10nl KK facing raise

[thedopplegangers]

villain is 16/13 over 125 hands

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

villain (SB): $14.15
BB: $15.60
UTG: $11.40
MP: $4.70
Hero (CO): $13.50
BTN: $15.65

Preflop: Hero is dealt K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.10, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, BTN calls $0.40, villain calls $0.35, BB folds, MP calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.70) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 Players)
<font color="red">villain bets $1.00</font>, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">villain raises all-in to $13.75</font>, Hero ????

[shoxbb6]

Fold, this is a set nearly always, especially from a villain w/ those stats.

[uminchu]

wow are you serious at 10NL this is KQ and AQ i believe and flush draws, i think its close but you could call this

[Havok]

Good post. Tough hand. I agree with shoxbb6. It smells most likely like a set given his stats and that flop. Just out of curiosity what were your stats. If you've been playing real loose he may be putting you to the test with a hand you beat. But, probably not.

[thedopplegangers]

yea i was playing 16/11

[gedanken]

It's the overbet that always puzzles me. Isn't a set trying to extract from preflop raiser? Seems like a stop-n-go or just a standard 4-bet to $9 would be more certain to get money to the middle. The overbet seems to NOT want a call.

Seems like this is more understandable from 9/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif or something like that. I guess there aren't as many of those hands as there are 55+88.

Seems like the flush draws don't give us reason to call (I've got to discount those), but if you think AQ and KQ are in the range, you're ok:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

Board: 5c Qs 8s
Hand 0: 19.621% { KdKh }
Hand 1: 80.379% { QQ, 88, 55, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s }


Hand 0: 52.424% { KdKh }
Hand 1: 47.576% { JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s }


Hand 0: 37.919% { KdKh }
Hand 1: 62.081% { QQ, 88, 55, AsKs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s }


Hand 0: 53.221% { KdKh }
Hand 1: 46.779% { QQ, 88, 55, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, AQo, KQo }

[Ikaika]

The overbet is the only one that makes sense if he's going to raise here...if he bets smaller he's totally pot committed so he may as well just shove and get some extra fold equity.

[RickOSU]

first post in micro-stakes (wow I feel bad for micro players), but you better call this if you like money. Too likely he has KQ, AQ, FD. Callalalalallclalall fast

[canavarr]

villain looks solid, so I'd fold here.
you are either basically drawing to a 2outer (against a set) or 68% favorite against FD, 55% favorite against FD w/ ace of spades. So you are not really way ahead when you are ahead but you are practically drawing dead when behind. so fold!!

[TheFoxNL]

those stats really make it hard but still i would call
this can be AQ so many times

[cooker3]

*Grunch*

Eww, tough spot. I don't fold this mainly because it's 25nl and I assume everyone is a donk until proven otherwise and think he could do it with aq a bit and also a flush draw.
I call but don't like it

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
wow are you serious at 10NL this is KQ and AQ i believe and flush draws, i think its close but you could call this

[/ QUOTE ]
Nits at 10nl are the same as nits at any other level

[gedanken]

[ QUOTE ]
if he bets smaller he's totally pot committed so he may as well just shove and get some extra fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is my point. If he's got a set, the last thing he wants is hero folding. Pot committed=good, fold equity=bad.

[skiller3]

Those stats are solid. You are very likely way behind here, and even when you are ahead you are only ahead slightly.

I dump the hand.