AK, 5bet, once it gets this far I have to stick the rest in, right ?

Villain is a solid TAG 2+2. He has been 3betting me fairly light on the beggining of the session, after that normal.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($39)
UTG ($44.95)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($195.25)</font>
CO ($50.50)
<font color="#C00000">Button ($62.50)</font>
SB ($51.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO calls $2, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $7.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $25</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $62.5</font>,

Hero ??

[gumpzilla]

Well, because he's been 3betting you light, his range is going to be wide enough here that you'll be getting the right price to call. Eyeballing it, you probably need about 30% equity to call - I think QQ+, AK is a reasonable range and you'll definitely be doing well enough against that range. There's even a slight chance of JJ, which would be pretty great.

[monkeymaps]

meh for the price I get it in. How often is this QQ is the question I guess.

[castigar]

Easy fold.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you say that? I think this is a call even if you put him on QQ+ and ditch the AK, especially since there are as many QQs as KK+. Absent a history of light 3 betting from a player we've identified as strong, you could maybe make an argument that this is a fold if it's never QQ or AK, but I think that's a hard thing to establish. With the history, villain's range should probably be wider than KK+ here.

[castigar]

Against QQ, it's about 50:50. With AK, we split. KK beats us 70:30 and AA beats us 93:7. He has history for 3betting light, but this is a 5bet. A 5 bet is KK+.

[castigar]

If vilain is a good tag and wants to play his AK at all cost, he would have went AI on his 5bet to represent KK or AA. I'm almost sure he has KK+ here.

[Wada]

If he has been betting light and now comes out betting strong, wouldn't his range be extremely narrow rather than wider??

[Kasane]

You're stuck -- it sucks, but yeah, you have to call once it gets to this point.

Against KK, AA, and just half of the AK/QQ hands, I think this stoves out profitably. Given history, there's some of that in there.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
If vilain is a good tag and wants to play his AK at all cost, he would have went AI on his 5bet to represent KK or AA. I'm almost sure he has KK+ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

He did go all in on the 5bet.

[ QUOTE ]
If he has been betting light and now comes out betting strong, wouldn't his range be extremely narrow rather than wider??

[/ QUOTE ]

If you've been 3betting a lot of hands, then it's fair to expect that observant opponents are likely to 4bet you weaker. Then hands like QQ will likely perform better against that 4bet range, because they are 4betting you based on what they perceive as a wide range. So you would loosen up a little bit.

[traz]

This is KK+ like always

[AZplaya]

meh I think with the pot odds and how you stack up against his range, this is a call. I would actually be more inclined to fold against a typical small stakes donk than a 2p2er who has been playing back at me a bit. The fact that your both 2p2 adds to the chance that this is FPS with something your ahead of.

[traz]

Guys, the question isn't "has villain been 3betting light"...it's "have you been 4betting light, and does villain know this?"

If you haven't done anything out of line, there is no way he pushes over top of you without anything except KK+

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
Guys, the question isn't "has villain been 3betting light"...it's "have you been 4betting light, and does villain know this?"

[/ QUOTE ]

If I've been 3 betting light against a guy I know is 2+2 and he 4bets me, I'm definitely getting it in with QQ in that spot, just because it's so much better than most of what's in my range and I expect him to know that. As somebody else just said, the fact that villain is another 2+2er and probably pretty observant is key to the whole line of reasoning.

[traz]

Unless Hero has 4bet light before, this will never be QQ. Maybe on like the 3rd 4bet he would 5bet with QQ, but not on the first one.

[Wada]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If vilain is a good tag and wants to play his AK at all cost, he would have went AI on his 5bet to represent KK or AA. I'm almost sure he has KK+ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

He did go all in on the 5bet.

[ QUOTE ]
If he has been betting light and now comes out betting strong, wouldn't his range be extremely narrow rather than wider??

[/ QUOTE ]

If you've been 3betting a lot of hands, then it's fair to expect that observant opponents are likely to 4bet you weaker. Then hands like QQ will likely perform better against that 4bet range, because they are 4betting you based on what they perceive as a wide range. So you would loosen up a little bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero said he perceives Villain to be 3betting lightly, but then returns to "normal." Hero now decides he has to 4bet with a wider range because of Villains light 3 betting in addition to make up for being OOP?? If villain thinks that Hero is capable of making a play like this, I can't see villain wanting to open his range even wider and push. This looks like the classic shoving match with KK vs AA, and clearly AK is behind.

"Villain did go all in with a 5 bet" so if he is representing his AK as AA or KK, he has AK QQ KK or AA. AK is a chop and how often does that happen, QQ your still behind (but can still win with your 6 outer and might as well call the all in), and way behind on AA and KK.

Looks like KK+ to me as well.

[Wada]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless Hero has 4bet light before

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the key right here.

[prodonkey]

god fold

[ssdex]

stick it in, your so potstuck i dont care if its KK+, your still potstuck

[Daniel LeClaire]

Unless you have a strong read that villain only does this with AA/KK you have to call. And since it's against a good, thinking opponent, to me, it makes it even more so of a call because they are more likely to be making a move/shoving lighter.

[tarheeljks]

[ QUOTE ]
stick it in, your so potstuck i dont care if its KK+, your still potstuck

[/ QUOTE ]

i actually don't think we are. we are getting ~1:3.4, so ~29% equity. no stove on this comp, but AK vs KK+ is ~18% right?

[ssdex]

you can't only include KK in his range, its QQ every once in awhile, KK often, aa sometimes and you will see AK here a ton too.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
stick it in, your so potstuck i dont care if its KK+, your still potstuck

[/ QUOTE ]

i actually don't think we are. we are getting ~1:3.4, so ~29% equity. no stove on this comp, but AK vs KK+ is ~18% right?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is correct: slightly more than 18%. ALso hero is getting 2.386 to 1. 89.5 in the pot and needs to call 37.5. 89.5 divided by 37.5 = 2.386 So hero needs about 29.5% equity. If hero were getting 3.4 to 1 he'd only need 22.75% equity.


I want to point out that if the guy flipped over KK you would have an easy call.

I think you need to call this. Let's see:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,547,648 games 0.047 secs 437,184,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.142% 68.77% 00.38% 14129791 77250.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KcKd, KcKh, KdKh, QQ }
Hand 1: 30.858% 30.48% 00.38% 6263357 77250.00 { AdKs }



It's a call here. The assumption is that AA and KK aren't the only two hands he's doing this with.

[derosnec]

is this serious? easiest call ever. pot size and poker stove.

[tarheeljks]

i agree that if he ever has less than KK we should call(same if he flipped KK). i was just saying that if we knew he had KK+ 100% of the time we should fold.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
stick it in, your so potstuck i dont care if its KK+, your still potstuck

[/ QUOTE ]

i actually don't think we are. we are getting ~1:3.4, so ~29% equity. no stove on this comp, but AK vs KK+ is ~18% right?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is correct: slightly more than 18%. ALso hero is getting 2.386 to 1. 89.5 in the pot and needs to call 37.5. 89.5 divided by 37.5 = 2.386 So hero needs about 29.5% equity. If hero were getting 3.4 to 1 he'd only need 22.75% equity.


I want to point out that if the guy flipped over KK you would have an easy call.

I think you need to call this. Let's see:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,547,648 games 0.047 secs 437,184,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.142% 68.77% 00.38% 14129791 77250.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KcKd, KcKh, KdKh, QQ }
Hand 1: 30.858% 30.48% 00.38% 6263357 77250.00 { AdKs }



It's a call here. The assumption is that AA and KK aren't the only two hands he's doing this with.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for fixing that typo, not sure where i got 3.4 from

[Jamougha]

[ QUOTE ]
Guys, the question isn't "has villain been 3betting light"...it's "have you been 4betting light, and does villain know this?"

If you haven't done anything out of line, there is no way he pushes over top of you without anything except KK+

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't true at all. If he's been 3-betting light then he should expect you to play back and be ready to felt lighter.

Also do you expect him to fold AK/QQ 100% of the time? Once you 4-bet he's in push or fold mode.

[ama0330]

If you need to ask whether or not to get it in here, don't 4 bet.

Thanks for all the replies. I snapped called thinking that I was pretty much pot commited, but thinking better about the hand, I think I could have gotten away from this. I don`t think villain would have 5bet AK here. I think his likely holdings were QQ+. I have done some steeling from CO and Button and he was 3betting fairly light IMO, so I think 4betting AK was correct.

[ama0330]

results?

[Jamougha]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I could have gotten away from this. I don`t think villain would have 5bet AK here. I think his likely holdings were QQ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have odds vs QQ+ lol

[ QUOTE ]
results?

[/ QUOTE ]

villain showed AA /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I could have gotten away from this. I don`t think villain would have 5bet AK here. I think his likely holdings were QQ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have odds vs QQ+ lol

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean only QQ,KK,AA not AK.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
results?

[/ QUOTE ]

villain showed AA /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

obv

[jonyy6788]

dont fkin 4 bet AK if it's not for value

[Kasane]

Villains range here should be a bit more than KK and AA -- not much, but a bit if he's playing well and 3-betting light.

In which case a call is mandatory.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I could have gotten away from this. I don`t think villain would have 5bet AK here. I think his likely holdings were QQ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have odds vs QQ+ lol

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean only QQ,KK,AA not AK.

[/ QUOTE ]


If his range is QQ,KK,AA then you should call. You have odds against it.

[Jamougha]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I could have gotten away from this. I don`t think villain would have 5bet AK here. I think his likely holdings were QQ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have odds vs QQ+ lol

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean only QQ,KK,AA not AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I KNOW. YOU HAVE ODDS AGAINST QQ+.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
dont fkin 4 bet AK if it's not for value

[/ QUOTE ]

qft, but i didnt want to say anything and be accused of nittiness... i dont 4bet this here

I think if somebody starts 3betting more than usual, not 4betting AK once in a while is a mistake. Its not like I always 4bet AK.

What hands do you 4bet, only KK+ ?

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if somebody starts 3betting more than usual, not 4betting AK once in a while is a mistake. Its not like I always 4bet AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

And yet you assume that when they 5bet it's going to be KK+? If that's true, 4betting AK is terrible here, because you've decided it sucks against the range that gives you action. If he's 3 betting light, he'll fold a lot of his crappy hands to your 4bet, and a lot of those hands would be c-betting at flops you hit, too. If you're thinking that you're going to play back at him purely because his 3bet range is too wide and you expect him to fold a ton, you should do it with crappier hands, not hands like AK that have a fair amount of value themselves. (EDIT: Obviously 4betting with your great hands is fine, too. I think the usual maxim of betting your best and worst hands makes sense here.)

[ama0330]

exactly, you can see that AK may aswell be 72o when played this way

good point