50NL - Hero flopped trips, facing turn C/Minraise

[Bramsterdam]

50NL, 5handed, $55 effective stacks. Readless.

Hero is on the button and is dealt Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Pre-flop:
UTG raises to $1,25. MP folds. Hero calls $1,75. 2 Folds.

flop: ($4.25) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG bets $2,25. Hero raises to $9. UTG calls $9.

Turn: ($22.25) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG checks. Hero bets $15. UTG raises to $30. Hero...

[Rednas]

I think he either has a flush or, more likely, KQ/KK.
Fold imo.

[MickChecker]

Tough spot. Push or fold, I think. I would tend to fold here, we don't beat a lot of hands here except a bluff. He might have KQ of course, if you haven't any reads it's pretty safe to assume his UTG-PFR-range is pretty tight.
You didn't disguise your Queen and he should have no reason to believe you don't have one. Nevertheless he c/r you. I fold.

[Magaca]

Baluga theorem mate. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Bramsterdam]

[ QUOTE ]
Baluga theorem mate. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]Baluga doesn't apply here right (I c/r flop, board is drawy)? And I don't have a single pair, but trips

[murmeltier21]

you can b/f this turn pretty safely. there are not many hands that you beat. i would put villain on KK/KQ or a FD when he calls that flop raise. If he had AA he woulda 3bet or folded the flop and he would definately NOT minraise AA on that board. so just fold =)

[danny8]

fold pf, QJo plays terribly vs an UTGs opening range. i think calling here readless is a leak. as played i fold, i cant imagine hes doing this with anything you beat.

[shoxbb6]

Wtf, you're getting nearly 5:1 immediate odds on your call, even if you can read his soul for a flush, you still need to call.

[Bramsterdam]

[ QUOTE ]
Wtf, you're getting nearly 5:1 immediate odds on your call, even if you can read his soul for a flush, you still need to call.

[/ QUOTE ]If I call the turn, I get a bazillion:1 odds on the river, leaving me pot committed.

Is there something wrong with my betsizing?

[Mike Kelley]

[ QUOTE ]
Baluga theorem mate. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm new but I don't believe the baluga theorem... I have never seen any statistics to back up it's premise. I would love to see some statistics to prove it. I've seen AQ, AJ, AT, and Ax even more and tons of other complete air hands RR/AI on that example Baluga gives. I wonder if there is a way to find hands similar to this in Pokertracker....

Last night a guy RR/AI on the turn against my aces with A7 on a 7 high flop board. Maybe I'm just remembering the times it won but it seems like the times you lose are much more painful and memorable and if this were true I'd realize it.