KQ Q vs small turn raise

[bluffbetter]

Villain is 50/36.4/2.6 over 22 hands

Should I fold to the turn raise, and if not I should have folded the river I think.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($33.90)
SB ($63.25)
Hero ($50.50)
UTG ($79.60)
MP ($46.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $1.5</font>, SB calls $1.25, Hero calls $1.

Flop: ($4.50) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, Button calls $3.50, SB folds.

Turn: ($11.50) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $7.5</font>, Hero calls $4.

River: ($26.50) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $38</font>, Button calls $11.40 (All-In).

Final Pot: $69.30

[Nick C]

The turn ambush raise is an unwelcome development that represents 9x, an overpair, or a flopped monster. There's some chance Villain just has QJ or JJ or 44 even a hand like JdTd, though.

The river card doesn't change much, except that you now beat AQ and lose to JT (and an improbable turned flush draw), so checkraising Villain all-in is probably a bit reckless. I would take the showdown for $10.

[JackAll]

-- Pre-flop --

With a pfr of 36.4%, his button raising range is MASSIVE - maybe 45%. This includes:

- all pairs (you are even with 22-JJ and when they miss their set, even if we miss a K/Q, they will fold - profit), and there are half the combinations of QQ and KK now that we hold one of each.
- any 2 broadways (you are ahead of TJ/TQ/TK/JQ/JK)
- any suited connectors (you are ahead of ALL OF THESE)
- any suited 1-gappers (you are ahead of ALL OF THESE)
- any suited 2-gappers (you are ahead of ALL OF THESE)
- any suited Ace (you are marginally behind these and with no A on the flop, even when we don't hit, we win)
- any K (you are ahead of ALL OF THESE)
- any suited Q (you are ahead of ALL OF THESE)
- offsuit connectors and 1-gappers (you are ahead of ALL OF THESE)
- some other random trash

Are you getting the picture? We are ahead of most of his range. Raise for value, and to take it down now, or with a c-bet almost all the time when we miss anyway. We are ahead of him here over 90% of the time. Re-raise for value same as with AK. You lost a LOT of value here.

-- Flop --

c/c flop 100% of the time. You miss out on a c-bet as well as have no draws to get money from. You simply push out worse hands and give more money to better hands. You lost value here.

-- Turn --

Your turn bet is just disgusting. Bet $8 and fold to a raise. When you bet small and he raises, you have no information as to whether he has a strong hand getting money in, or if he sees you as as weak and trying to push you out. If you bet $8, then he is less likely to bluff raise because of the size of it and you can safely fold. The flop might not be *so* bad (tho very suboptimal), but the turn bet size really [censored] up this hand.

-- River --

After flop and turn action, I don't think he has AK here ever. We don't beat any 2-pairs at all. The only draw that existed just made it for a str8. I would bet/fold the river here. Tell me one hand we beat that he will raise a river bet with? If none, then bet/fold river. Hang on, just noticed stacks. I would check to let him bluff here like you did. I probably would just put him in also but I don't know how much value there is in it.

[monkover]

call the river, not much value in raising imo.

[bluffbetter]

I agree with this, good post. Just 1 thing you didn't mention is SBs call of buttons raise preflop, should I still 3-bet?

[Nick C]

Regarding the flop, I think checking is a good idea if Villain had been c-betting regularly so far during his short stay at the table. (We have seen him raise ~8 times preflop, so by now there should be some information available regarding his c-bet tendencies.)

I probably checkraise instead of check-calling, though. There's enough broadway straight potential here that I'm not going to call the flop drawless. But if I check-called, I would do that with the plan of leading the turn.

SB's action, of course, could end up influencing what I decided to do.

I didn't notice how small your turn bet was relative to the pot size, but I agree that you should bet more. I'm going to say, though, that versus someone who's looking LAG so far and who is a semi-short-stack, folding to a raise might be the best play, but I'm not going to call it "safe."

[monkover]

jackall: i agree w/ almost everything in your post only that villain prob is not positionally aware so his pfr range is a bit tighter than you suggested.

[JackAll]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with this, good post. Just 1 thing you didn't mention is SBs call of buttons raise preflop, should I still 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hell yes. Him calling is fairly weak and he will fold there with most of his range, or on the flop to the c-bet more than enough to be profitable.

I hope you also take info from the flop and turn advice here too. With better pf action, we would not be in this situation, but against a 10% pfr-er this situation would still occur post flop, which is why flop and turn are important to understand also.


[ QUOTE ]
jackall: i agree w/ almost everything in your post only that villain prob is not positionally aware so his pfr range is a bit tighter than you suggested.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, fair enough. We are still WAY WAY ahead of his range which makes a raise the best play.

[nukewell]

Post deleted by nukewell

[nukewell]

agains an open raise from a loose player OOP i would 3 bet this most of the time and follow up with a c/bet on most flops. playing OOP sucks

[ QUOTE ]

-- Flop --

c/c flop 100% of the time. You miss out on a c-bet as well as have no draws to get money from. You simply push out worse hands and give more money to better hands. You lost value here.

-- Turn --

Your turn bet is just disgusting. Bet $8 and fold to a raise. When you bet small and he raises, you have no information as to whether he has a strong hand getting money in, or if he sees you as as weak and trying to push you out. If you bet $8, then he is less likely to bluff raise because of the size of it and you can safely fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

as you have played it i agree with this

depends on his c/bet tendancies but i also like a c/r on the flop

you either take it down there or get a decent idea of how strong villian is

again the turn bet is pointless, u should think why you are doing it: for value, to induce a push or information ect. betting so small relatived to the pot really achieves little unless he flds

[hunt1897]

I think it is very important to know SB's stats. When button raises and SB calls, easy fold pre-flop.

As played, call river.


IMO.

[JackAll]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

-- Flop --

c/c flop 100% of the time. You miss out on a c-bet as well as have no draws to get money from. You simply push out worse hands and give more money to better hands. You lost value here.

-- Turn --

Your turn bet is just disgusting. Bet $8 and fold to a raise. When you bet small and he raises, you have no information as to whether he has a strong hand getting money in, or if he sees you as as weak and trying to push you out. If you bet $8, then he is less likely to bluff raise because of the size of it and you can safely fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

as you have played it i agree with this

depends on his c/bet tendancies but i also like a c/r on the flop

you either take it down there or get a decent idea of how strong villian is

again the turn bet is pointless, u should think why you are doing it: for value, to induce a push or information ect. betting so small relatived to the pot really achieves little unless he flds

[/ QUOTE ]

This is awful advice.

Either he has a better hand, or he doesn't:
- If he has a better hand, we just gave him more noney.
- If he didn't, he folds now and we don't get any more bluff money from him.

Raising for information planning to fold is bad very close to 100% of the time. There are only a minute percent of the time that this is good and is so rare that people in micros definitely don't ever need to know them. Also, this is definitely not one of them. c/r'ing will just build a huge pot with a hand that is not a monster and no draws of becoming one - and we are out of position with this huge pot on the turn to boot.