Typical situation of overpair versus flop raise

[cooker3]

Whats the best line here for this hand and in general in these situations?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $39.05
BB: $294.25
hero (UTG): $50.00
CO: $52.05
BTN: $49.25

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 19/8/3.6 over 183 hands.
This about my 20th hand in session, stolen 1 or 2 pots, nothing major to speak of.</font>

Preflop: hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/spade.gif Jhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (5 Players)
<font color="red">hero raises to $2.00</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2.00, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25) 6http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif 7http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">hero bets $5.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $15.00</font>, BB folds

Pot Size: $26.25

[bluffbetter]

I think this is probably a set alot of the time against a player with these stats, although he is in position so there is a chance it's a bluff or a lower overpair than JJ. It's unlikely he has AA/KK because he should have reraised preflop and also QQ is less likely for the same reason.

I don't think this is a bluff very often and I'm not sure how often this is something like 99, I'm interested to see what other people think about that.

[Upgrade_U]

i am letting it go there because villain has somewhat reasonable stats so I doubt he would bluff there into 2 players, could be doing that with a draw as well but not as often considering his small vpip%

[mvdgaag]

Don't post the potsize... It shows the results.

Could be 54s, 98s, 67s, AcQc, 44-TT, QQ... You are just ahead of this range. A lot of these hands could have just called, so I think you are behind a lot of the time.

I put him on a semibluff or a hand that beats me... We might be lucky (or unlucky, because we might fold the best hand) and face 88-TT...

I call and check the turn.

If he checks behind on a blank I put him on a draw (people seldom raise the flop on a draw and not take the free card on the turn). You can be quite sure you had the best hand on a safe river.

If he bets small I might interpret it as a blocking bet and come to the same conclusion.

If he bets big I put him on a hand that beats me and I fold.

[mvdgaag]

I'll be making a note if this was a semibluff... Some players almost never semibluff... In that case this is a fold.

[hunt1897]

Easy fold against this type of Villian as played.

[mvdgaag]

I'm reraising a lot of low flops that I got a piece of against people with a high PFR% and cbet%, because they'll have to fold overs and sometimes fold the best hand (in this case hero)...
If hero cbets often and also raises a lot of broadway hands, medium pairs (sometimes SC's) he should call this against an observant opponent that is capable of semibluffing his draws in this spot.

[corsakh]

Coordinated board, button betting into players. Fold.

[mvdgaag]

[ QUOTE ]
Coordinated board, button betting into players. Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put him on?

[corsakh]

Sorry, I dont understand the question. You need the list of all possible hands that are ahead of JJ on this board?

[mvdgaag]

No, I can figure that out myself /images/graemlins/laugh.gif.

I'm just wondering what you (being pooh-bah) think he is most likely to have.
Because I feel this could very well be a semibluff and therefore call this most of the time and continue if I feel he missed his draw.
If this is a leak, I trust your opinion, but I'd like to better understand so I thought I'd ask.

[corsakh]

Most often two pair or a pair and a draw. Best case scenario, AcTc type of hand and even then we are only 55 to 45. KcQc is already ahead of us. Sometimes, its TT or 99 but its really not worth finding out /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Sometimes, if you had a bigger pocket and were in position, calling flop and shoving a safe turn could be ok, but its still a gamble.

[shyturtle27]

You are faced with a committment decision here. If you get all in right now do you think you'd be ahead? By how much? I don't think you would be and if you are then it would be by less that 60-40. Easy fold for me.

[mvdgaag]

Thanks!

[XxGeneralxX]

I think its about a 50/50. There is a very high propability he is semibluffing. With only 20 hands on him you have no solid reads. I would lean towards folding but.....