Major leaks in my game or simply variance? A few hands.. [Archive]

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castigar

08-01-2007, 10:36 PM

I think my game has somewhat "improved" lately but my winrate has greatly decreased (this last week (10k last hands) it became a lossrate..).

I know it could be variance but could it be that I'm now too easily bluffable? Given a particular line from vilain, I know when I'm supposed to be beat and I fold my hand maybe too fast?

Please review these few hands, they were some of my big losses today. Thanks a bunch! I'll stay around to answer questions =o

*** Hand 1 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $24.75
BB: $10.70
Hero (UTG): $27.55
MP: $26.70
CO: $52.95
BTN: $36.85

Reads: Vilain's stats were 27.85/16.5/2.2. Seemed like a pretty standard player from the first hands I saw from him.

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
Hero raises to $1.10, MP calls $1.10, 4 folds

Flop: ($2.55) T/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.25, MP calls $2.25

Turn: ($7.05) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP bets $3.75, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $3.75 returned to MP

Pot Size: $7.05 ($0.35 Rake)

*** Hand 2 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $25.60
BB: $22.55
Hero (UTG): $24.65
MP: $29.90
CO: $51.30
BTN: $26.70

Reads: Vilain was quite bad, 40/10/3. I had to call the river..right?

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
Hero raises to $1.10, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.10, SB calls $1.00, BB folds

Flop: ($3.55) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50, SB folds

Turn: ($8.55) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
Hero bets $5.50, BTN calls $5.50

River: ($19.55) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.25, Hero calls $6.25

Pot Size: $32.05 ($1.60 Rake)

*** Hand 3 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $26.50
Hero (BB): $28.10
UTG: $81.05
CO: $87.05
BTN: $30.15

Reads: Vilain is 25/15,5/3.7, a TAG. That's why I folded. I said to myself> Why would a TAG go AI on such a board without a minimum of a big overpair. At the time I thought I was beat, but now that I rewatched the hand, I'm quite sure I was ahead or close to it. What do you guys think?

Here's what I got from pokerstove
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.118% 49.99% 01.13% 47013 1063.50 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 48.882% 47.75% 01.13% 44910 1063.50 { 66+, 44, A2s+ }

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO raises to $1.00, BTN calls $1.00, SB calls $0.90, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($4) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.25, 2 folds, SB raises all-in to $25.50, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $22.25 returned to SB

Pot Size: $10.50 ($0.50 Rake)

*** Hand 4 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

Hero (SB): $33.65
BB: $169.65
UTG: $29.70
CO: $23.95
BTN: $54.55

Reads: Here again, vilain is a tag 20/15.5/3

We've battled it up a few times before and I've shown some big hands and he did too.

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 Players)
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.85, Hero calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($1.95) K/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.45, Hero raises to $5.00, BTN raises all-in to $53.70, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $48.70 returned to BTN

Pot Size: $11.95 ($0.55 Rake)

*** Hand 5 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $19.95
BB: $27.20
UTG: $54.45
CO: $27.50
Hero (BTN): $25.25

Reads: Vilain is 19/13.5/4.6.

Here's what I got from PT.. Good call of mine?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.685% 34.79% 09.90% 10332 2939.50 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 55.315% 45.42% 09.90% 13489 2939.50 { QQ+, 22, A9s+, KQs, AKo, KcQd }

Preflop: Hero is dealt K/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 Players)
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, SB calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($1.95) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
SB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $6.00, SB raises all-in to $19.10, Hero calls $13.10

Turn: ($40.15) J/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players - 1 All-In)

River: ($40.15) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $40.15 ($2 Rake)

*** Hand 6 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

Hero (SB): $25.00
BB: $39.60
UTG: $69.60
MP: $46.00
CO: $36.50
BTN: $20.55

Reads: Vilain is 70/25/5. Am I supposed to keep calling PSB with a pair of 6?

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, BB folds, MP calls $1.50

Flop: ($3.75) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.50, MP calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP bets $8.75, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $8.75 returned to MP

Pot Size: $8.75 ($0.40 Rake)

*** Hand 7 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $44.15
BB: $40.15
UTG: $22.30
MP: $53.65
CO: $7.35
Hero (BTN): $29.25

Reads: Vilain is 24/16/2. Nothing else on him.

Preflop: Hero is dealt K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 Players)
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, SB folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($6.80) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
BB bets $4.75, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $4.75 returned to BB

Pot Size: $6.80 ($0.30 Rake)

castigar

08-01-2007, 11:41 PM

I know there are a lot of hands but I'll take opinions on any of them..

Gorvacofin

08-01-2007, 11:42 PM

I think hand 2 is a fold. I throw up on the river - it completes a lot of the draws he might have been playing, plus he could have been slowplaying an 8 all along.

castigar

08-01-2007, 11:46 PM

You think he could be calling my bets all the way with a gutshot? You're right for the FD though..But you don't think a donk like this could bluff this river 20% of the time? These are the odds he's giving me.

blah-blah-blah

08-02-2007, 12:02 AM

hand 1: I might call the turn since we're open ended but folding is not bad.

hand 2: please fold the river. every draw got there.

hand 3: this one could be close but if villian is a competent TAG then its a fold. he's never shoving a smaller overpair.

hand 4: you coulda had the best hand but you had to fold. the c/r was not a good idea i c/c here and take it from there.

hand 5: you forgot hands like JTs and T9 suited. also u having Kh cuts down on his semi bluffing hands so I really thik this is 22/KQ a lot so I fold.

hand 6: i would bet the turn. he's really loose so you're probably ahead but I don't think you can give up the lead OOP here.

hand 7: standard.

castigar

08-02-2007, 12:17 AM

Hand 5, I added TJs and T9s the his range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.909% 37.56% 10.35% 28942793 7972795.50 { QQ+, 22, A9s+, KQs, JhTh, Th9h, AKo, KcQd }
Hand 1: 52.091% 41.74% 10.35% 32165296 7972795.50 { AdKh }

I'm still ahead. So I guess it still was a good call.

castigar

08-02-2007, 12:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]

hand 4: you coulda had the best hand but you had to fold. the c/r was not a good idea i c/c here and take it from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wasn't it a good idea? A lot of people like to c/r flop with top pair.. If he stays, then you know he's strong.

justhetip

08-02-2007, 12:28 AM

I think you are a good player and it is mostly variance. All hands are played well barring the AK one, where you should have folded to his all in

castigar

08-02-2007, 12:39 AM

Thanks, I'm kinda relieved to read that.

If I should have folded the AK one, could you please tell me what's wrong with this?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.685% 34.79% 09.90% 10332 2939.50 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 55.315% 45.42% 09.90% 13489 2939.50 { QQ+, 22, A9s+, KQs, AKo, KcQd }

poincaraux

08-02-2007, 01:03 AM

Hand 3 I might include combo draws as well.

castigar

08-02-2007, 01:06 AM

Should I fold Hand 3 or not?

Check_The_Nuts

08-02-2007, 01:12 AM

hand 4 and hand 2 show a fundamental problem with ur game (I think hand 2 is one where the river is terrible). Hand 2 if you think about pairs that you beat there are exactly two if I remember right. No way is a call profitable there unless he's calling a ridiculous amount of the time. You didn't think of his range in that hand.

Hand 4 if you think about how he's forced to play the hands you beat and the hands he beats you with you'll realize why this hand is bad.

justhetip

08-02-2007, 01:14 AM

In hand 3 against a TAG you should fold. His combo draws are probably in good shape against your hand and some part of his range will have you crushed.

You on the other hand are not really crushing any of his range, even 44 and 55 have decent equity against you.

On to the AK hand, I think your right might be spot on. However he might be even tighter than that range suggests. Also, as previously noted having the Kh eliminates hands like KQs from his range (although you have it in poker stove.. is that a mistake?)

Anyway, just my thoughts. You are probably losing money elsewhere, but continuing playing big hands correctly should make money in the long run.

Also as a principle, don't be afraid to give up momentum. There are a couple of hands where firing the turn might make you tougher to play against, especially if you are always folding after checking the turn to a medium sized bet.

justhetip

08-02-2007, 01:15 AM

I don't agree with the 'hands you beat vs hands that beat you argument' for hand 4. I like how you played it.

castigar

08-02-2007, 01:20 AM

Hand 4, I think he calls with KT+ here.

>> Hand 4 if you think about how he's forced to play the hands you beat and the hands he beats you with you'll realize why this hand is bad.

Well I don't =(

blah-blah-blah

08-02-2007, 01:20 AM

thats probably a decent range but IMO i don't think this villian b3bai his draws as much as 22/KQ and the draws that he is b3bai are stronger than just nut flush draw.

Check_The_Nuts

08-02-2007, 01:21 AM

just - If he holds KJ/KT its difficult to call that checkraise. If he does he's not gunna put another penny in the pot unless he improves or decides to bluff. So I really like check/calling better than check/raising. Its also too easy for him to shove over top with some draw and ur "forced" to fold.

But I'm almost never in this spot because I rr preflop fwiw.

blah-blah-blah

08-02-2007, 01:35 AM

c/r in hand 4 is one of those "I'm seeing where I'm at" raises which can be good sometimes but i don't think its good here unless you have more reads. normally i would c/c but i think leading is ok too. i just don't like c/r here.

castigar

08-02-2007, 02:02 AM

In hand2, is the river the only problem?

blah-blah-blah

08-02-2007, 02:07 AM

hand 2 is fine just fold river when that river hits

justhetip

08-02-2007, 03:57 AM

Sorry to be a stickler but how is check calling better than check raising?

Maybe you will argue that he will put more money in with hands that we beat, such as KJ and KT. But perhaps he will also check behind hands that we beat on the turn, such as flush draws, or get us to make incorrect folds.

I like the way he played the hand not only from and 'I'm seeing where I'm at' as well as taking initiative in the hand to stop his cbetting.

Better alternative to c/calling in my mind is leading out on the flop.

Also I'm not sure if I reraise preflop with KQ that often, but I like it if the game is playing pretty tight.

globetrotter

08-02-2007, 04:51 AM

It seems to me that you are putting yourself into a lot of tough spots by c/raising and building pots w/ mediocre hands that you really should be trying to play smaller pots with. I understand that you are trying to find out where you stand , but your bets aren't always doing that anyway.

Hand 1 - I like the fold. You're probably behind and it will be hard to extract even if you do catch up.

Hand 2 - This one is tough. I like the flop and turn, but the river is probably a fold. He gives you pretty good pot odds, but the river card hit so many possible hands that it comes down to how likely he is to make a bluff there.

Hand 3 - Played fine i think.

Hand 4 - I really don't like the c/r here and the reason is that you have a mediocre hand and now you're building a big pot. If he calls or raises you're in trouble, and you're out of position. Given the way your opponents seem to be playing i much prefer a c/c or betting out the flop. Maybe you give a free card to a draw... That's ok w/ me. You are much more likely up against a better hand or a draw than a hand that can call your bet.

Hand 5 - I think this is a fold. You are raising here to find out where you're at. I would say most likely he either has you or he's on a big draw. Unless he has been doing this kind of thing a lot I let it go.

Hand 6 - I would just call w/ this hand pf. You're out of position here. Just be happy to see a cheap flop w/ a good drawing hand instead of trying to run these guys over. Instead of just calling w/ your pair after the flop, try a c/r here. He's aggressive enough that you can count on him to bet. You need to find out where you are fast in this hand and betting out isn't doing that. The difference w/ this and the KQ hand is that if he calls or plays back w/ this one, it's much easier for you to get out.

Hand 7 - Your play is fine here. But I'd like to know what people think about limping here.

You ssem like a good player. I hope my diff opinions help.
I'd love to get some feedback on my thoughts,.

PJo336

08-02-2007, 05:01 AM

I think most are standard here, but I dont like the river on hand 2 just because of what it hit + it seems like a value bet. Also hand 4 you should never build a pot like that with a vunerable hand OOP.

Besides that, ive played with you a little and you are solid, my guess would be variance, with a possible few small leaks mentioned throughout here that can be applied

RichAM

08-02-2007, 05:30 AM

If you want to find leaks ... Pokey should help

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=0#Post4946669 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=4946669&an=0&page=0#Post 4946669)