Discussion on Inducing Bluffs

[pr0crast]

Button sat down 2 orbits ago and already got stacked playing T9o or some crap UTG. I have him marked as reckless and fishy. The river card is a scare card, and I hesitate before checking so villain can get a whiff of my weakness.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($36.50)
BB ($57.80)
Hero ($50)
MP ($100.05)
CO ($75.40)
Button ($41.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, Button calls $3.50.

Turn: ($11.75) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7.75</font>, Button calls $7.75.

River: ($27.25) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $27.25</font>, Hero calls $27.25.

Final Pot: $81.75

Post any comments you have about this hand, or post any other hand you like where you think bluff inducement may apply.

[Reup Gang]

im much more inclined to give villain's PSB credit for a strong hand rather than a bluff no matter how i played the hand.

[pr0crast]

[ QUOTE ]
im much more inclined to give villain's PSB credit for a strong hand rather than a bluff no matter how i played the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Even if you have a very recent read that villain is playing extremely recklessly? Also, we have the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, making the only reasonable flush here be 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, and villain is definitely trying to rep a flush here, IMO.

[Wooden Ta Sheng]

[ QUOTE ]
In my mind, the best time to induce a bluff is when the villain is someone capable of making moves, is likely to have a missed draw, is not likely to have a hand he will call a reasonably sized bet with, and you have played the hand in such a way that you can believably feign weakness.

In this example, button sat down 2 orbits ago and already got stacked playing T9o or some crap UTG. I have him marked as reckless and fishy. The river card is a scare card, and I hesitate before checking so villain can get a whiff of my weakness. I think hands like this do a lot for my winrate and I'd like to get some discussion going on the best situations to induce bluffs from. Post your hands, reads, comments, questions, or anything else having to do with bluff inducement in general.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($36.50)
BB ($57.80)
Hero ($50)
MP ($100.05)
CO ($75.40)
Button ($41.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, Button calls $3.50.

Turn: ($11.75) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7.75</font>, Button calls $7.75.

River: ($27.25) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $27.25</font>, Hero calls $27.25.

Final Pot: $81.75

[/ QUOTE ]

IMHO, this isn't a good place to induce a bluff. Based on your description of how the hand played, I take it you won this hand, though.

[pr0crast]

The results don't matter. If you disagree on inducing a bluff here, please explain your reasoning as I have mine, and maybe we can get a productive discussion going.

Keep in mind villain only has a PSB left here, so if your plan is to bet for 1/2 to 2/3 pot, are you really going to fold when he pushes over you? If your plan isn't to induce a bluff here, is your plan to check/fold? That seems gross to me, given reads.

[Reup Gang]

yes. i assume calling two streets + PSB on a non-super-drawy flop = hand better than AJ

[gimmetheloot]

this looks OK?

unless he spiked 2 pr on the river or some backdoor draw on us, we beat him v often given his line. NH OP.

Make a note of this PSB on the river with what he had.

[pr0crast]

[ QUOTE ]
yes. i assume calling two streets + PSB on a non-super-drawy flop = hand better than AJ

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd often agree with you, but are you taking into consideration the fact that the river card is the perfect card for him to bluff on? Are you thinking about how villain looks like he's repping a flush, and what flush hand is he calling on the flop and turn with (besides maybe 78s)? If you give villain credit for his PSB, what hands do you think he might have that would lead him to bet like this? If he has a set or two pair, why would he randomly push on the flush card, a card WE are more likely to be afraid of and fold to, when he could just extract a value bet?

[Lego05]

The actual pot sized bet would have made me nervous....I do agree though (with that read) that there is a very good chance this is a bluff. It could also be two pair hit on turn or river though.

Personally I believe I try to do stuff like this more often than most. I especially try to keep people's ranges wide in the situation where I have a big pair and the flop comes A high more often than most instead of just c-betting (usually in position) although I think that is a slightly different situation.

I'm not going to now, but I may look through my poker tracker database tomorrow and look for hand like OP is talking about. One hand does come to mind though. I actually check all 3 streets here with a very strong hand and I bet people will disagree wih it here. I think I can back it up though. (I probably have better examples for this post but I don't want to look now and this immediately came to mind):


Villian is 48.72/33.33/13 postflop agg. over 39 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($98.15)
Hero ($100)
BB ($227.55)
UTG ($62)
MP ($164.30)
CO ($90.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $1, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, BB calls $4, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($15) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $10</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($35) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $25</font>, Hero calls $25.

River: ($85) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $187.55 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $60 (All-In).

Final Pot: $205

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Tc Ts (four of a kind, tens).
BB has Js Ah (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins $205. BB wins $127.55. </font>

[gimmetheloot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes. i assume calling two streets + PSB on a non-super-drawy flop = hand better than AJ

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd often agree with you, but are you taking into consideration the fact that the river card is the perfect card for him to bluff on? Are you thinking about how villain looks like he's repping a flush, and what flush hand is he calling on the flop and turn with (besides maybe 78s)? If you give villain credit for his PSB, what hands do you think he might have that would lead him to bet like this? If he has a set or two pair, why would he randomly push on the flush card?

[/ QUOTE ]

cuz u never have a flush either? like, literally, ever...

[Iwineverypot]

This just looks to me like he knows you have the Ace and is using his image to take you to value town. I puke and fold here, i dont really see what you can beat compared to how he played it.

[gimmetheloot]

[ QUOTE ]
This just looks to me like he knows you have the Ace and is using his image to take you to value town. I puke and fold here, i dont really see what you can beat compared to how he played it.

[/ QUOTE ]

what does villain have though? A2, a BDF, or air...im taking air more often that either.

[Capone]

well, I think honestly we should value bet here, because we showed a lot of strength throughout the hand that checking just doesn't make sense and we will often get checked behind.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This just looks to me like he knows you have the Ace and is using his image to take you to value town. I puke and fold here, i dont really see what you can beat compared to how he played it.

[/ QUOTE ]

what does villain have though? A2, a BDF, or air...im taking air more often that either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree... I say if he actually has a real hand it's A2 more than anything else. I would think he's raising anything else earlier. I think it's a pretty good chance he's bluffing here. The full pot bet makes me nervous but I still think it's a pretty good chance he's bluffing.

[Capone]

a2 is definatly in his range

[Iwineverypot]

he could easily have a set, 45, backed into the flush, or alot of 2 pr combos. I do agree that it is air a decent % of the time, I just don't think it's often enough to make this a call. OP's hand is face up here IMO, and that river bet just looks too much like a value bet, unless villian has a read that hero is capable of folding a big ace here.

I fold river, we are only beating a busted st8 draw here IMO.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
Button sat down 2 orbits ago and already got stacked playing T9o or some crap UTG. I have him marked as reckless and fishy. The river card is a scare card, and I hesitate before checking so villain can get a whiff of my weakness.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($36.50)
BB ($57.80)
Hero ($50)
MP ($100.05)
CO ($75.40)
Button ($41.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, Button calls $3.50.

Turn: ($11.75) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7.75</font>, Button calls $7.75.

River: ($27.25) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $27.25</font>, Hero calls $27.25.

Final Pot: $81.75

Post any comments you have about this hand, or post any other hand you like where you think bluff inducement may apply.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO your turn bet over-represents your hand, and thus villain may be "bluffing" a hand which actually beats yours (2pr or something). I would check the turn and c/c river

[Wooden Ta Sheng]

[ QUOTE ]
The results don't matter. If you disagree on inducing a bluff here, please explain your reasoning as I have mine, and maybe we can get a productive discussion going.

Keep in mind villain only has a PSB left here, so if your plan is to bet for 1/2 to 2/3 pot, are you really going to fold when he pushes over you? If your plan isn't to induce a bluff here, is your plan to check/fold? That seems gross to me, given reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry it took so long to get back but I didn't have time to post a more detailed reply at the time.

A big problem that I have with you trying to induce a bluff in this hand on the river is that you only have TPGK in a large pot and you've put yourself in a bad enough spot where you probably can't fold to a push over a 1/2-2/3 pot bet or check/fold. If your hand doesn't have value in betting first in a large pot (knowing villain will call with a weaker hand), what makes you think it has more value in checking to induce a bluff in a large pot (knowing that he will bet a weaker hand)?

Big bets are for big hands and right now, your hand looks no where near big enough to comtemplate calling successfully the majority of the time with the assumption of inducing bluffs in this spot. Faced with this sizable bet by villain, I say your hand has a huge possibilty of now being a bluff catcher, which IMHO, is not good in this situation. I doubt villain thinks you're weak because you've played the hand strong thus far, so bluffing (after being induced) into a weak hand doesn't really fly here. Villain is representing better than TPGK and if he isn't (and you won the hand), this is why I think you posted it. If you really think this is such a successful tactic in the same spot over time then I wish you luck with your stacks (no offense).

[pr0crast]

[ QUOTE ]
If you really think this is such a successful tactic in the same spot over time then I wish you luck with your stacks (no offense).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the response. I understand your reasoning but it sounds to as if you are addressing the hand in a vacuum. In such a scenario I would agree with you wholeheartedly, but with a strong read, I only agree with you about 40%. In the end, perhaps this exact hand isn't the best example for others to learn from re: bluff inducing, but on the whole, I still believe that a decent % of my winnings have come from getting certain villains to bet into me with utter garbage when they would have definitely folded had I bet.

Over time I think this call in this particular spot with this particular read is marginally profitable, not hugely profitable. What I do think is hugely profitable is the whole concept of bluff inducing in general.

[corsakh]

Errr.. River is a total blank. And if you say he is reckless, there is no way he is calling two streets with garbage to may be bluff on the river. I'm pretty sure you are toast.