AKs in a wet spot

[corsakh]

Villain is 20/16/3 datamined.
I suspect a 3bet light here very often, but I dont want to be playing OOP if my 4bet is called.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($30.75)
BB ($10)
UTG ($74.15)
MP ($68.85)
Hero ($53.40)
Button ($104.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $6.75</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $4.75.

Flop: ($14.25) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $9</font>, Hero calls $9.

Turn: ($32.25) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $37.65 (All-In)</font>, Button calls $23.65.

River: ($0) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $107.55

[pr0crast]

I think I like it. Your plan was to get it in on a brick turn, and C/F to a scare card?

I think KKh JJh AJh are a big enough part of his range to make this profitable. You're just hoping he doesn't have AA, AQ, or some random ass flopped flush.

[corsakh]

Yes. Since if he has AJh type of hand pushing flop would be a mistake.

[EMc]

cor,

If you are gonna 4 bet, make it a shove. What gives you reason to believe a light 4 bet?

[Lego05]

I'd 4bet pre. It doesn't matter so much about position if he calls because the pot will be about equal to your stack....so if you hit a K or A go all-in and if you don't check fold....unless you pick up a club draw.


As played I think this is tough. I really kinda think you're mostly either beat or splitting when he bets turn: AK,AQ,AA,QQ. KK,JJ,TT, and most other hands I woulda thought would check behind on turn. I dunno.

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
cor,

If you are gonna 4 bet, make it a shove. What gives you reason to believe a light 4 bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, shoving makes his life too easy. Most regulars dont have the guts to carry on their 3bet light into a shove when they face a 4bet.

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd 4bet pre. It doesn't matter so much about position if he calls because the pot will be about equal to your stack....so if you hit a K or A go all-in and if you don't check fold....unless you pick up a club draw.

As played I think this is tough. I really kinda think you're mostly either beat or splitting when he bets turn: AK,AQ,AA,QQ. KK,JJ,TT, and most other hands I woulda thought would check behind on turn. I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I shove turn he folds a lot of hands that I beat.

[EMc]

cor,

I still dont see why you figure he is 3 betting light. As you said, calling places you OOP in a bloated pot in a pretty severe RIO situation, where as shoving doesnt. If he is 3 betting light you will be unlikely to make much money from him postflop without being far behind.

[pr0crast]

Board: Ah Qh 2h 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.727% 42.73% 00.00% 282 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 57.273% 57.27% 00.00% 378 0.00 { AA, KdKh, KhKs, JdJh, JhJs, TdTh, ThTs, AQs, AQo, AdJh, AsJh }

Good enough for me.

edit: took out the Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif

[EMc]

pro,

how can he have the Q hearts when it is on teh board?

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd 4bet pre. It doesn't matter so much about position if he calls because the pot will be about equal to your stack....so if you hit a K or A go all-in and if you don't check fold....unless you pick up a club draw.

As played I think this is tough. I really kinda think you're mostly either beat or splitting when he bets turn: AK,AQ,AA,QQ. KK,JJ,TT, and most other hands I woulda thought would check behind on turn. I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I shove turn he folds a lot of hands that I beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say anything about shoving turn. I said if you 4bet pre-flop being OOP doesn't matter too much because the pot will be about equal to your stack. Therefore you would then get it all-in if you flop a pair of A's or K's and fold anything else besides a club draw.

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
cor,

I still dont see why you figure he is 3 betting light. As you said, calling places you OOP in a bloated pot in a pretty severe RIO situation, where as shoving doesnt. If he is 3 betting light you will be unlikely to make much money from him postflop without being far behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its kind of an ajustment thing that I took moving to 50NL.

Say at 10NL I used just to shove Aces to a 3bet like every single time and it was clearly EV+.

But now at 50NL, I face so many 3bets that shoving aces would be a mistake. And I 4bet them small instead. And so I do when I 4bet light. It gives me an opportunity to resteal the pot cheap. So if I dont shove AA there and I dont shove TT there, I cant really shove AKs either. I think /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Ah Qh 2h 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.727% 42.73% 00.00% 282 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 57.273% 57.27% 00.00% 378 0.00 { AA, KdKh, KhKs, JdJh, JhJs,

Good enough for me.

edit: took out the Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think he's betting those JJ and TT hands on the turn instead of checking behind?

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd 4bet pre. It doesn't matter so much about position if he calls because the pot will be about equal to your stack....so if you hit a K or A go all-in and if you don't check fold....unless you pick up a club draw.

As played I think this is tough. I really kinda think you're mostly either beat or splitting when he bets turn: AK,AQ,AA,QQ. KK,JJ,TT, and most other hands I woulda thought would check behind on turn. I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I shove turn he folds a lot of hands that I beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say anything about shoving turn. I said if you 4bet pre-flop being OOP doesn't matter too much because the pot will be about equal to your stack. Therefore you would then get it all-in if you flop a pair of A's or K's and fold anything else besides a club draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

C/f a 4bet is so sick..

[corsakh]

I am new to all this 3bet light business so I find myself stuck in this kind of situations.

[EMc]

cor,

Just cause its a higher limit doesnt mean he is 3 balling you light. He isnt doing it light unless you have a reason to believe he is.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd 4bet pre. It doesn't matter so much about position if he calls because the pot will be about equal to your stack....so if you hit a K or A go all-in and if you don't check fold....unless you pick up a club draw.

As played I think this is tough. I really kinda think you're mostly either beat or splitting when he bets turn: AK,AQ,AA,QQ. KK,JJ,TT, and most other hands I woulda thought would check behind on turn. I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I shove turn he folds a lot of hands that I beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say anything about shoving turn. I said if you 4bet pre-flop being OOP doesn't matter too much because the pot will be about equal to your stack. Therefore you would then get it all-in if you flop a pair of A's or K's and fold anything else besides a club draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

C/f a 4bet is so sick..

[/ QUOTE ]

You 4bet to like 21 or so.....If he shoves pre-flop you call ~30 for a pot ~70......He'll probably fold AK and you may fold out some or all of QQ-88. If he calls you he's almost definitely got a pair so you just check fold if you don't improve in some way on the flop.

[corsakh]

Thnkx perhaps you are right.

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
cor,

Just cause its a higher limit doesnt mean he is 3 balling you light. He isnt doing it light unless you have a reason to believe he is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont know.. When I see a regular with this stats reraising a LP from the button, thats what I think /images/graemlins/wink.gif Especially when he shows me Kh Jh /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
Thnkx perhaps you are right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me?



[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
cor,

Just cause its a higher limit doesnt mean he is 3 balling you light. He isnt doing it light unless you have a reason to believe he is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont know.. When I see a regular with this stats reraising a LP from the button, thats what I think /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that.

[corsakh]

You /images/graemlins/wink.gif