+EV calling strong pf reraise with AK?

[ton1]

Played only few hands so no reads.


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $50.50
BB: $50.00
UTG: $98.05
Hero (CO): $55.65
BTN: $113.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, BTN calls $2.00, <font color="red">SB raises to $9.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero ?</font>

Based on my 20k hands experience at FTP NL50 I'd put SB on AK,JJ+. <font color="blue">Thoughts about SBs range?</font>

If the range above is somewhat correct, does this situation has positive value if:
-SB will cbet $15 no matter the board
-SB will fold to reraise if A or K appears on the flop
-SB will c/f turn if A or K appears on the flop
-Hero will play for stacks if A or K appears on the flop

What's the best line here?

[Jamougha]

If you put him on AK, JJ+ then it's an obvious fold, you have the worst hand in his range.

[Kasane]

In position I tend to call, oop I tend to fold or reraise depending on villain.

reraise size is a tad on the large size -- I'm willing to see a flop and go from there.

[Nick C]

Disclaimer: The math in this post is going to be really, really rough.

Hmm, well, in the immediate sense you're getting about 2:1. Let's say Button will fold behind you, and also that the assumptions you give about SB are all true.

Here's his range:

AA = 3
KK = 3
QQ = 6
JJ = 6
AK = 9

So, 12 times out of 27, you will have ~ 1/3 chance of outflopping Villain's QQ/JJ. When you do that, you'll generally win the $14 that's already in the pot plus Villain's $15 c-bet. So that's $29 you're winning ~1/3 of the time for a $7.50 investment versus QQ/JJ. You'll occasionally get stacked when the flop comes AJ4 and Villain holds JJ, it's true, but you are getting pretty good odds against this part of Villain's range overall.

1/9 of the time, you'll be up against KK, and about 1/6 of those times, you'll outflop Villain. We won't flop TPTK versus a set very often at all when up against KK, so there's that, but we're not getting a good return on our investment versus that hand.

Versus AA, which Villain will have 1/9 of the time, we'll flop a king about 1/6 of the time and will generally get stacked when this happens. Flopping an ace, while less likely, would be even worse, although the result will usually be the same.

Versus AK, which Villain will have 1/3 of the time, by far thet most likely outcome is that you and Villain both whiff on the flop, he c-bets, and you fold. The other possibility is that you both catch and, unless one of you catches a flush, you chop.

So . . . 1/3 of the time (against AK), we're giving away $6 or so on average by calling preflop.

4/9 of the time (versus QQ/JJ), we're winning about $5 on average so long as Villain doesn't flop a set.

I guess really I can stop there, but just for the sake of being complete . . .

We're going a small amount of money versus KK on average even before factoring in the unfortunate times that we flop the case king.

Versus AA, we're losing about $15 per hand on average.

Overall, we're coming out slightly behind on a call even before factoring in those disaster flops like AQ5 versus QQ. And those will happen occasionally.

So, no, I don't think we can call profitably versus the range you gave, given the assumptions you set up.

If Button will overcall behind us, then that changes things somewhat and probably helps us overall, but I still think the best play versus the AA-JJ, AK range is to fold in this spot. But if you expand SB's range as far as just AA-TT, AK, then the decision does become a lot closer.