AA flops top set oop.. gets called to river, deep stack

[prodonkey]

Villain is 46/3/.5

How much should I be betting on the river.. what kind of range of hands can I put him on?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $158.35
Hero (BB): $98.50
UTG: $40.00
BTN: $91.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/As.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Ac.gif (4 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, UTG calls $2.50, SB calls $2.50

Flop: ($9) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/4c.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Ad.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/8d.gif (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.75</font>, UTG folds, SB calls $6.75

Turn: ($22.50) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/6c.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $15.75</font>, SB calls $15.75

River: ($54) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/3s.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets ???

[tarheeljks]

bet more on every street so you can shove the river for ~psb. i imagine he was on a diamond draw, hopefully not 57. as played idk 40-45?

[prodonkey]

He was taking quite a long time before calling the bets.. I really didn't think he had a flush draw, usually people call much quicker when they are drawing.

[Wondercall]

I doubt that this particular villain has plans for a big river cr. His river check looks like a missed fd or maybe even the case Ax trying to get to a cheap showdown. I honestly don't believe you will ever see 57 here, villain is likely to vb river. I think the question here is how much do you think you can get him to call on the river if you dismiss missed fds.

[prodonkey]

well that's what I was thinking.. what is he gonna call with an ace? if it's Ax 2 pair it will be anything.

[Brian O'Nolan]

I bet $35-40 and call a shove, I think you see 88 or something weird often enough if he CRAI. But that would def. be a lousy spot w/ villain's stats.

[jasonfish11]

Anyone dislike shoving?

I figure shoving makes it look like you are trying to take the pot on a missed hand. Villan might call with 99 even if he thinks you missed your draw. Ive seen a lot of people call huge overbets in the lower limits because it looks like their opponent just missed and is taking a stab at it.

[Brian O'Nolan]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone dislike shoving?

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't like it 2 BI deep. Villain might not be a rocket scientist but assuming hero doesn't have a crazy image he knows you aren't bluffing. There would be no reason to overbet bluff here.

[corsakh]

I imagine he is not getting away from $25 with a weak ace.

[hunt1897]

If villian is on a draw and missed, he is not calling anything. If "A" or 2 pair or better, he will call almost anything.


SHOVE.

[prodonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
I imagine he is not getting away from $25 with a weak ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I ended up betting.. he timed down to 2 seconds.. and called with AQ

[corsakh]

Given AQ is the top of his range, its as much as you could get.

[hunt1897]

[ QUOTE ]
Given AQ is the top of his range, its as much as you could get.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree completely.

[jasonfish11]

I think he is more likely to snap call a shove with AQ than the bet of $25.

$25 screams value where as shove doesnt scream anything. Shove means well he could have a straight, a set, a missed flush draw, Ax and wants me to fold. Villan is really passive 46/3/.4 or what ever it was. I bet he calls a shove too.

[billdozer]

This seems like a spot where you would want to get paid off, so shoving might be a bit of an over bet when you still have around $60 behind. I like betting $25 here and not risk scaring off an A-x.

[prodonkey]

I have over 70 behind still.. I don't think he's calling 70 with AQ, he berated himself in chat for 10 minutes for knowing better as it was. He either has an A.. or he missed his draw.. he doesn't have a set or straight or anything. So he's either going to fold if he missed.. or pay off a moderate sized bet.. ya he was a donk, but he was folding to my c-bets and such normally, so imo he's never going to pay off with something like a pair of 9's here as someone suggested.

[jasonfish11]

Ok villan is not what any of us would consider a "good" player he is 46/3/.5. I bet he thinks his AQ is good. That board isnt very threatening to TPGK. Would I call a shove with AQ no but I think this guy would. I think he calls anything and raises nothing with AQ here.

[prodonkey]

maybe someone can do the math.. my brain is mush right now from beimg up for 30 hours, how often does he have to call a shove for it to be +ev over him calling 25 almost every time?

[corsakh]

Say he calls $25 90%, thats $22.5

$22.5 of $70 is 32%

He has to calls at least 1 in 3 to make this play breakeven.

In cases like this I shove if I have say $200 behind and some history.

[prodonkey]

I don't think he calls 1 in 3.. if he has 2 pair he does.. with as passive as he is, I don't think there is any way to know when he has the 2 pair though, cuz I don't think he's going to check raise me without the nuts.

[corsakh]

I still think a even someone passive is fairly likely to bet the river with two pair rather than check on this board.

[MrGrand]

I bet like 19ish on turn and then propably 50 on the river
I think this should be fine
he propably c/rs turn with 57 imo
He might have here wierdly played sets/2 pairs/Axs/busted flush draws

[Go_BroKe]

[ QUOTE ]
Say he calls $25 90%, thats $22.5

$22.5 of $70 is 32%

He has to calls at least 1 in 3 to make this play breakeven.

In cases like this I shove if I have say $200 behind and some history.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he calls the $25 bet 90% of the time, because there are busted flushdraws in his range, which don't call this bet.

[Capone]

I bet $45 or so here.

[Daniel LeClaire]

Already been a lot of discussion on this but, I would shove. I think you get looked up quite a bit, especially by a guy like this.