50nl, JJ on paired board

[danny8]

Cryptologic - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

Hero (SB): $51.40
BB: $46.25
UTG: $29.72
MP: $32.90
CO: $89.30
BTN: $79.15

Reads: <font color="blue">just joined the table... i've seen villain open limp twice though so im assuming hes not great</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO folds, BTN calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.75</font>, BB folds, MP calls $2.25, BTN folds

Flop: ($6.50) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4.50</font>, MP calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.50) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $4.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $25.00</font>


whats my plan on the turn? at the time i didnt really think about it, i just checked to see what he'd do. (i really need to think ahead and have a plan)

anyways... since he bet so small i decided if im calling and he shoves river for just less than a PSB im prolly calling, so decided just to raise ai.

anyways, how should i play the turn? do i need to be scared of a T? i figured QQ+ is unlikely since he limped pf.

all comments appreciated, thanks!

[LordBrun]

Ok, let me have a crack at this. I think it's safe to assume that villain isn't going to float the flop much. His likely holdings are QT+, 22-99 and maybe two overs. I think it is in your best interest to keep the pot small, especially against an unknown. His bet on the turn is weak, looks like a probing bet. My guesstimate is that he has a small to medium pocket pair. Your raise will drive out worse hands(thus missing out on some value there) and get called down by hands that beat you. Im not sure if you should bet or c/c the turn. The raise is probably your worst option on the turn.

Please take my advice with a grain of salt. Im trying to learn how to analyze hands /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[BevillTheDevil]

b/f turn FTW!! the c/r is pretty scary and if im villian im im probably thinkin you have Tx or a boat so i think you fold out alot of hands you beat w/ the c/r. Yea QQ+ is less likely w/ the limp but ppl still limp those hands. The board isnt very drawy so i would think the flop call is like 2 overcards or some weak PP or Tx. And most likely villian is only goin to raise the turn if we led again w/ Tx IMO and will call/fold w/ mid PP...so then you say well if he folds then why not check turn to keep him in the hand?? well it alows him to bluff at us but if we raise we fold out bluffs and it makes us look all passive like OOP which makes the hand tougher to play.

[sightless]

I bet turn in such spots, cant afford for him to take a free card

[whizzle]

bet the turn shut down if called and fold to a reraise... I'm interested what people here would do in this exact same spot when villian was a little bit more short stacked. let's say around 20. Because if we bet the turn in that spot we are committed

[danny8]

thanks for the replies! yea i wasnt thinking very clearly during the hand, villain has enough that i can b/f turn, which i agree is the best line here!

if villain only has $20 on the turn, i think just bet/calling is ok, id imagine he'll 'put us on ak' enough of the time for him to just shove his pps.

in the actual hand he had QQ :/, turns out he was a 45/1/3 player after 75hands

[Gelford]

Grunch.

Nah don't like it, whatever he might have that is not a T, you are folding out by that c/r ... just bet bet bet.

[infinite_loop]

Well the likelihood of whether or not he has a T depends on your read of how he plays pairs or flopped sets. This could be 88-55 quite often and certainly 33/22 enough. This is a pretty generic situation so reads are important. So your read is that he open limps garbage. There are a lot of garbage limp hands that contain a T but he probably also plays 88-55 that way. And if he's passive he might even play QQ/JJ that way because passives usually aren't very aggressive with hands they perceive as beatable.

Generic spot though, I probably don't check-raise for that much. I probably just call if I check that turn, and usually lead the turn for 3/4 there anyway.

[iwa]

I think this is a likely flop where people will float on you. It's unlikely your hand improved, and he can get away easy on the turn. You're getting stack by a 10 part of the time here as well. B/F turn for optimal results!