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View Full Version : Should I call w/flush draw + gut shot?


Nick82
07-16-2007, 03:02 PM
Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $15.05
Hero (BB): $36.48
UTG: $50.75
MP: $19.01
CO: $20.43
BTN: $58.37

Preflop: Hero is dealt 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero checks

Flop: ($2) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1.00</font>, Hero calls $1.00, <font color="red">UTG raises to $2.00</font>, MP folds, SB calls $1.00, Hero calls $1.00

Turn: ($8) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $3.50</font>, Hero calls $3.50, <font color="red">UTG raises to $14.00</font>, SB calls all-in for $9.05.

Pot is now $38.05 and it's $10.50 more to me...

So in theory I'm getting close to 4-1 for the flush draw, with the gut shot to boot, but then neither hand I'm drawing to is the nuts... Do I call?

cubase
07-16-2007, 03:18 PM
I can't see your straight being good even if it hits. You are in an unraised pot and both players really like their hands. My guess is you are against some combination of a set, two pair, and a straight. Your flush draw is probably the only hand that will win @ showdown, and if you are up against a set and a straight, you only have 7 outs as the 2h or 4h will make someone's boat. There is a chance, however, that you are against two pair and a set making your gutshot outs good. Enough guessing.

Let's pokerstove for fun... I'm only going to do one range for both players, you can stove further to tweak your equity based on your reads of the players.

Board: 7h 5h 2c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.852% 27.85% 00.00% 47938 0.00 { Qh3h }
Hand 1: 42.439% 41.71% 00.73% 71791 1252.50 { 77+, 55, 22, 86s, 75s, 72s, 86o, 75o, 72o }
Hand 2: 29.709% 28.98% 00.73% 49882 1252.50 { 77+, 55, 22, 86s, 75s }

Your equity with this range is 27.85%. You are getting 3.62:1 on your money. 1/(3.62+1) = 0.21.

27% &gt; 21%. Clear call against the above range. As you widen the range, your call becomes easier. As you narrow the range, your call becomes neutral to -EV.

The range will be based on your reads of the opps which you didn't provide, so you'll need to tweak.

In general, the UTG probably has a set or some sort of combo draw or 68s (limped with small PP or suited connectors). The SB has ATC and can easily hit all sorts of two-pair, sets, straight draws, etc.

With no reads though, we don't necessarily know that these players are going broke with 88+ in an unraised pot. Presumably no one has a pair bigger than 99 anyway, TT max.

I still think you are going to see set, two-pair and straights here more often than not with the occasional overpair.

Edit: minor tweaks