passive fish fights back

[Nogatsira]

73.1/0.0/0.58 over 115 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($14.80)
Hero ($16.10)
SB ($4.80)
BB ($9.45)
UTG ($32.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls $0.10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $0.40.

Flop: ($1.15) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, Hero ?

[JavaNut]

I think that you are behind. Either that or he just grew a spine. What is more likely? It does not seem like he would ever tilt in this fashion. AF of 0.58 could be the times he hit very big monsters.

He would have AA, 66 or 44. Don't think he has A6 or A4. AK does not 'fit' his personality. Most likely AA. With KK he would just call on the flop.

EDIT: meaning that you really do not have outs worth counting and should fold.

[tms]

Playing 73% of hands with an AF of .6 isn't passive. Not sure what I'd do in this spot, depends on how I'd been playing/table dynamics. This is Ax more than likely and I'm prob not folding. Try and get a cheap showdown.

[saucyspade19]

I'd be surprised to see AA here, I can't imagine top set reraising on that flop. You could very possibly have AJ or AT dominated. i'd prob call and see what he does on the turn - because he is passive he probably won't go huge on the turn and you have position.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that you are behind. Either that or he just grew a spine. What is more likely? It does not seem like he would ever tilt in this fashion. AF of 0.58 could be the times he hit very big monsters.

He would have AA, 66 or 44. Don't think he has A6 or A4. AK does not 'fit' his personality. Most likely AA. With KK he would just call on the flop.

EDIT: meaning that you really do not have outs worth counting and should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree this is a fold...passive villain got a big stack by seeing a lot of flops and getting paid off. He check raises on an almost drawless board - unless you've seen him do this before the action is out of character for the stats. Chances he is making a play or overplaying a weaker A are slim.

I think A6 and A4 are solidly in his range as are 44 and 66. AA less so.

[paulnic]

this is a fold imo. AQ is not really that great here against his check raise range and if he is ultra passive then i dont like our chances

[ocdscale]

73/x/0.58 isn't ultra passive post flop.
He raises roughly the same range of hands post flop as someone who is 18/x/2.35

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
73/x/0.58 isn't ultra passive post flop.
He raises roughly the same range of hands post flop as someone who is 18/x/2.35

[/ QUOTE ]
The point that this player isn't all that passive has been made twice now in this thread and while that may be true it is still likely he continues to be quite passive postflop and the reasoning given may oversimplify the issue somewhat.

Does he continue his preflop pattern postflop?
Preflop he does not raise even his most premium hands (as far as we can tell from the limited sample). We need some read to tell us about this but usually the 2 go together and he will tend to remain passive in the post flop setting.

Just because 73*.58=18*2.35 does not mean these two players have similar aggression. PAF is a ratio of betting/raising to calling so you can get to those numbers a lot of different ways. WTSD% or aggression frequency are key additonal stats here.

The possible ranges for a 73/x/.58 vs. an 18/x/2.35 are very different. Its very credible that the 73% VPIP player has A6 or A4 here whereas that is unlikely for the 18% VPIP in this situation.

The c/r on the flop is likely very out of the ordinary for the player described originally...though we need more of a read to be sure. When a player does something extreme (for him) its likely to be a big hand or he's making a play. Given the limited read this is far more likely to be a big hand.

[tms]

[ QUOTE ]
The possible ranges for a 73/x/.58 vs. an 18/x/2.35 are very different. Its very credible that the 73% VPIP player has A6 or A4 here whereas that is unlikely for the 18% VPIP in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is that their raising ranges postflop are similar so we cannot always assume that "Oh this has to be AA or the nutz! Insta fold!"

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
The point is that their raising ranges postflop are similar so we cannot always assume that "Oh this has to be AA or the nutz! Insta fold!"

[/ QUOTE ]NO, my point is their raising ranges postflop do not have to be similar and usually aren't.

[JavaNut]

I agree with posters saying that we need to know more about our villain, the stats do not say it all. But I simply cannot see him with 0! preflop raises being at all aggressive postflop with anything but the nuts.

If you count A6 or A4 in his range for the raise, we are still way behind, we need a Q or runner-runner pair, or if he has A4 also a 6 to win. Are we going to call a $5 bet on the turn when a 7 comes? No. Even if a Q comes we still have reverse implied if we are up against AA. So even if we think we have outs, counting in the reverse implied make this so bad, I would give this up.

EDIT: a passive player suddenly c/r? How come he does not raise preflop, but he knows how to c/r? This is so out of character, that I think he does so on purpose. He has found a way of milking by limping in preflop and c/r people for value who don't think he can have anything playing like that.

[Joost1982]

I find this post very interesting. On the limits I play (25NL) I would not fold here. A lot of villains think zoooomg I've hit my ace!!! Check raise!! Or something like that.

But...

As some of you suggest, you should fold here, because the villain does something that is not in line with what he normally does. Now my question; is this a general tell? When villains behave different than you would expect, they have a big hand?

Just a (stupid?) question from a beginner...