50NL; AQs flops flush+gutshot - he calls c-bet; turn play

[Lego05]

Villian is 49.43/5.75/1.71 postflop agg. over 87 hands.


I have a standard play here, but I want to see what people think.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($16.85)
Button ($13.65)
Hero ($92.10)
BB ($50)
UTG ($58.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $3, MP folds, Button folds.

Flop: ($8.50) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, UTG calls $6.

Turn: ($20.50) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ???

[BackdoorQuads]

This is tricky. In general, I've been checking, both in and out of position (out of position, to keep the pot small and hope he doesn't price me out, and in position, to take the free card to my 12-out draw). But I'm not sure whether that's good or not. Looking at stacks, UTG has about $50 left on the turn, say we bet the pot and he moves in...Then there's $90 in the pot and it's $30 back to us, so we're almost getting odds to call...I don't know on this one...

[DaycareInferno]

i think betting something like $14 is better than checking. he might also have a draw or a weak pair that folds to a second barrel. even if he's prett floaty, i don't think he really has enough money left behind for a cr to be all that attractive.

[TheRenaissance]

The board texture didnt change, so we dont have any real reason to think villain will fold to a second barrel. Our equity has gone way down too, so to semibluff again isnt really a good idea without a better read. Villain has callstationstats and he is likely to have hit this flop in some way.

Check and take it from there.

[DaycareInferno]

the second bet represents a stronger hand than the first though, which is just a cbet. people fold to a second barrel on blank turns all the time.

[ajmargarine]

Stack a donk baby!

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

check and reevaluate.

depending on bet size, shove, raise, call and fold are all viable

[DaycareInferno]

you're evaluation of his hand really won't change at all though. he's probably going to bet just about anything he called with on the flop, so you're kind of just pissing into the dark doing that.

i guess you can feel good about folding if he bets enough on the turn that it becomes your only move, but i'd rather not aim to feel good about folding if betting seems like a decent option.

[ajmargarine]

Check flop. C/r ai there ftw.

[wulfpacker21]

[ QUOTE ]
Check flop. C/r ai there ftw.

[/ QUOTE ]

i hope your not talkin about c/r the turn

[DaycareInferno]

setting aside the option of checking on the turn, why isn't betting 2/3ish a decent option?

sometimes you will get a fold, although obviously not nearly so often as you would on the flop.

sometimes you will get an all in raise and have to fold

sometimes you will get flat called. in this case, doesn't it seem likely that you're going to get paid on the river after 2 calls?

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
Check flop. C/r ai there ftw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying I should CRAI on flop? That's kinda a big overbet.


Why is it better to check flop rather than c-bet like I normally do?

[infinite_loop]

In these spots I really like check-raising. And if they bet small enough, you might even get folds a decent amount of the time.

[DaycareInferno]

i would like the cr more if he had, like, another 10-20 bux or something. if he makes a decent sized turn bet, he's going to have a hard time releasing most of his hands to a raise.

[Knuckles]

I don't like the check raise here. I don't think we actually have that much fold equity against this opponent. He is isn't very aggressive and is likely to hand around with any hand. I think he could very well be a calling station.

[infinite_loop]

Well if you check and he checks behind you're not too disappointed. But you're also not folding here. Having FE is not so important in this situation. But I still think there has to be at least a little bit, which is entirely a bonus.

[DaycareInferno]

here is a hand i played just a little bit ago. about the same scenario, only villain has more stack behind left to lose. slighty lower vp on villain, and slightly more agro post flop.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $6.60
BB: $10.10
Hero (UTG): $12.15
MP: $4.20
CO: $28.45
BTN: $2.80

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, MP folds, CO calls $0.40, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.95) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.65</font>, CO calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.25) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $1.30</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.30</font>, CO calls $3.00

River: ($10.85) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Pot Size: $10.85 ($1.05 Rake)

CO had T/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (a pair of Jacks) and WON (+$4.45)
Hero had A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ([Ad Td] Ace Jack high) and LOST (-$5.35)

granted, that's nl10, but donks are donks. i realise that one hand isn't that big of a deal, but i figured i'd offer it up since it came up right after i got done posting here.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check flop. C/r ai there ftw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying I should CRAI on flop? That's kinda a big overbet.



[/ QUOTE ]

Sure. NLHE rewards bold and aggressive play. Be the crazy guy. It's fun.

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
setting aside the option of checking on the turn, why isn't betting 2/3ish a decent option?

sometimes you will get a fold, although obviously not nearly so often as you would on the flop.

sometimes you will get an all in raise and have to fold

sometimes you will get flat called. in this case, doesn't it seem likely that you're going to get paid on the river after 2 calls?

[/ QUOTE ]

Quantity each of those "sometimes" as a percentage, and sum the EV of each option based on a 2/3 PSB. You'll have your answer, you will have learned something, and the answer will help everyone here. I'd do it myself, but I did math all weekend and my head is hurting.

[DaycareInferno]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
setting aside the option of checking on the turn, why isn't betting 2/3ish a decent option?

sometimes you will get a fold, although obviously not nearly so often as you would on the flop.

sometimes you will get an all in raise and have to fold

sometimes you will get flat called. in this case, doesn't it seem likely that you're going to get paid on the river after 2 calls?

[/ QUOTE ]

Quantity each of those "sometimes" as a percentage, and sum the EV of each option based on a 2/3 PSB. You'll have your answer, you will have learned something, and the answer will help everyone here. I'd do it myself, but I did math all weekend and my head is hurting.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, its hard to really say how often he'd do what, but lets say he folds 1/3, moves in 1/3, and calls 1/3.

when he folds, we gain $20.5
when he moves in we lose $14
when he calls ?

we're a little better than 3:1 to hit our draw. when we don't hit our draw, we lose $14. when we do hit our draw, there will be $48 in the pot and villain has $36 left behind and has already called twice. if we push and get called, our net gain is about $70. so, if villain calls when we hit our draw 2/3 the time, we make $46 per, a net of $4 when called, and an overall ev of +3.5.

of course, 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 probably isn't realistic, but as long as you don't get more pushes than folds, you should be ok.


p.s. its 3 am and i'm semi-retarded, so sorry if i butchered that.

edit: actually, i can already see that i butchered that. on the times that villain folds the river, we also gain $34.50, so we don't need nearly so many river calls to come out alright.

[TheFoxNL]

i think a Check raise is bad in this situation
villian has to passive stats IMO to make this work
if he is on a draw he will just check along
bet the flop
and betting out on the turn around $16-$18

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
if he is on a draw he will just check along

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a bad thing.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check flop. C/r ai there ftw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying I should CRAI on flop? That's kinda a big overbet.



[/ QUOTE ]

Sure. NLHE rewards bold and aggressive play. Be the crazy guy. It's fun.

[/ QUOTE ]


Hmmm, AJ, I wouldn't have thought you would suggest this. Even assuming he bets full pot a pot sized raise by me would be to 32 and you're saying I should bump it up to 55. It seems big to me....I'll keep thinking about it and try to do some math.


As played though I think I'm starting to like a check on turn....most villians here will probably fold rarely to a turn bet. If I check many might check through and if they do bet it would probably be a pretty small bet. The only downside I think then is that I might not stack him if I hit on the river. Therefore I think the bigger the stacks the better it is for you to put out a blocking bet yourself. However, here with 118 or so BB's deep I think just checking the turn may be best. I'm gonna have to keep thinking about this.

ANYWAY here's my turn action and the results:


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($16.85)
Button ($13.65)
Hero ($92.10)
BB ($50)
UTG ($58.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $3, MP folds, Button folds.

Flop: ($8.50) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, UTG calls $6.

Turn: ($20.50) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $24</font>, Hero calls $12.

River: ($68.50) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks.

Final Pot: $68.50

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG has Ks Js (one pair, kings).
Hero has Qs As (high card, ace).
Outcome: UTG wins $68.50. </font>

[paulnic]

if u check here and he bets 2\3 pot are u folding?? i prefer being the aggressor. as previously said many players call the c bet but wont call the bet on the turn. even if villain calls u still have many outs so i bet out here.

[paulnic]

hmmmmmm spade would have been nice....

[holdme]

okay, despite results, i'm gonna have to agree with aj and say stackadonk.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
if u check here and he bets 2\3 pot are u folding??

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[geoncic]

bet ~13-15, he may also be on a draw here. checking almost tells him that you are on a draw and will prevent a value bet if you do hit your hand on the river.

bet here. If he is on a lower flush draw, you can stack him if you hit. if he has TPTK and he just calls, then he has made a mistake and it is +EV for you if you inclued implied odds.

Hope he doesn't reraise.

[paulnic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if u check here and he bets 2\3 pot are u folding??

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

well bet turn then imo

[monkover]

could any1 of those guys seuggesting a turn c/rai is good elaborate why?! I don´t get it. we don´t seem to have a lot of fe and we might see the river for free.