10NL sweet flop faces donkbet.

[wackybrak]

no reals reads, no real table image. I put villains range here as TT+.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($12.65)
Button ($3.80)
SB ($11.55)
BB ($20.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.20.

Flop: ($1.55) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $19</font>, Hero calls $12.15 (All-In), Button folds.

Turn: ($25.85) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($25.85) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $25.86

[prodonkey]

I call with 2 overs and flush draw all day.

[Spurious]

standard

[MrGrand]

Insta call

[aiverson0323]

dont post results, but here u might wanna 4 bet to 2 bucks, just to thin out the BB....if he shoves you def call...if he shoves on the 4 bet pf...u can reconsider....its hard to say since we all know u hit ur flush...KP

[Jay_Whufc]

Overbet pushes like this I have often found to be sets. Why they do it, I dont know but this is my experience. That said, Im prob still calling

Edit: Im not necessarily saying he has a set, his range is obv wider but just a general observation

[mvdgaag]

I call, because I like to gamble... Against the 3bet preflop this only adds a lot of variance and zero profit.

AA/KK/QQ have you dominated and you are behind.

[prodonkey]

well if you put him on a set you should be folding.. you only have 25% equity vs a set. However if you give him a little bigger range, easy call.. and I've seen people do this with crap like K8o.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.585% 39.58% 00.00% 10581 0.00 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 60.415% 60.42% 00.00% 16149 0.00 { TT+, 77, 22 }

[mvdgaag]

wow, those numbers surprise me.

The way I figured:
AA-QQ: you have 12 outs and are flipping
TT-JJ: you have 15 outs or roughly 60%
77/22: you have 9 outs and 35%

So 3 hands are flipping, two hands are ahead 10% and two hands are behind 15%. This averages out so you are slightly behind... Where did I go wrong?

EDIT:
Even worse: TT/77/22 are at 35%
You are ahead of JJ at 60% equity
You are flipping against AA-QQ

[prodonkey]

you only have 9 outs vs AA

and 2/7/T all need lumped together since they are all sets.. and you don't have 9 outs vs them since a club will pair the board.

[mvdgaag]

ok 7c is no out against a set. I'm not counting runner/runner board pairs with a club, because they are very unlikely...

AA: 9 outs
KK/QQ: 12 outs
JJ: 15 outs
TT/22: 8 outs (7c will give him a boat)
77: most likely 9 outs since the 7c will be in his hand more often.

(9 + 2*12 + 15 + 2*8 + 9) / 7 =~ 10.4 outs against his range. This is about 42% equity.

If that 39.5 is the AQ I rest my case /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[danny8]

if you think 22 and 77 are in his range then hes obv 3betting with any pair, and i cant see him c/f when he doesnt flop aset. so if you think they're in his range i call.

But... if you put him on TT+ then its a fold surely? your a 36/64 dog

[prodonkey]

wait, what?

you are a 44/56 dog vs TT+ so it's an easy call.

[Jay_Whufc]

Does everyone realise the villain open pushing the flop had cold called a small raise and min 3bet pre flop. He is not the original 3 bettor. I dont think it changes his range all that much though.

[danny8]

oooh yea forgot to include the flop in pokerstove haha

im an idiot

[prodonkey]

I do.. he doesn't have TT+, he's prolly got a set or some crap like KT. which makes it an easy call imo still.

[foxmoor]

i don't think villain here has AA/KK/QQ, because he didn't raise pre-flop.

the only hands villain shoves here and you are ahead of are AT,JJ (15 outs for you to win).

given the pre-flop action and the texture of the flop two pair is unlikely.

TT,77,22 are in his range also.we are 3-to-1 underdog here.

that said folding isn't bad.

[ocdscale]

[ QUOTE ]
TT/22: 8 outs (7c will give him a boat)
77: most likely 9 outs since the 7c will be in his hand more often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you see what's wrong with this reasoning?