10NL 6 Max FT KK - Going with reads

[ZingZhang]

Kinda dangerous board and maybe ignore the flop bet, it's based on getting some sort of read from the player based on his other hands...not my usual c-bet lol
This is one hand where I thought the board really got worse for me but I've been trying to put people on hands and really go with it, then adjust if it goes wrong or understand why it went right.
What hand would you put villain on? If you need any other info, please say, I'll try to remember/check stats.
He's been fairly passive both pre and post flop, never raising but did bet tptk for about 2/3rd pot when checked to. He won a pot the hand previously by shoving top two when checked to twice. He's also calling a good percentage of raises pre-flop, standard 10NL really.
Does the Q help or hinder our read/hand?


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $4.75
BB: $13.50
UTG: $16.20
Hero (CO): $10.00
BTN: $6.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt Khttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, BTN calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.95) Jhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif Thttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.40</font>, BTN calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.75) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.10</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $2.20</font>, Hero calls $1.10

River: ($6.15) Qhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets all-in for $3.35</font>, Hero calls $3.35

Pot Size: $12.85 ($1 Rake)

[ZingZhang]

ZOMG, crap question? lol
Edit: Actually, my mistake, forgetting that it is still early in the U.S.

[geoncic]

BTN have 89s??

I don't think queen hurt you.

[cubase]

Baluga comes into play here on the turn. He thinks he's winning. He's holding AJ, KJ, AT, KT, QT, JT, 9T, 89, and maybe JJ.

Almost everything beats you.

If you are waiting for a "safe" river thinking he's drawing and are going to call any safe river all-in, then you might as well re-raise him all in on the turn. He's not folding his hand and you are unlikely to be checked on the river when most of his stack is already in.

I think you are behind once you are raised on the turn more often than not.

Quick-stove:

Board: Jd Ts Tc 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.337% 27.34% 00.00% 854 0.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 72.663% 72.66% 00.00% 2270 0.00 { JJ, AJs-ATs, KJs-KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AJo-ATo, KJo-KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o, 98o }

You can get better equity here by widening his turn-raise range, but I still think you will never get better than a coin-flip.

[ZingZhang]

Ty guys. Esp for the stoving cubase /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Unfortunately i do think you gave him a rather narrow range, he is still a donk and my flop bet was weak, wouldn't be surprised if his range was much wider still.
e.g. How about...?
Board: Jd Ts Tc 7h Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.650% 58.65% 00.00% 417 0.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 41.350% 41.35% 00.00% 294 0.00 { AA, QQ-JJ, 99-77, ATs+, A7s, KTs+, K7s, QTs+, J7s+, T9s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

I had him on a J as a near definite, not a ten and when the queen came I was quite happy as KQ or QJ was something he would prob play this way. I was more worried about the straight coming in for AK than anything. Should have got it in on the turn though, agreed.

[robinmbuk]

Well if he's as passive as you say he is then he has JJ for a boat or TX for trips. Turning the straight is alos a possiblity but this looks like TX most often. Although it seems weak if villian is really very passive then I fold to the turn minraise. This line is rarely - if ever a hand you beat from a loose/passive.

[Mr_Pathetic]

If he is passive he slowplayed a ten here. If he is me he has AJ lol.

[cubase]

[ QUOTE ]
Ty guys. Esp for the stoving cubase /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Unfortunately i do think you gave him a rather narrow range, he is still a donk and my flop bet was weak, wouldn't be surprised if his range was much wider still.
e.g. How about...?
Board: Jd Ts Tc 7h Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.650% 58.65% 00.00% 417 0.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 41.350% 41.35% 00.00% 294 0.00 { AA, QQ-JJ, 99-77, ATs+, A7s, KTs+, K7s, QTs+, J7s+, T9s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

I had him on a J as a near definite, not a ten and when the queen came I was quite happy as KQ or QJ was something he would prob play this way. I was more worried about the straight coming in for AK than anything. Should have got it in on the turn though, agreed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd still take out weak Jack hands and things like A7. He doesn't "wake up" when he hits a pair. He calls down hoping you are bluffing, IMO. When he wakes up, he thinks he has you beat. My guess is he thinks he has the best Jack or can beat a Jack. Also, I think a passive player is afraid of YOU having a ten (passives hate paired board, and will just call down with their pair, hoping you don't have one), so for him to bet, he has to have convinced himself that you aren't holding one, and it is very to easy to convince himself of that if he is holding one.

I like you adding in the AA/QQ hands, since this is a very possible holding. So essentially, anything he has that beats a Jack, + all the ten holdings, and the draw that hits on the turn is probably his range.

I'd like the results if you don't mind, as I'd like to analyze his play. You can post here or PM me.

[ZingZhang]

Maybes I misused passive: he called many many times and then folded whiffed flops, he's not noticeably over-aggro but will bet, so....just loose? He's 56/6 over a minute sample.
Mr P is closest, he had QJ. I was certain he had that on the river, was like a Eureka moment...instacall lol.
I was wondering if that was just random intuition or if there was anything particular about the hand that gives it away as looking at it now, 10x does take this line a lot. /images/graemlins/frown.gif
I hate folding to min raises, or min bets for that matter, though I recognize that some villains do use it when they have the nuts, a lot of the time they are pretty weak/don't wanna commit a lot to the hand but think you might fold.

[cubase]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybes I misused passive: he called many many times and then folded whiffed flops, he's not noticeably over-aggro but will bet, so....just loose? He's 56/6 over a minute sample.
Mr P is closest, he had QJ. I was certain he had that on the river, was like a Eureka moment...instacall lol.
I was wondering if that was just random intuition or if there was anything particular about the hand that gives it away as looking at it now, 10x does take this line a lot. /images/graemlins/frown.gif
I hate folding to min raises, or min bets for that matter, though I recognize that some villains do use it when they have the nuts, a lot of the time they are pretty weak/don't wanna commit a lot to the hand but think you might fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have his WTSD/W$SD, Turn aggression, and overall aggression?

Based on his holding, the word fish comes to mind vs passive. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Interesting betting line he took though. I would have expected a raise on the flop more often than on the turn. The shove on the river makes more sense now (though we'd probably see the same line or very close with the T). He probably decided you had a J after he min-raised and you still called. Nuts for him on the turn. Hehehe.

Be sure to take notes on this villian! You can definitely look him up a little lighter in the future.

As far as your original question, yes, go with your reads!

Just make sure you read includes an adequate range and hopefully know your equity against that range for that player.

And when he shows up with a hand that wasn't in your range, takes notes!

[ZingZhang]

Lol, I do sir, I do... AF turn is 2.0, total af post flop is 4.5 but overall just 1.2. Also went from flop to turn 66% and turn to river 83%, wasn't letting go of much. Can't seem to find WTSD/W$SD on PokerOffice, new software for me. Just 25 hands though, he didn't stay long after that.

Trying to work on ranges, reading the stickied posts atm

Fish is indeed an excellent description, the one I was looking for but hesitant to say. /images/graemlins/wink.gif Notes made at the time lol, good advice for anyone else reading though, always make notes!

Yep, think you're about right as to his thoughts, more or less what I was thinking too which is why I decided the Q was a sweet card for me lol. At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised to be beat here sometimes, esp at atc 10NL, but the timings and the min raise just made sense for KJ/QJ.
Cheers bro