25NL - Value Bet This River?

[calmB4storm]

<font color="blue">Villain seemed like a decent TAG from what I could tell.

I think I'm ahead of his range here, but since the pot is so big already, I wanted to make sure I didn't get pushed off by a raise.</font>

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.10/$0.25 Blinds
5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

Hero (SB): $34.25
BB: $24.65
UTG: $68.45
CO: $23.20
BTN: $29.80

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $0.50</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.75</font>, UTG calls $2.75

Turn: ($9.75) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6.00</font>, UTG calls $6.00

River: ($21.75) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
Hero ???

Pot Size: $21.75 ($1.05 Rake)

[jkkkk]

checking is fine, not because you are afraid to call a raise, because you do not get called &gt;50% of the time by worse hands, also, it gives him a chance to bluff his missed draws.

[relativity_x]

by not betting here, you get set up for a big bluff.

With that said, we need to figure out what villain is minraising utg. I'd guess some PP, maybe some suited connectors, maybe a weak ace? Really need some stats to know. If he's calling this to the river, I'd put him on a busted FD, 88/99/77, maybe a9/a8 type of hand that we want value from. We're losing to a3,a4,a6,at,57s,43s,ak,aq. Of these hands, we don't think he plays any of the hands we beat that often unless he is super passive.

With that said, I think we have to value bet here. I like 10ish.

[relativity_x]

you make a good point about checking to induce a bluff, but this guy seems really passive. I think he would check behind on a missed draw and on hands that he would call another bet with. To extract value here, I think we need to bet.

[relativity_x]

also, omit all results from future posts. It takes credit out of responses, so you should have left it as

[calmB4storm]

[ QUOTE ]
also, omit all results from future posts. It takes credit out of responses, so you should have left it as

River: ($21.75) 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
Hero ?????

[/ QUOTE ]
Got it!