To fish or not to fish?

[Capitan23]

Villian seems like an average player. Hasn't bluffed alot, havn't seen him slow play anything.


I put this guy on a Ace, maybe a king, and I'm pretty confident about that read. I have 12 outs after flop (any Q or diamond). Would it be better to try and raise his bet on the flop instead of call to discourage a turn bet?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $20.40
BB: $22.20
UTG: $29.85
Hero (BTN): $26.15

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, SB folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) K/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $2.10</font>, Hero calls $2.10

Turn: ($6.30) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $6.30</font>, Hero?

Here I'm 25% to hit, pot odds say nay. Do any of you call here?

what i did in white

<font color="white"> I folded. If we were both deepstacked I might have called figuring to win a [censored] if I hit. </font>

[Profish2285]

Well do you think villain can fold a king here at the minimum? If he is capable of at least that, then I would raise the flop and then check behind the turn UI. As played I fold due to you clearly not having odds here even if you stack him on the river.

[bkar824]

Raise the flop. Build the pot. Get yourself the option of a free river, he'll probably check turn. Not to mention possible fold equity on flop.

As played, fold.

[Womble]

Fold the turn - raise the flop. If he pushes, call

Board: Ad 9d Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.047% 40.05% 00.00% 11894 0.00 { JdTd }
Hand 1: 59.953% 59.95% 00.00% 17806 0.00 { 99, AKs, A9s, K9s, AKo, A9o, K9o }

[HojoMofo]

that range is ridiculously tight as well.

[robinmbuk]

I would probably make a pot size raise on the flop seeing as we have position. If villian shoves, I think we have to call with this draw (althought thats a maths problem probably). By raising this flop I hope villian who is OOP will check the turn and I'll probably take a free turn card, unless I have a good read that villian will prob fold to turn bet from us. This is just the same as raising for a free (techincally half price) turn card in limit holdem.

[kolotoure]

Not raising the flop here leaves money on the table

[jt51]

i'd fold

[55offsuit]

The best advices has already been giving. Raise flop. It's easy. It's also very likely we get a free river card playing that way since we have position.

That range posted is WAAAAAAY to tight, please add in a few couple 1 pair hands there and we are even more of a favorite.

[TheArtfulDodger]

same here: raise flop. the way it was played, fold.

[Gullanian]

Also you have more outs than 25% I think, you also have a gutshot.

[creamfillin]

Raise the flop. Worst thing that happens is he 3BAIs and we are a small dog and most of our outs are likely clean. Best thing that happens is that happens is he folds or gives us a free turn card which are both very ++++EV

[infinite_loop]

Well given that he has half his stack in the pot, there's a pretty good chance you get the rest if you hit. But I think it's pretty borderline and obv high variance. I probably fold.

[mattnxtc]

You raise the flop you can probably see a free turn and sae some money.