FD on coordinated flop 3way facing heavy action

[apunisher]

SB is 27/19/3 over 98 hands
CO is 73/20 over only about 15 hands

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $120.87
UTG+1: $136.45
CO: $28.01
Hero: $99.85
SB: $75.15
BB: $40.75

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3</font>, SB calls, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif ($10, 3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $8</font>, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises all-in $25.01</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $72.15</font>.
Hero.....folds??

Does anyone play this differently?

[Peter Harris]

I think it's a fold because *if* either of them is drawing to the flush, it has to be bigger; you don't have any other strong draws, you can't expect a pair to win and you have the possibility of a set boating up even if you catch the flush.

However, SB's play looks more like a set than a draw - smoothcalling the first raise, then when seeing the pot has hugified already, raising it up.

the action is wrong on the end- the final SB raise must be 64.15 as he'd put in $8 prior, so you're calling 40 more to win the 132 pot. Getting 3.28-1, If we could somehow rule out CO having the FD, then it's actually a closer call.

Let's stove, shall we? We don't have any real reads on CO, so let's say he's overlimped there with pocket pairs (so maybe he hit a set), maybe KT for top 2 pair, maybe a OESD like QJ and let's give him a A/images/graemlins/club.gifx/images/graemlins/club.gif flush draw for top FD. Why CO decided to check these to you is a mystery.

So, let's say on that flop with a c/r all in he has a set of 4s (rule out Ts/Qs) 45% of the time, KT 20%, the OESD 15% (as c/r all in is silly risky with gutshot), a higher flush draw with no pair (A/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/club.gif - this presupposes a hand like Q/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif which both outdraws you and overpairs you isn't present - giving you a better draw to your one pair) 15% of the time, and top pair 5% of the time, no club redraw. That seems like all possibilities for c/r all in and assumes villain won't do this with air. Big assumptions.

Meanwhile, let's assume SB, whose stats are relatively decent for 100 hands, will only play PF like this with pocket pairs below KK (he'd reraise KK/AA), sooted connectors, big sooted aces. So, on the flop, we can narrow his range playing this way to TT/44 about 70% of the time, give him Q/images/graemlins/club.gifJ/images/graemlins/club.gif for the higher FD+OESD 10% of the time, A/images/graemlins/club.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif for the higher FD+gutshot 10% also, and let's say a bonehead push with QJ no clubs for the OESD praying to hit but not a club /images/graemlins/laugh.gif 10%.

Stoving...
CO
44 45% 3 combos
KT 20% 1 combo
OESD 15% 1 combo
QcTc 15% 1 combo
TP 5% 1 combo

SB
TT/44 70% 6 combos total
QcJc 10% 1 combo
AcQc 10% 1 combo
QJ 10% 1 combo

Stove:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.690% 20.68% 00.01% 8964 4.00 { 7c6c }
Hand 1: 27.506% 26.43% 01.08% 11456 466.00 { 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, KhTh, QcTc, KhJs, QhJs }
Hand 2: 51.804% 50.73% 01.08% 21988 466.00 { TcTd, TcTh, TdTh, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, AcQc, QcJc, QdJh }


So yeah, with both players all in you need 4-1 to call with 20% equity. You are only getting 3.25ish-1, so it's close, but a fold.

Tweak my range just a fraction and the call gets closer! Or add in the pair+FD possibility and it gets worse lol.

PS loved UTG's limp-fold PF. What a dink.

[iwa]

I'm not sure all this analysis is needed. Calling with only a flush draw here would be an awful play. You're not even close to being pot commited and you are not even drawing to the nut flush. Not to mention some if not all of your outs should be discounted to bigger combo draws and sets.

[paulnic]

this is a fold yes. your up against a set of 10's or 4's imo and top 2 or a big flush\str8 draw.

[apunisher]

thanks that indeed what i was shown after i folded, CO had 44 and SB KT. Is my call of SBs shove bad, really what i was hoping was that CO had a marginal hand like KQ or QJ or something and would either fold or call too, giving me good odds to draw to the flush.