50nl Folding JJ on xJQQA board

[ShipitFMA]

only 20 hands with villan, he was very lose passive, after the turn i could not put him on a hand other than AQ or AA


Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $49.00
BB: $54.51
UTG: $50.87
Hero (CO): $55.33
BTN: $78.16

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/heart.gif Jhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (5 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2.00</font>, Hero calls $2.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 7http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif Jhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, UTG calls $3.00

Turn: ($10.75) 7http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif Jhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Qhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10.00</font>, UTG calls $10.00

River: ($30.75) 7http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif Jhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Qhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets all-in for $35.87</font>, Hero folds????

[Jaqrabbit]

I don't think there's any way I can fold a boat here. This could be a straight, a smaller boat, trips, two pair, top pair, a cold bluff on a scary board...

Looking at the flop, if he's got AQ, does he really check TPTK here? If he's got AA, he's got an overpair. I just don't see the check/call after a PFR out of either of those hands. QQ might slow play the set like this, but that's the only one of the hands that beat you that makes sense here.

Looking at this, it looks a lot like KT drawing to a straight, and making it on the river. If it's quads, or the better boats, I lose my stack here but I definitely call it.

[ShipitFMA]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there's any way I can fold a boat here. This could be a straight, a smaller boat, trips, two pair, top pair, a cold bluff on a scary board...

Looking at the flop, if he's got AQ, does he really check TPTK here? If he's got AA, he's got an overpair. I just don't see the check/call after a PFR out of either of those hands. QQ might slow play the set like this, but that's the only one of the hands that beat you that makes sense here.

Looking at this, it looks a lot like KT drawing to a straight, and making it on the river. If it's quads, or the better boats, I lose my stack here but I definitely call it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking this, but i dont think villians call the turn bet with K10. I think a very large portion of the time its AA KK or AQ...

I felt sick when that river came out, but after the turn call i found it very very hard to put him on anything else

[paulnic]

i think villain would reraise AA on this scary board also. AQ is possible i suppose... i dont see him pushing here without a q unless he has AA, so i think the only hand your beating here is KQ and your losing to AA, QQ, AQ, so i think it is a fold sadly yes...

[TheRenaissance]

Preflop sucks; 3b 100%.
Flop/turn is fine.
River is tough.
Could be a horribly misplayed AK from villain, possibly KQ, or a deranged bluff, but I think you are beat quite a lot. I'd still probably close my eyes and call.

[ShipitFMA]

paulnic - That was my exact reasoning, i figure he has boated up more than he has air, ak etc.


TheRenaissance - lol, i was considering going to the close eyed call, but i just cant help but think that river overbets are generally the nuts or that close to it

Just could not bring myself to do it (call that is)


edit: oh and about PF i find alot of the time these utg raises from guys who limp / minraise consistantly are generally a big hand...Probably scared poker on my behalf but i kind of felt safer playing JJ for set value

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
paulnic - That was my exact reasoning, i figure he has boated up more than he has air, ak etc.


TheRenaissance - lol, i was considering going to the close eyed call, but i just cant help but think that river overbets are generally the nuts or that close to it

Just could not bring myself to do it (call that is)

[/ QUOTE ]

Good that you trust your reads like that. I wouldnt loose much sleep over it. This is so close EV-wise that it wont affect your winrate much anyways.

[ShipitFMA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
paulnic - That was my exact reasoning, i figure he has boated up more than he has air, ak etc.


TheRenaissance - lol, i was considering going to the close eyed call, but i just cant help but think that river overbets are generally the nuts or that close to it

Just could not bring myself to do it (call that is)

[/ QUOTE ]

Good that you trust your reads like that. I wouldnt loose much sleep over it. This is so close EV-wise that it wont affect your winrate much anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]


Awww...that being said, i said "folding JJ" and being the gentlemen that he is showed:

big_stevie1 shows [ A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif ]a full house, Queens full of Aces.

[corsakh]

I consider spots like this variance /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
paulnic - That was my exact reasoning, i figure he has boated up more than he has air, ak etc.


TheRenaissance - lol, i was considering going to the close eyed call, but i just cant help but think that river overbets are generally the nuts or that close to it

Just could not bring myself to do it (call that is)

[/ QUOTE ]

Good that you trust your reads like that. I wouldnt loose much sleep over it. This is so close EV-wise that it wont affect your winrate much anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]


Awww...that being said, i said "folding JJ" and being the gentlemen that he is showed:

big_stevie1 shows [ A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif ]a full house, Queens full of Aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

hahaha, nh

[ShipitFMA]

[ QUOTE ]
I consider spots like this variance /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


I'd chalk it up as that if he shoved turn and caught the A on the river, but i felt dirty getting most of my money in behind

[paulnic]

i dont think poor players can make lay downs like that. a poor player thinks "i have a full house, that is a really rare hand u only get those ever few hundread hands, so i have to call" where as a reasoanbly good player will look at his hand and work out what it is beating based on his opponents play. this is a prime example of that imo.

PS please dont make me look like a fool now by showing that he actually had pocket 10 10's lol

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I consider spots like this variance /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


I'd chalk it up as that if he shoved turn and caught the A on the river, but i felt dirty getting most of my money in behind

[/ QUOTE ]

We both know that he stacks off here with KQ, so him catching an ace is just variance. He may also have KQ or a straight here and think in the lines of "No way I am folding this on the river, but c/c is spew because his calling calling range must be bigger than his betting range. However, if I bet large I have a chance to fold out the split".

[rodders133]

just a note on the close eyes call. I tend to press the call button and run into the garden for a ciggy, contemplating what I have just done and wondering wether im coming back to a double stack or zero. Try it. ps i call

[Jouster777]

Hmmmm...
You beat 77, KQ, KT = 15 combos with KT discounted 75%
You lose to AQ, AA, QQ = 10 combos

Even if you throw out KT you still have 11 vs. 10 combos...I think you have to call here.

[kamel]

I don't think you can fold this river, unless you have seen him only betting with the nuts, but just 20 hands are not enough to justify it. He could any kind of a queen here, some Top-Pairs (e.g. AJ), 77, and the hand that came first into my mind ist KT here. Of course, if he's really passive, you might be often beat by AQ or AA or QJ, but you also get nearly 1:2 Odds, so you only need to be ahead in perhaps 35%, and I guess, you will.

BTW, I'd prefer a 3bet preflop, because it gives you much more information and easier decisions and gets it headsup and in position.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmmm...
You beat 77, KQ, KT = 15 combos with KT discounted 75%
You lose to AQ, AA, QQ = 10 combos

Even if you throw out KT you still have 11 vs. 10 combos...I think you have to call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'm still leaning towards a call despite the results.
But it is a nasty spot.

[ShipitFMA]

I really dont think alot of the hands being listed call a full PSB on the turn, i find most of these players giveup with AK AJ and AT on a board like this after the turn bet. I guess some players may call KT and T9 in this spot but its very rare.

Given the turn call, i could not put him on any other hand

[corsakh]

Look, bottom line is, if you base your fold on a read / experience with villain - the fold is totally fine. If you do this against an unknown or someone whos stats you datamined - its gross.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
Look, bottom line is, if you base your fold on a read / experience with villain - the fold is totally fine. If you do this against an unknown or someone whos stats you datamined - its gross.

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed...and that read must include villain not doing this with KQ here because if we ONLY consider 77/KQ...its a call.

[Kasane]

I can't fold this ever with only 20 hands of experience with someone. Their line is so odd for anything that beats your hand. KT fits as well as AA (and way better than AQ) -- and there are a lot more KT hands than AA and QQ. Whatever they have, they played it badly unless you've got some maniac or nutball image that we don't know about.

Despite villain showing AQ, I think this is a bad fold.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the turn call, i could not put him on any other hand

[/ QUOTE ]

77/KQ are just as likely.

[iwa]

I'm not folding this river, ever. I'm 3-betting preflop always.