QQ wierd flop spot against standard TAG

[tripdeuces]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($13.15)
MP ($37.90)
Hero ($59.65)
Button ($25.50)
SB ($27.30)
BB ($36.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/heart.gif.
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.25, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $1.25</font>, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, [color=#CC3333]SB raises to $3.5</font>, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $2.25.

Flop: ($7.50) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/heart.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
SB checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets $4</font>, [color=#CC3333]SB raises to $12</font>, Hero?

[Ramana]

We need stats.

If it's a standard TAG, he's a bit less likely to 3-bet pf w TT. That makes our equity sink to 35/65 against JJ+. It's a snapcall against a donk, where we usually have at least 50/50, but in this case it's much more difficult. Impossible to decide without reads and stats.

Also, converter messed up, please reconvert to 2+2 format.

[Nick C]

It's not really such a weird spot. Villain said he had a strong hand when he 3-bet from the SB, and now on the flop he's saying he's still got a strong hand.

Now, whether he's telling the truth or not is a different question (as is the question of whether or not that strong hand beats yours even if he is telling the truth), but I think I would believe him and fold. I do think the decision is close, though.

By the way, unlike the first respondent, I think I like your chances a little bit better against a TAG than against a donk, but I suppose it depends on what kind of donk we're talking about. But 3-bets at NL25 tend to be very strong hands, and although we are beating AK, AK doesn't appear to be what Villain has.

Edit: Er, okay, I suppose the checkraise aspect of the hand does make the situation a little weird. (For some reason, I forgot that Villain was OOP and thought you had led into him.) He could be trying hard to get rid of you with AK, but I think it's more likely that he has AA or flopped a set.

Some TAGs, like donks, can't resist the urge to check the flop when they catch a set, even if they would c-bet any other hand. And what I just said is much more true in limit than in NL, but I still think you're in trouble here, and I'm not so sure anymore that the decision is close.

[shadypac]

I also think you see AA-KK here alot. Im not worried about a set as much. Really tough spot for me though and i hate letting hands like this go but if I had to guess you are behind. Any info on this player as far as how often he leads flops, have you seen him C/R before..with what, etc....

[Waingro]

This is a really easy fold, you see AA and KK a lot. People love to get tricky in spots like this.

[mattgoody]

[ QUOTE ]
We need stats.

If it's a standard TAG, he's a bit less likely to 3-bet pf w TT. That makes our equity sink to 35/65 against JJ+. It's a snapcall against a donk, where we usually have at least 50/50, but in this case it's much more difficult. Impossible to decide without reads and stats.

Also, converter messed up, please reconvert to 2+2 format.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its ridiculous to say you cant try to make a decision without stats... You're not always going to have stats on a player. That said, i think this is a fold because of the check raise. I give him credit for a really strong hand like 99, KK, AA here, along with one you beat: AK. I think TT and JJ lead the flop here.

[tripdeuces]

Well i couldn't find his stats. For some reason PT didn't import them. But my stats could be anywhere from 20/17 to 30/25 which is what makes this spot wierd because if he is a standard TAG (let's say 15/13) then he could just as easily be trying to keep me in line.