50NL: AA top set on a dry board, extraction

[BoozeHound]

I doubt I have 3 streets of value here, villain is closer to a TAG-fish than a donky IIRC. If villain has a weirdly played set/two pair I probably get it in anyway so I checked behind on turn and fired on river. Thoughts on extraction?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $57.30
UTG+1: $75.75
CO: $15.55
Hero: $68.90
SB: $50.25
BB: $23.65

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $2</font>, CO folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $6.75</font>, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: A/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($14.25, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($28.25, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($28.25, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $18</font>, UTG+1 folds.
Uncalled bets: $18 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $28.25

[greggg230]

I'd bet more on the flop. You're either going to get a lot of action on that flop or you're gonna get very little. Make it like $11-$12. Bet the turn, like 1/2-2/3 of pot. That's not a scare card and it's best to get the money in before a scare card does come out. If he liked his hand on the flop, he likes it on the turn. If he folds, he wasn't giving you action on the river probably.

[Shoe Lace]

I don't think there's much you can do here. He doesn't like his hand at all.

I'd bet $11-12 on the flop though. I'd also 1/2 pot the turn and pray he turned a set so when he shoves you can insta call faster than you've ever called anything in your entire life.

[Shoe Lace]

Wtf greg... you read my mind. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[greggg230]

'fess up, you just copied my post /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[BoozeHound]

greggg,
I would never c-bet 11-12 in a 3-bet pot here unless the board were something like J10x 2tone. If I have air on an ace high flop I want to bet closer to 7-9 to get the most odds on my c-bet. Do you bet 11-12 with air here?

This is extremely dry so I want them to peel lightly. If they have an ace/set I think they come after me on river and I can raise.

[Shoe Lace]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you bet 11-12 with air here?

[/ QUOTE ]

This situation should never came up. Or are you 3betting tag fish with SCs?

If you 3 bet him light preflop with something like 88, I'd check behind on the flop and re-eval the turn. If he checked again on the turn, I'd consider betting (assuming he has me beat but is capable of folding something like JJ if you think he thinks you're capable of checking AK/AQ on the flop).

[greggg230]

I'm not sure when I'm going to have "air" here if I 3-bet. I'm not 3-betting with KQ or something. I'm definitely betting $11 here with QQ but shutting down if called. At least at NL25, people call 3-bets with all kinds of dumb stuff and will fold to a c-bet on an A-high flop often enough to be profitable.

[BoozeHound]

Shoe,
Interesting point about me not having air here (except that that hands with showdown value become essentially air if I c-bet this flop ie 1010 - KK). However, I will certainly 3-bet tagfish with connectors at times, but it would totally depend on villain and whether I think I can push them out with a c-bet on most flops.

with 88, I would likely check behind flop, and maybe even turn. I don't think I ever give a tagfish credit for checking behind on flop with AK (the whole reason I would do it would be to get called by non-ace hands, or stack weaker aces).

[BoozeHound]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure when I'm going to have "air" here if I 3-bet. I'm not 3-betting with KQ or something. I'm definitely betting $11 here with QQ but shutting down if called. At least at NL25, people call 3-bets with all kinds of dumb stuff and will fold to a c-bet on an A-high flop often enough to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like c-betting a hand like QQ here, especially not $11 here, it mostly gets called with Aces and thus turns into a bluff. My standard c-bet in a 3-bet pot is 1/2-2/3 pot anyway depending on how wet the board is.

[greggg230]

C-bets are always bluffs, by definition. It's a value bet when you hit the flop. So, sure, you are only going to be called by aces, but you're going to get the wide variety of crap people might have to fold.

[BoozeHound]

[ QUOTE ]
C-bets are always bluffs, by definition. It's a value bet when you hit the flop. So, sure, you are only going to be called by aces, but you're going to get the wide variety of crap people might have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

but with QQ that's exactly what we do NOT want.

[greggg230]

why not? you win the pot if they fold

[Triggerle]

I think you can at least bet $9 or $9.50 if you are afraid that a bigger c-bet will be too different to your usual cbets. Most villians will not notice one single digit being much different than another single digit, especially if you vary your cbet sizes based on board texture.

If you have cbet over $10 before (because it was a wet board then) then I would go ahead and go for over $10 here, too. He won't be lured into calling with weak holdings often enough to make up for the lost value in the cases he has something.

[BoozeHound]

[ QUOTE ]
why not? you win the pot if they fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you lose value from smaller pocket pairs and other random crap. I likely have the best hand, so I want them to call with worse, not fold.

[monkover]

checking the turn imo is right. villain is more likely to call a bet on the river with a mediocre holding when turn is checked through rather than calling a turn b/c he prob is afraid you´ll bet the river again.

[greggg230]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why not? you win the pot if they fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you lose value from smaller pocket pairs and other random crap. I likely have the best hand, so I want them to call with worse, not fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's just tough luck, because you'll never get action out of any moderately good player holding JJ on an A high board in a 3-bet pot. A is an action killer in that situation. They're not going to call a 1/2 PSB or 3/4 PSB.

[Shoe Lace]

[ QUOTE ]
Because you lose value from smaller pocket pairs and other random crap. I likely have the best hand, so I want them to call with worse, not fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's really unlikely TTish hands will call you down. Think about it...

When you have a non-premium pair in a re-raised preflop pot, how often are you willing to start calling bets when you don't improve to a set or some miracle funky draw -- especially when it's A high?

Hopefully you answered "pretty much never". This villain is thinking the same. No way he's calling you down unimproved.

[BoozeHound]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Because you lose value from smaller pocket pairs and other random crap. I likely have the best hand, so I want them to call with worse, not fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's really unlikely TTish hands will call you down. Think about it...

When you have a non-premium pair in a re-raised preflop pot, how often are you willing to start calling bets when you don't improve to a set or some miracle funky draw -- especially when it's A high?

Hopefully you answered "pretty much never". This villain is thinking the same. No way he's calling you down unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thus why I checked the turn...

[BoozeHound]

Also, I meant to get to this a long time ago, what are thoughts on the river bet size?

[greggg230]

If he called your bet on the flop, he either has a decent ace or he's an idiot. In both cases, he'll probably call a turn bet. You're just missing value there, imo.

River bet looks fine.

[Shoe Lace]

[ QUOTE ]
Thus why I checked the turn...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but you have the supreme nuts here. If you held QQ and checked here what happens when he leads out on the river for either the pot or overbets AI?

Now you have no idea where you stand. Was he slow playing AA/AK, trying to make a move with TT-JJ, or did he have pocket 5s that just rivered a set? Then you start thinking "wtf, why didn't I bet the turn".

[BoozeHound]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thus why I checked the turn...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but you have the supreme nuts here. If you held QQ and checked here what happens when he leads out on the river for either the pot or overbets AI?

Now you have no idea where you stand. Was he slow playing AA/AK or did he have pocket 5s that just rivered a set? Then you start thinking "wtf, why didn't I bet the turn".

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting purely for information is terrible. If he overbets, I instafold against most villains, if he pots it then I've got some thinking to do but likely fold. The reality is villain is rarely going to put me to a difficult decision on the river, as he'll likely bet far less than the pot if he does decide to stab.

[greggg230]

well if i get called with QQ on an A-high flop im definitely checking the turn

[monkover]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thus why I checked the turn...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but you have the supreme nuts here. If you held QQ and checked here what happens when he leads out on the river for either the pot or overbets AI?

Now you have no idea where you stand. Was he slow playing AA/AK, trying to make a move with TT-JJ, or did he have pocket 5s that just rivered a set? Then you start thinking "wtf, why didn't I bet the turn".

[/ QUOTE ]

but wtf is the likelyhood of this? checking turn is the way to go here.

[Shoe Lace]

[ QUOTE ]
but wtf is the likelyhood of this? checking turn is the way to go here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Much more likely than the hand that actually took place.

I mean, how often do you flop a set of aces and by the turn there's a 0% chance of a flush and only 1 hand that has potential to beat you on the river (68) but given the 3bet preflop this hand is basically non-existant.

His hand is never going to get payed off unless villain has a set but he might get some value from KK/QQ if he bets the turn (if they don't believe he has an A).

This is the precise reason you need to bet the turn (if you checked the flop) if you held QQ instead of AA here (assuming villain check/called the flop and checked the turn). Much more often than not I'd imagine they will fold.

Maybe I'm just retarded though...

[We Major]

I tend to double barrel a lot against floaters so I like double barreling hands like this because people will play back and it also says that most of the time I double barrel I have a big hand.

[bozzer]

if he has a set, you will end up all in, so don't worry about building the pot vs a set.

you need to maximise value from the 8 combos of AK and AQ,and the 18 combos of KK-JJ he could have. So it's roughly 30% TP and 70% big pairs we are trying to maximise value from.

you can probably get 3 streets of value vs top pair. You can probably get 0-2 streets of value from the big pocket pairs. If you check the flop you'll most likely get 1 call from these hands and maybe two.

betting 3 streets:

&lt;if he has TP&gt; = $9 + $20 + $14 (or however you size your bets to get him ai) = $43

&lt;if he has BP&gt; = ~$10

&lt;3 streets&gt; = 0.3($43) + 0.7($10) = ~$20


checking the flop, then betting the turn and river:

&lt;if he has TP&gt; = $9 + $20 = $29

&lt;if he has BP&gt; $9 + $10 (estimating a 50% calling frequency if you bet $20 on the river) = $19

&lt;betting turn and river&gt; = 0.3($29) + 0.7($19) = ~$22


Hmm, so it looks quite close (I just made up the assumptions then followed through with the working). I guess this isn't one of those spots where the maths can suprise us with a clear answer, but it's something to think about.

[ciro bonano]

What's a tag-fish exactly?

If villain could fold AQ-like hands on the turn but will call a river bet when you check the turn, the 2nd figure becomes a bit better.

[C4LL4W4Y]

Grunch...I make it like $9-10 on the flop, and I bet the turn again. If he's floating/drawing he might peel another street off.

[Chomp]

Great post Boz (although I only understand about 2% of it, but I get the general idea).

Instinctivly, I thought check flop bet turn and bet river might have been better, and interesting to see the sums kinda back this up. It gives villain a chance to both catch up AND bluff at some point. Also, it's amazing how often a flop check is interpreted as "I missed".

[Daniel LeClaire]

I agree with Chomp. I would check flop here maybe 35% of the time. It's exactly what I would do with something like KK, JJ, or even AK. I would then bet the turn and river for value. I think OP line was fine, although I bet a little bigger on the flop.

Of course, betting the flop and turn is standard and should be done most of the time. I think it's kind of pointless to debate what is the 'correct' line since they all have value and you should mix it up to balance your strategy.

[matt85]

Bet $10, and check turn to induce river bluff esp if hes a TAG-fish.

As played, doesnt look like he likes his hand much so not much you can do really apart from maybe bet like $10 on river perhaps see if he looks you up with JJ or something.