NL10 - Go broke with overpair on this board?

[microDonk]

One thing that I have noticed a lot of people talk about in this forum is not going broke with one pair readless. Obviously this idea can be taken a bit too far, but I have been trying to find a few folds lately as it seems I have been running overpairs into sets/straights quite often. Is this a good fold readless (more or less) or am I seeing monsters in the closet at this point?


Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $6.50
BB: $20.15
Hero (UTG): $10.00
BTN: $28.25

Reads: <font color="blue">Villian is running about 12/3/oo after 40 hands, most from a previous session. Don't have any other information on him, but he is obviously pretty tight pre-flop.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Js.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Jc.gif (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, BTN calls $0.40, SB folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/2h.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/5s.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/9c.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $0.70</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $19.75</font>, Hero folds

Pot Size: $24.00 ($0.35 Rake)

[ZingZhang]

no draws, villain is very tight/nitty over v. small but still generally applicable sample, looks like a set, no?

[Capone]

10nl go broke yea.

[WHITEBOYAEHS]

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10nl go broke yea.

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[ACChan]

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10nl go broke yea.

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[shoxbb6]

I fold, even though its a ridiculously small sample size, thats really, really tight and indicates that villain doesn't get out of line much. This is a set a high % of the time.

[Buffalo Wings]

It's an agonizing fold but probably the correct play. Unless villan has A9s or 1010 you're most likely in bad shape. Probably hit his set as he didn't reraise pf.

[gimmetheloot]

its 40 hands...call and make a note.

[microDonk]

It appears as though the feelings on this hand are split, and these have been the exact kind of hands I have been struggling with the most. It seems that when I fold, I can't shake the feeling that I laid down the best hand. It seems that when I call, I am looking at a set a large % of the time.

In general, what do you guys look at when making a decision like this? Against a player with stats this tight (albeit over a small sample size) I really felt like this was a fold. At this level is it really just better to call and note if he had a set?

[ev_slave]

[ QUOTE ]
It appears as though the feelings on this hand are split, and these have been the exact kind of hands I have been struggling with the most. It seems that when I fold, I can't shake the feeling that I laid down the best hand. It seems that when I call, I am looking at a set a large % of the time.

In general, what do you guys look at when making a decision like this? Against a player with stats this tight (albeit over a small sample size) I really felt like this was a fold. At this level is it really just better to call and note if he had a set?

[/ QUOTE ]

My general experience with 10NL has been that people bluff less often than you'd expect. With most players big bets mean solid hands since a very commen mistake at this level is the tendency to have villains look you up when they think you're making a play. So aggressive players get paid a lot of money by overbetting their strong hands. There are habitual bluffers also, but they don't know when NOT to bluff, and so just watching their action for a few orbits tells you who they are. This is all on FTP, btw, and so I don't know how PS compares to it.

Given how tight this guy is, he EASILY could have called PF to set-mine, and the flop is in his range. I would think he has it here, because if it's an advanced bluff it requires that 1) you have been paying close attention, 2) you have the knowledge to realize the mid PP makes up a decent amount of his range given his action, and 3) have the discipline to fold. I don't think anyone plays any villain in 10NL with those assumptions.

Also, thinking about how the hand played out, a (probable) nit donk-betting with a sub-premium hand and then 3-betting when he encouters resistence? I don't buy it.

I'd probably time out thinking on it, but I think fold wins in my head... who knows which button I actually click though.