50nl - QQ, tough turn decision

[wildzer0]

Villain is 16/10/3 over a few hundred hands. He has one major leak I've noticed, he'll play any pocket pair postflop like the absolute nuts (ie. 44 on a QsJsTs board)

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $29.50
BB: $53.75
UTG: $50.00
CO: $49.75
Hero (BTN): $49.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.00</font>, BB calls $4.00

Turn: ($12.25) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $9.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $27.00</font>, Hero...

[greggg230]

Unless you've seen him do tricky stuff like floating in the past, it's fold time.

[wildzer0]

As an aside, I love the Baluga Theorum as much as the next guy, but it's taken as absolute gospel in uNl too much.

[hoyasnaxa]

its borderline, very read dependent, but probably a fold. wut is baluga theorem

[Gelford]

yeah well .... it look more or less neutral, but in these spots I'm inclined to shove.

[wildzer0]

Hmm...I was really surprised to just notice that the villain in this hand is 2p2. I won't out him, but I'd love to get his input here.

[skiller3]

given 16/10/3 he probably doesn't have 2pair or a straight. That said, this looks very much like a set. Fold.

[fees]

fold 100% of the time here

[simonpoker]

seems like a set at best its a combo draw somethings nuts like 65 of diamonds.

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
fold 100% of the time here

[/ QUOTE ]

[catoandtonic]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm...I was really surprised to just notice that the villain in this hand is 2p2. I won't out him, but I'd love to get his input here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will bet villain f'd up real bad.

[wildzer0]

Well, let's break down his range.

T9, 45, 32 ways total, 0% equity
66,77,88,33, 12 ways total, 4.5% equity
22, 44, 55, 99, tt, jj, 36 ways total, 86% equity
qq, kk, aa, 13 ways total, 8% equity

He doesn't usually call preflop with the hands that make a straight, but if we go by straight hand possiblity %s, it makes up about 34% of his range, I would tend to adjust that downward to about 20% given prior action. Set hands make up 13% of that hand range, but he's certainly playing like a set, let's give that a reasonably high possiblity, say 40%. Non set pair hainds &lt; QQ make up 39% of the range, Knowing that he'll play these hands in this manor, I'm going to leave that right at 39%. That leaves QQ+, there are 13 ways total to make those hands, but very unlikely given prior action, so I'm pretty comfortable giving this a 1% possiblity.

So we'll say then that (.2 * 0) + (.4 * .045) + (.39 * .86) + (.01 * .08)

That leaves us with about 37% equity. I think we can safely assume 0 fold equity. So there'll be $64.25 once villain puts his remaining stack, and I have to put in 34.25 to continue. so we're getting 64.25:34.25 or 1.876:1 and we're 1.703 to win. So unless my math is borked (we'll give that a 50% probability /images/graemlins/smile.gif ) shoving is marginally +EV. Of course shifting the probability of a non-set pocket pair down slightly could easily move this to a fold.

[fees]

guys I wanna just give you a basic piece of information that will save you a TON of money and time..

when you are the preflop raiser, and you bet a small board, and then you bet again, the villians have a pretty good idea of what you have, the c/c flop, c/r turn at uNL is VERY VERY VERY often a set.. they are bluffing here or making this move with draws/1010orjj/air nearly enough at this level to ever make this profitable, you never call or raise here...

NOW if they are like spewtastic/on tilt/have a tendancy to do this crazy stuff constantly on bluffs/draws/etc.. then obviously shove, but readless or agaisnt a somewhat solid or passive player, you just can't continue here profitably