NL25 - AK Flops TPTK : Bet Into On Dangerous Flop

[hanover]

Villain is 16/12/1.25 after about 40 hands but that's datamined. I sat down at the table just a few hands ago.

After his donk he has ~$15 left. Is this a clear push?


Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $22.51
BB: $27.98
UTG: $22.45
MP: $24.75
Hero (CO): $25.00
BTN: $43.14

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.00</font>, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $2.00

Flop: ($6.35) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $4.00</font>, Hero ?

[BevillTheDevil]

yea this sucks, If we push we probably only get called by hands that beat us or like 50/50 w/ a combo draw probably. I think i might just call and re-eval turn. Kinda just wanta muck it on the flop b/c of nitty stats but 40 hands isnt much to go by and thats probably weak/tight anyways...raise would be fun but that pot commits us, callin does allow him to draw for free pretty much but i think its probably the best option.

[vixticator]

Strange lead into 3-bet from him. It looks like AK, AQ or JJ. Possibly TT, or low PP? AJ? KQ? Hard to say with only stats. Readless with just stats the lead looks like a plz don't raise me bet. Or he wants it to look that way. I like calling but the turn is going to be difficult no matter what card comes. Meh, fold?

[Capone]

With those stats his UTG opening range PF is very thin. Wouldn't you guys think that he has at least AA-TT, AK, or AQ.

He's not a very aggresive player either, so with those stats and a lead into that scary board I'm pretty confused on what the best line is. I think I might find a fold here.