Do you like this push? Nearly 550bb pot

[stunna954]

I figured I was up against trips and was figuring/hoping guy behind would call. I've been thinking about this hand a lot though and wondering how others would play it and if you feel its correct to push. Obviously if I know guy behind is calling it is but I just wanted to get opinions on this hand and how others feel is best to play it.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $46.90
BB: $62.80
UTG: $105.55
MP: $20.00
Hero (CO): $107.25
BTN: $147.65

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, BTN calls $2.00, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $11.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $60.80</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $105.25</font>, BTN calls $94.25

Turn: ($277.55) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 Players - 2 All-In)

River: ($277.55) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $277.55 ($3 Rake)

BB had A/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$62.80)
BTN had 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (a flush, King high) and LOST (-$107.25)
Hero had 9/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif (a flush, King high) and WON (+$167.30)

[roll]

I play this the same way.

[deflY]

bet a little more on the flop($5.5-6). rest is standard

[shoxbb6]

Don't include results w/ the hand.
This is standard, you have huge amounts of equity here.

[Xanta]

Once the BB pushes, we no longer have any fold equity (Duh). Since our hand is such a strong drawing hand, wouldn't it be in our best interest to have the pot 3way if possible? Just as an example, our equity versus both hands is 42.5%, and we only need to be 33.3% in the main pot to breakeven. (The equity in the side pot if we shove and get called is gonna be pretty close to 50% with BTN's calling range of sets, two pairs, overpairs) If we shove and fold out BTN, our equity versus BB is 56.8%, only 6.8% over breakeven. Not to mention that TPTK is around the bottom of BB's shoving range there.

I think that from an equity standpoint it's clear that it's in our best interest to keep BTN in the hand, but just calling and then bricking the turn leaves us in a real weird spot with another buyin behind. I think this hand is a little more interesting than you guys are letting on.

[stunna954]

[ QUOTE ]
Once the BB pushes, we no longer have any fold equity (Duh). Since our hand is such a strong drawing hand, wouldn't it be in our best interest to have the pot 3way if possible? Just as an example, our equity versus both hands is 42.5%, and we only need to be 33.3% in the main pot to breakeven. (The equity in the side pot if we shove and get called is gonna be pretty close to 50% with BTN's calling range of sets, two pairs, overpairs) If we shove and fold out BTN, our equity versus BB is 56.8%, only 6.8% over breakeven. Not to mention that TPTK is around the bottom of BB's shoving range there.

I think that from an equity standpoint it's clear that it's in our best interest to keep BTN in the hand, but just calling and then bricking the turn leaves us in a real weird spot with another buyin behind. I think this hand is a little more interesting than you guys are letting on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't see any real hands he'd be willing to call the initial raise and my cold call with that he wouldn't call my push with. Plus if a flush hits on the turn he could possibly get away from his hand. I think calling is wrong.

Sorry for posting results in my op.

[Capone]

very standard, you have so many outs.

[HBomb]

Whose the idiot shoving with AQ in that spot with just TPTK? lol is he retarded or what?

[Capone]

lmao i know to a bet and raise...donk

[corsakh]

Easy fold to a 3bet.

In this particular hand, you were lucky that the BB was ready to stack off on AQ. Usually its not the case and while one of the villains has a set, the other one has another flush draw. This effectively reduces your outs to 13. Now its fair to assume that with T high, you are dominated by a higher flush and you only have clean 6 outs. Being against a potential full house, it leaves us with only 4. Man, you are in a lot of trouble /images/graemlins/laugh.gif You dont really have much more than 15-20% equity here. Again, just lucky that BB had AQ no clubs.

Small combo draws are very deceiving multiway /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Capone]

Its not an easy fold, we have a 19 out draw :|.

Any remaning club, any 7 any jack.

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
Its not an easy fold, we have a 19 out draw :|.

Any remaning club, any 7 any jack.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offence, but if you are missing on math, at least read the post.

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
Its not an easy fold, we have a 19 out draw :|.

Any remaning club, any 7 any jack.

[/ QUOTE ]


19 out????

And this was a BEST case hand we could be up against ...Combo draws derive much of there value from Fold Equity and when WE GET CALLED we are either coin flipping or only slightly behind equity wise...In this hand we have NO FE and more often then not with this action we will be facing either a set,two pair or even a BIGGER DRAW...Easy fold no easy call no either it is most likely over the long run pretty EV neutel to slightly -EV...

PS did not to stove to calculate Equity to account for money in the pot..Point was to show that CALLING an AI is not the OBV standard play with a combo non-nut draw...

[CowsFTW]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Its not an easy fold, we have a 19 out draw :|.

Any remaning club, any 7 any jack.

[/ QUOTE ]
Combo draws derive much of there value from Fold Equity and when WE GET CALLED we are either coin flipping or only slightly behind equity wise...

[/ QUOTE ]

And with the dead money this makes it +EV?

OP, I like it.

[iwa]

Played perfectly. You have good equity against all hands, and there is enough in the pot for you to push here after the initial pusher gets allin.

[terencetsao]

perfect

[stunna954]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold to a 3bet.

In this particular hand, you were lucky that the BB was ready to stack off on AQ. Usually its not the case and while one of the villains has a set, the other one has another flush draw. This effectively reduces your outs to 13. Now its fair to assume that with T high, you are dominated by a higher flush and you only have clean 6 outs. Being against a potential full house, it leaves us with only 4. Man, you are in a lot of trouble /images/graemlins/laugh.gif You dont really have much more than 15-20% equity here. Again, just lucky that BB had AQ no clubs.

Small combo draws are very deceiving multiway /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I was thinking about this hand a lot and wanted opinions.

The more I think about it I think it's very rare that the 3 bet pusher has a flush draw in this situation so the only flush draw we need to be worried about is they guy behind, and that's why I think it's correct to push. We'll most likely fold out a better flush draw unless he feels like really gambling when it seems like he'd be up against a set.

[Jouster777]

I don't think BB makes this play with the NFD and BTN doesn't have odds to call it with the FD so I think the following is a decent range. Getting it in here is good...and having it multiway is best but I agree with whoever said that BTN isn't calling a our call but not calling a push except maybe with a FD...so push is better.

Board: Qc 6c 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.713% 26.16% 01.55% 24571 1455.00 { 88, 66, AQs, 86s, 7c5c }
Hand 1: 27.713% 26.16% 01.55% 24571 1455.00 { 88, 66, AQs, 86s, 7c5c }
Hand 2: 44.574% 44.57% 00.00% 41860 0.00 { Tc9c }

(AQs used just to discount AQ)

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold to a 3bet.

In this particular hand, you were lucky that the BB was ready to stack off on AQ. Usually its not the case and while one of the villains has a set, the other one has another flush draw. This effectively reduces your outs to 13. Now its fair to assume that with T high, you are dominated by a higher flush and you only have clean 6 outs. Being against a potential full house, it leaves us with only 4. Man, you are in a lot of trouble /images/graemlins/laugh.gif You dont really have much more than 15-20% equity here. Again, just lucky that BB had AQ no clubs.

Small combo draws are very deceiving multiway /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I was thinking about this hand a lot and wanted opinions.

The more I think about it I think it's very rare that the 3 bet pusher has a flush draw in this situation so the only flush draw we need to be worried about is they guy behind, and that's why I think it's correct to push. We'll most likely fold out a better flush draw unless he feels like really gambling when it seems like he'd be up against a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

With so much money in the pot a call from a nut flush draw with some sort of support outs is actually justified. And don't kid yourself, better flushes are not folding /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

It really is a basic multiway flop fold based on your equity estimation. I don't understand what the discussion is about. Perhaps because some people seriously believe that an OES + FD has 19 outs /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[stunna954]

[/ QUOTE ]
With so much money in the pot a call from a nut flush draw with some sort of support outs is actually justified.

[/ QUOTE ]

What supporting outs could a nut flush draw have here?



[/ QUOTE ]And don't kid yourself, better flushes are not folding /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO I think most players sitting with 300bb stacks aren't calling here with just flush draws. But for the few times they do aren't we justified by the few the other times we're not up against a better flush draw like this case?

[corsakh]

1) Ac8c, AcKc
2) I really dont want to get deep into this argument, but generally if you bet on villains ability to lay down a good hand, you loose. A nut flush draw with so much money in the pot qualifies as a very good hand by most villains.

[stunna954]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Ac8c, AcKc
2) I really dont want to get deep into this argument, but generally if you bet on villains ability to lay down a good hand, you loose. A nut flush draw with so much money in the pot qualifies as a very good hand by most villains.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree I don't want to continually go back and forth here so I'll let this be my last remark.

Your ability to say AKs and A8s have supporting outs is based on the assumption that BB still has AQ and button now has a flush draw instead of a set, unless you're saying runner runner our supporting outs. Had I not posted results would you honestly think either of those hands had any supporting outs? 99% of the time some one in this hand has a set so I don't really follow the supporting outs logic unless you're taking about runner runner.

In regards to question 2 isn't that exactly what fold equity is and why we run equity calculations? We're betting that villain is going to lay down his hand a certain amount of times for us to make a particular play profitable. He may only lay it down a low percentage of the time but that doesn't make it like you said a loosing play, it could still very well be +EV.

standart, nh

[corsakh]

Mm.. I dont understand your statement about supporting outs, but the fact that you propose me being result is very promising /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Anyway... When I see this sort of action on this sort of board, my immediate reaction is put one of the villains on a set/two pair and another one on a high flush draw, at very least K high.

The only hands that generate action on this board are sets, two pairs, flush draws, TPTK and overs. Overs and TPTK are the only hands you are ahead of, they are also least likely to call a push. However I hardly see a hand that is ahead of you that folds to your push. So you FE is effectively zero, and hands that you may fold, you dont really want to be folding.

Now, against two other players with a flush draw + a set your drawing effectively dead, and this will be a huge amount of time. With $6 invested, I dont see a reason to get involved and get out of this as quick as I can. Not like someone who raised a preflop raisor into another player is going to fold to a two way push, not in 50NL.

And at last, just a simple situation from one of my sessions.

Hero raises UTG with A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Villain with J/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif calls OTB. Blinds fold.

Flop comes K/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Whats your immediate judgment who is ahead on this flop and by how much.

[monkover]

i agree with corsakh here. I don´t think we have a lot of equity and when i read the first couple of posts i thought i was in the [censored] twilight zone... everbody thinking we have 19 outs is just insane!
btw corsakh are you stoned or why is there is smiley in like every second sentece /images/graemlins/wink.gif