(25NL) Correct turn shoves? (Deepish stacks)

[vanoff]

Hand #1:
Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $24.47
Hero (BB): $70.44
UTG: $7.90
CO: $27.12
BTN: $61.45 -----> 50/13/1.9

Preflop: Hero is dealt http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/4h.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/4d.gif (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $0.85</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/7c.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/5h.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/3s.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $1.80</font>, Hero calls $1.80

Turn: ($5.40) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/6s.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $5.40</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $17.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $28.60</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $67.79</font>
__________________________________________________ __________

Hand #2:
Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $30.43
BB: $23.71
UTG: $116.70 -----&gt; 34/6/1.75
CO: $31.16
Hero (BTN): $55.47

Preflop: Hero is dealt http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qc.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/9c.gif (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.10</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.85

Flop: ($2.55) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/2c.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/9d.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/6s.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $2.55</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, UTG calls $4.45

Turn: ($16.55) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/7c.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $16.55</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $47.37</font>
__________________________________________________ __________

In both cases I don't like my opponents low AF. Thus I'm questioning whether I'm shoving at the right spot?

[EMc]

Hand one good god yes.

Hand two, I dont think he is folding and I dont think you are ahead there. I probably just fold.

[ElDuque]

I can't fathom that you are behind in hand one.

WRT to hand 2, unless the guy is a maniac, you are behind. Getting check raised and then continuing to lead on the next street screams strength.

It seems strange - but hardly impossible -- to me that he would lead out on the flop with a set however. So, I would have to put the guys range as 67 ,78, 97, 85, 10's, J's, Q's or something like Ac6c.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,684 games 0.005 secs 536,800 games/sec

Board: 2c 9d 6s 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.556% 37.56% 00.00% 1008 0.00 { Qc9c }
Hand 1: 62.444% 62.44% 00.00% 1676 0.00 { QQ-TT, A9s, Ac6c, 97s, 87s, 85s, 76s, 97o, 87o, 85o, 76o }

You have about 40% equity against the hands that beat you (not including sets), and I suspect you have a little fold equity against other draws or A9, K9, J9, Q9, A6 or whatever junk he might be limping with and overplaying. If he has a set, however, you are drawing fairly slim. It would have to depend on your read whether he is betting out with monsters on the flop.

With stacks this size, and as much $ as he has put into the pot, you could probably stack him even if a club lands after a call.

But, if you are averse to variance then the fold is the best play, IMO. So much depends on your read of the guy though.

[vanoff]

In the 1st case I made quite some ambitious calls so I can flop/draw to a monster and thus stack him. I'm behind against one hand only: 89. (I'm excluding the chance that he has 48 since I have two fours already). Turn push is correct.

On the second case I seem to be behind and thus should fold. Although I haven't played that many hands vs this opponent I somehow felt that he played his monsters from behind and now that he's betting big he's leading, thus it's a sign of weakness. Against an unknown it's a fold, but it's marginal with my weak read here.

Results:
Hand #1
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $5.40</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $17.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $28.60</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $67.79</font>, BTN calls all-in for $30.20
Uncalled bet of $8.99 returned to Hero
Uncalled bet of $0.00 returned to BTN

River: ($123) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Kd.gif (2 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $123.00 ($2 Rake)

BTN had http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/9c.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/8c.gif (straight, nine high) and WON (+$59.55)
Hero had http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/4h.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/4d.gif (straight, seven high) and LOST (-$61.45)
__________________________________________________ __________
Hand #2
<font color="red">UTG bets $16.55</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $47.37</font>, UTG calls $30.82
Uncalled bet of $0.00 returned to UTG

River: ($111.29) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/5h.gif (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $111.29 ($2 Rake)

UTG had http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/9h.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/8h.gif (straight, nine high) and WON (+$53.53)
Hero had http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qc.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/9c.gif (a pair of nines) and LOST (-$55.47)

Good shove /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Sordini]

#1 (This may get some bad responses but IMO!) Fold to villians flop raise. stack protection as your OOP. As played and with the outcome of the turn however, I think you did the right thing.

#2 You cant shove this flop. You cant shove this turn.

[vanoff]

For Hand #2 I don't think that I'd do this again at these stakes. Guess I was steaming a little bit to make such marginal all-in.

For Hand #1.. hmmm if I don't re-raise back I'll face a raise on the river, then fold a straight at 25NL? He's not totally unaggressive. Unless he's got an AF below 1 I'm having a tough time folding it on the turn. Maybe I'm doing a -EV decision here and I have a leak /images/graemlins/frown.gif Definitely tough spot with Hand #1.