50NL;call w/98 in bb;lead flop; check turn, over3bet all-in on A river

[Lego05]

Villian was unknown - Like 5 hands.

Who likes it? I'm quite confident in my play (river overbet) here, but comments are still fine.

Hopefully this will get some people to start thinkingabout some things and maybe learn a little. I'll post my thoughts street by street later including the range I was thinking about for him each street.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($81.65)
MP ($56.45)
CO ($54.75)
Button ($38.80)
SB ($49.50)
Hero ($55.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.50.

Flop: ($2.25) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.8</font>, UTG calls $1.80.

Turn: ($5.85) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: ($5.85) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $7.6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $52.3</font>, UTG ...

[Jer672]

i would like it a lot better if we knew villian was capable of stacking off with a hand like AK, AQ, A7 that might have floated/called the flop.

[fees]

bet the turn, im not sure if ur hand is a bluff or for value.. eitiher way dont shove make it like 24.5

[Lego05]

Unless a villian has like TAGgy stats or I've played with him before and know better I'll just assume that they will stack off with TPTK with AK and maybe AQ too.

Ok finally finished compacting my database and poker tracker seems to be working and all so I'm going to play now. I'll try to post my street by street thoughts tonight.

[Jer672]

meh the more i think about it the more im torn about it. your 3b overshove could easily look like a bluff to a random and thus might get called by a lone A.

also, i cant see him having many hands that beat you. without knowing anything about villain lets assume he will not minraise UTG with T7/57 so it is unlikely he is slowplaying a straight. he could be slowplaying a set (ive seen tricky randoms play a set like this) i think 77 is definitely in his range and might be trying to rep the A on the river to salvage his busted draw. its pooooossible he might have a weak A that hit the flop too (A6, A7, A8, A9). i think most A9's will raise the flop though but villain could just be passive and only raise with a better hand. its also possible that villain has a better ace that he just did not want to give up on the flop (AK, AQ, AJ).

villains loosest possible range on the river: 66-99, A6-A9, AJ-AK

you are a 2-1 fav over this range and the majority of it i think he is calling with (though a read would help determine this) so i guess i like it??

[Jer672]

the mooooore i think about it the more unlikely it is that villain has a set here so disregard that about my previous post =)

[mattnxtc]

This really depends on the frequency to which he will stack off with ak.

against an unknown I think a raise to 20ish is goign to be a better bet in the long run as its hard even for ak to think he is ahead of you.

[sightless]

I hate the river play, just call his river raise. WHen he raises you on river either he has a very good hand which he might have slowplayed or made on the river. Or his very bad hands which are bluffs and are not calling any kind of raise. He just calls your bet with any medium strength hands.

I dont see many unkowns calling your shove with many hands that you beat

also bet turn vs unkown

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate the river play, just call his river raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Lego05]

Wow I think you guys are being wayy too tight here. Just call?


He like never has a set here. He like always has an A. If I am behind it's to A6.

[ajmargarine]

What Ax hands get to the river?

[Jer672]

[ QUOTE ]
What Ax hands get to the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

AK and AQ could easily call the flop bet and when they hit the A on the river then think that they are good.

[reef2287]

what does utg minraise with here? i am torn here as well, because usually, the only hands that call this are beating you-- with that flop texture, i really don't think even a donkey is calling with a k or a q because that raise screams strength-- at this level isn't a9 likely as well, i mean opponent dependent but why not just 3 bet river and have him call with his ak, i don't see him calling a push with just TPTK here

[infinite_loop]

What kind of hand does he min-raise UTG with? Does AK/AQ/AJ play this way?

[Disconnected]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What Ax hands get to the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

AK and AQ could easily call the flop bet and when they hit the A on the river then think that they are good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe...but (as already covered), do they stack off on the river? I don't think so, although I do think they may raise. I think that I would just call the raise.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What Ax hands get to the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

AK and AQ could easily call the flop bet and when they hit the A on the river then think that they are good.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Disconnected]

[ QUOTE ]
What kind of hand does he min-raise UTG with? Does AK/AQ/AJ play this way?

[/ QUOTE ]

Kinda hard to answer, although if someone is prone to min raising, I think you could include the big aces in their range.

[sightless]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What Ax hands get to the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

AK and AQ could easily call the flop bet and when they hit the A on the river then think that they are good.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

except those hands fold to a shove on river....

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What Ax hands get to the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

AK and AQ could easily call the flop bet and when they hit the A on the river then think that they are good.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

That's just crazy talk and wishful thinking vs what OP describes as an unknown.

[reef2287]

does anyone 3bet that river? instead of pushing ... or is the standard play to just call?

[cubase]

grunch.

Against an unknown this looks like FPS. His range for calling this flop is pretty wide. You lead he calls.

The 3 doesn't change anything. If he has a draw or still likes his hand, he's calling another bet here. Also, you are against an unknown. Readless. Readless, we play ABC. Bet your hand for value on the turn. With the club he could pick up additional outs if he had something like JcTc or QcJc.

The river becomes trickier IMO.

I might check/call the river or lead (fold to shove). I'm really not sure. I'd be interested in hearing others thought if we 2/3-3/4 the turn how we might play the river.

Because so many players love Ax, the A is real scare card for us. I'd rather see a K. I'd have to really consider the range of hands that called me on the river.

By check calling we can pick up some pots when draws that missed bluff, T9, K9s, Q9s, TT. I think if we lead the river we might actually fold worse hands that believe we double-barreled with AK.

The other benefit, is because the A is really a terrible card for us, we can check call a reasonable bet and take notes on this player.

We could also try a blocking bet on the river. He pretty much only raises us with Ax where x is on the flop. Otherwise he flat calls, and "nh" for us, take some notes.

Thoughts?

Edit: Minor edits for clarity.

Edit2: I forgot to point out another part of the thinking here. At my level (25NL), the min-raise UTG is often Axs, SC's, small PPs (22-99) and sometimes even suited one gaps. Occasionally Kxs, but the former ranges are more typical. This flop hits a lot of the min-raisers range. Your mileage may vary with this read at 50NL, but this min-raise has held pretty true during my journey from 2NL-25NL.

Also, as played, you may find yourself shoving your stack into a set against an ultra-slow player. You don't know he's a slowplayer though, because you have no reads. Even more justification for playing ABC.

Cliff notes:
Play ABC poker against a readless opp. Bet for value, flop/turn and play river with caution.

[DaycareInferno]

in my experiences, ep miniraise is 2 big cards more often than anything else. i can't really back that up with stats though. well, i could, if i wasn't so lazy, but you know.

[LG87]

don't see why you didnt lead out on the turn. that river really isnt a good card for you. i don't mind the lead out on the river. it's the reraise to 52.3 that seems pretty thin

[Lego05]

Ok here's my take on this hand:

PRE-FLOP:

W/e...wasn't thinking about his range much...it's a min-raise and I'm in the bb with a suited connector so call. This does tell me that he is probably not very good, probably not playing TAG, probably sucks at poker, and is probably not very good.

FLOP:

Ooooh top two, guess I should give a little thought to his range. Minraise UTG = Who knows - most likely any pair or 2 big cards. I'll lead - mid-pairs will probably call or maybe even raise, overpairs (including TT and JJ right now) will probably reraise, he might fold big cards but he might get floaty too.

TURN:

I thought this was the street that was most controversial...obviously I could keep betting. I was planning to check raise though. I thought big pairs would bet and I'd give him a chanc eto bet if he floated. Also mid-pairs may only call one more bet so now I can get them to call something on the river.

Oops he didn't bet...guess he doesn't have an overpair so probably either big cards or a mid-pair.


RIVER:

Ok make a bet that 77 or 55 or something like that will call a decent amount of the time. Hmmm he min-raises me on the ace. Midpairs don't do that. A set is very unlikely given how he played it and the fact that I have a 9 and an 8. Looks like 2 big cards with an A or possibly A6 or A7.

Now I'm surprised how many people have said he won't stack off with AK/AQ. Remember all the times you guys say that he will stack off with it because people can't fold TPTK with AK...well they still can't most of the time.

I've pretty much narrowed his range to A7,A6,AK,lesser chance of AQ. There are other holdings he could ahve as some may point out, but I believe that the hands I mentioned make up the vats majority of his range. I also believe he most likely will stack off with AK and maybe with AQ.


I therefore shove over his raise. (If he'd call a raise to 30 or w/e he'll call the shove IMO also.)


So that was my thinking.