Flopped set, ugly turn.....help!

[Tiki]

This hand was played by a friend. Whilst I normally respect his advice, in this case there is some disagrement upon how best to proceed. Adjudication appreciated.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($0)
SB ($14.49)
BB ($22.13)
Hero ($50)
MP ($25.65)
CO ($36.61)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, CO calls $3.50.

Turn: ($11.75) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

How should hero proceed for the rest of the hand?

[robinmbuk]

Dirty turn card... I can't see anything but check and call if he gives you odds to boat up on the river, then try and get allin obv. Some players like to check behind on the turn when there draws hit as they think (sometimes correctly) that there river bets are more likely to get paid off if whereas you may fold to a turn bet.

[Fiksdal]

I like check/evaluate here

[Tiki]

[ QUOTE ]
I like check/evaluate here

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Anyone else?

[cooker3]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like check/evaluate here

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Anyone else?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like it as well

[shoxbb6]

I bet more on the flop, checking turn is best

[Lego05]

Ugly, ugly, ugly turn card.

I'm still thinking bet though.

[Nick C]

I think betting and checking are both okay. I probably would bet.

FWIW, you do, probably, still have the best hand.

[jessyj07]

[ QUOTE ]
I think betting and checking are both okay. I probably would bet.

FWIW, you do, probably, still have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree 100%. checking is ok but I bet here nearly all the time.

[DaycareInferno]

i would still bet the turn against most players. its not like heart draws and J9 are the only things that call you on the flop. kinda need to know something about villain to say what's best though.

[55offsuit]

My opinion.

Betting out seems like the best option. If we check we are likely to get a bet against us, and if we call and don't fill up, we let him fire the river with TPTK or something and let us fold the best hand. This hand gets played in a vacuum if we just check/call. His hand range is not only draws, and since we have a set here, we are ahead alot and should make him payoff with those top pair hands and not let him to be able to bet us off the best hand unless he has the skill to do so (raising us on turn representing a better hand than he has).

I think by checking here we will get payed off by worse hands like TP but I think they are likely to call us down too. Also, if we check we may call off 2 streets worth of betting paying him off more than if we bet/fold turn.

[Tiki]

Thanks for the replies so far. (bump)

[Fiksdal]

Tiki

I'll explain my reasoning for check/evaluate.

Villain might only have TP, but the draws that just hit were also a decent part of his range. If we check here, villan will usually check behind with his TP hands, and we can make a river value bet that villain will call wide given that the turn checked through, but only raise with hands that beat us, meaning we can easily fold if raised on river.

If villain bets the turn I usually put him on a straight/flush and call, looking to win a very big pot if the board pairs on the river. Possibly I overbet shove river in this scenario.

Sometimes we will get outplayed with this line (like if villain stabs turn to protect top pair or bluffs with a pure airfloat. Yet, I think the line described above is optimal overall. I have to say this is a tough spot indeed though.

[LastLife]

I like a bet out here. He called you in position and could have a wide range of hands. J9 and flush draws are in the range, but just a small percent.

[Splossy]

This is something I've been think about recently from an implied odds point of view.

When the villain calls 3.5 he clearly doesn't have the expressed odds to do so. He needs to win 14+ to get 4:1 and is only getting 8.25 (2.4:1). So he needs to make up 5.75, which is a reasonable bet for hero to make, if betting the turn. So if you bet everytime are you not justifying his call without him even having to rely on a loose call from you? Furthermore you are likely to call a smallish value bet on the river too?

What do you guys think about that? Have I got the sums wrong?

[Fiksdal]

Splossy

If villains range purely consists of flush draws, yes.

Villains range also has Tx and pps though, so thats why it's not completely true.

Also, we have redraw, 10 outs, even if villain hits a flush on the turn. And villain has massive reverse implied odds if somehow the board pairs when he hits his draw.

[Splossy]

Any idea how to factor them in to see what sort of betting sizes make sense?

For me this sort thing makes me struggle with concepts like pot control - small bets keep the pot small but give odds, big bets that get called make turn bets harder to keep small.

[Tiki]

[ QUOTE ]
Tiki

I'll explain my reasoning for check/evaluate.

Villain might only have TP, but the draws that just hit were also a decent part of his range. If we check here, villan will usually check behind with his TP hands, and we can make a river value bet that villain will call wide given that the turn checked through, but only raise with hands that beat us, meaning we can easily fold if raised on river.

If villain bets the turn I usually put him on a straight/flush and call, looking to win a very big pot if the board pairs on the river. Possibly I overbet shove river in this scenario.

Sometimes we will get outplayed with this line (like if villain stabs turn to protect top pair or bluffs with a pure airfloat. Yet, I think the line described above is optimal overall. I have to say this is a tough spot indeed though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Fiksdal. This makes sense to me.

[Unknown Soldier]

problem with checking to get value from pair/2pr hands later is that there is a million action killer cards

[mattnxtc]

I realize that it does put a flush out there but its not like a death card by any means. I still bet this out a lot.

[geoncic]

I bet/fold here on the turn. there are a large range of hands that he could call here with. ATs, JTs, KTs, JJ+

If he's calling with TPTK suited, then that puts him off of diamonds and the flush isn't a threat.

Any reads on CO?

bet/fold on turn c/evaluate on river if board doesn't pair.

if he had 88's 77's or TT's I would get stacked if the board paired :/

[Sebs]

c/c turn, open shove river if the board pairs

[bluffbetter]

Just to state the somewhat obvious, a good aggressive player here may be calling with 56s if he has a read that hero raises fairly wide but gives up easily without a great hand. Noone should have J9 here, but fish will sometimes obviously. So that leaves decent made hands,flushes and also the possibility villain called with the intention of bluffing later streets. I don't think they have the flush too often here and I bet the turn, but small enough to get called by weaker hands.