evidence. I see it so often, they wait till they have KK+ so they can "bust you".

[jerryf1914]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why do you want to play for stacks in a hand thats +.000001ev instead of just waiting for a hand thats +1ev?

and don't give me this +ev is +ev thats bs. there are so many opportunities to stack people theres just no point in risking it

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right. i'm willing to pass up on a little ev here and there. i'm scared.

seriously, wtf?

[/ QUOTE ]

its not like its hard to stack people why not just be patient you've invested almost nothing in this hand so far

[SMACK BOOTY]

Fold. To even consider calling this is FPS to the max, the only person you may outwit is yourself. Sometimes, a cigar is a cigar, and sometimes a big re-raise means a big hand. Let it go, keep moving.

[Grunch]

I dont think this is close. I think this is a clear fold.