Is this a losing long term play?

[ValueKill]

Hand #42351895-15537 at Penfield (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 27/Jun/07 11:35:30

ValueKill is at seat 1 with $59.70.
dandell is at seat 2 with $124.50.
agsv is at seat 3 with $19.90.
FreedomII is at seat 4 with $34.15.
melodrama is at seat 5 with $48.55.
The button is at seat 3.

FreedomII posts the small blind of $.25.
melodrama posts the big blind of $.50.

ValueKill: 4d 5d
dandell: -- --
agsv: -- --
FreedomII: -- --
melodrama: -- --

Pre-flop:

ValueKill raises to $1.75. dandell re-raises to $6.
agsv folds. FreedomII folds. melodrama folds.
ValueKill calls.

Flop (board: 4h 3d 6s):

ValueKill checks. dandell bets $9.50. ValueKill
goes all-in for $53.70. dandell calls.

Turn (board: 4h 3d 6s 8s):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 4h 3d 6s 8s Th):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

ValueKill shows 4d 5d.
ValueKill has 4d 4h 6s 8s Th: a pair of fours.
dandell shows Ac As.
dandell has Ac As 6s 8s Th: a pair of aces.


Hand #42351895-15537 Summary:

$2 is raked from a pot of $120.15.
dandell wins $118.15 with a pair of aces.
----------------------------------------------------------------


I know villain has a strong hand here. Best case scenario I am probably looking at AJ. If he has AA on this flop it is still basically a coin flip with him slightly ahead of me by about 3 %. Is making this shove +EV long term? I feel like a good % of the time villains will have AJ or AK and sometimes may even call me all in with them thinking im moving with air. Thoughts on this anyone?

[relativity_x]

[ QUOTE ]
ValueKill raises to $1.75. dandell re-raises to $6.
agsv folds. FreedomII folds. melodrama folds.
ValueKill calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, I don't have a problem with mixing it up with sc from utg, but definitely fold to rr.

[ImprovinNewbie]

i dont usually raise with 54s in that spot, maybe once in a blue moon to mix up my play. then i dont call re-raises, then i dont c/r AI liek that. i IS a long term losing play me thinks..... exploit bigger edges not sligtly losing coinflips.

[greggg230]

Fold pre-flop, fold to raise pre-flop, fold to bet on the flop

Small suited connectors are no good out of position. You have 10 outs that aren't vulnerable to re-draw, and 3 outs that are.

[ValueKill]

Is calling the reraise terrible? It was a pretty small one

[ValueKill]

the question I am asking here is if its a long term losing play. It was close to even money on the flop even with the worst case scenario of him having AA. A lot of times here you will see villains with AK or AJ.

[bozzer]

apart from the open raise, which some players do, some players don't, everything else is pretty bad without any reads IMO.

[relativity_x]

are we being leveled?

[derosnec]

do you see why SCs need position?

[relativity_x]

the problem isn't with the open raise. His initial move was better than limping a PP utg. If you only raise AA utg, you become transparent. The problem is calling a rr.

[bozzer]

ok, i didn't your equity was so good on the flop. CRAI is good.

[ValueKill]

ok ... calling the reraise was bad.... aside from that.. is the flop shove +EV or - EV long term...

[greggg230]

How is a more than 3x re-raise small? What is a big re-raise?

Calling there, out of position, with 54s is just pure spew. You're getting only 10:1 on his effective stack, and you can't expect to get his entire stack one out of every ten times with 54s UTG. That's the most straightforward way of saying that this is a losing play.

[derosnec]

the open raise is a problem. we don't need to raise SCs utg to not be transparent (we raise 22, 33, etc). problem is there are 5 others to act, we get reraised X amount of times (so we have to dump it), and if we do get callers, extracting is gonna be a pain OOP, as well as being put into tough spots in multiway pots when do we have a flush.

[bozzer]

it's only 5 handed dero.

please change your avatar back...

[relativity_x]

I disagree, but this is a null point because it's a difference in philosophies. Both work.

[relativity_x]

There's no way he's being serious. This has to be a level.

[derosnec]

ok it's 5 handed, but generally.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no way he's being serious. This has to be a level.

[/ QUOTE ]

???

If you're referring to OP, it is more probable that he his asking a sincere question than levelling.

if you're referring to me,

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[ValueKill]

I am asking a sincere question and I still haven't gotten a good answer. ASIDE FROM CALLING THE RERAISE is the flop push +EV or -EV long term???????? I am 47% to win the hand from the flop, and that is agains the worst case scenario of AA. How many times do you see AJ, AQ, AK here? I am sure most of you 50 nl donks know that you see this a LOT. Also some super NITS will even fold a big PP here to me AI shove. So how can this not be long term +EV?

[bozzer]

YES THE FLOP PUSH IS PROBABLY +EV. I already said that when I said 'CRAI is good'. CRAI = check raise all in.

[da_fume]

No, you won't see those hands and you won't be folding out overpairs without strong reads.

Given that, the push is probably OK since you're getting better than 1:1 on your money. Although taken as a whole I think the hand is probably -EV.

[derosnec]

look, he reraised the utg raiser pf. it's a big pp. you have little to no FE. but you can easily do an equity calculation (see what % you win against range, take pot into account, and then see what % of the time he needs to fold (if he needs to fold at all) to make it +EV).

[bozzer]

<called by AA> = 0.48($120) - $53.70 = $+3.9

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
No, you won't see those hands and you won't be folding out overpairs without strong reads.

Given that, the push is probably OK since you're getting better than 1:1 on your money. Although taken as a whole I think the hand is probably -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice edit!!

[ama0330]

This has to be a joke, right? Are you all in on it?

[ValueKill]

how is this a joke?

[bozzer]

I belive ama has chosen a bad thread to level in.

[wslee00]

wtf? this thread should be pretty clear cut imo... the only truly horrible move was the call of the rr pf. The crai on flop is +EV even when villain has AA.

[ValueKill]

Seriously why cant some people just try to contribute to a hand that is actually debatable. No need to come into the thread and say idiotic things like "am i being leveled?". I dont find it funny at all. This is a strategy forum and I posted a hand that requires some real thought. I know a lot of you are just such huge winners at 50 NL that this is a big joke, but not to me.

[ValueKill]

I also was wondering when calling that pfr is ok? How big do the effective stacks have to be to make the call? I was under the impression that calling there even OOP wasn't that bad.

[jonyy6788]

fold PF!!!!!!!!!!!!

once u see the flop, u have to decide between shoving for $3.9 in EV or fishing OOP w/ implied odds. I think your implied odds > shoving

EDIT: Convert ur hands so I know WTF is going on and what ur hole cards are

[relativity_x]

okay here's the final answer.

1) raising sc utg is fine.
2) Do not call a rr from anyone OOP, so If the co/btn rr you fold....maybe call sb/bb.
3) Your push is +EV, but you would avoid this situation had you folded to the rr pf.
4) Also, you have no fold equity on your push. At least that's my take. Maybe wrong?

[derosnec]

u have about 11% chance of flopping a flush draw

1% chance of flopping a flush

1% chance of flopping a straight

8% chance of flopping a straight draw

2% chance of flopping two pair

2% chance total of flopping quads/trips/boats


what does this all mean? i have no idea. but maybe it will help with the math on whether to call the pf 3bet.

[ValueKill]

I wish I was good at math. I am sure at some point calling the PFR is actually appropriate.

[relativity_x]

if you were like 500bb deep.

[tiger_hall]

man this sucks...
why you calling pre flop raise?? if you do then expect to be putting all your chips in the middle with a bad hand and generally lose all your money

[greggg230]

If you guys were both like 300BB deep, calling it would be .. just decent, probably not advisable (though, the deeper you get, the closer to -EV your flop push becomes). I'm pretty sure people who play super deep high stakes games still avoid playing speculative hands like this oop.

[ValueKill]

[ QUOTE ]
man this sucks...
why you calling pre flop raise?? if you do then expect to be putting all your chips in the middle with a bad hand and generally lose all your money

[/ QUOTE ]


LOL...

[Warteen]

[ QUOTE ]
okay here's the final answer.

1) raising sc utg is fine.
2) Do not call a rr from anyone OOP, so If the co/btn rr you fold....maybe call sb/bb.
3) Your push is +EV, but you would avoid this situation had you folded to the rr pf.
4) Also, you have no fold equity on your push. At least that's my take. Maybe wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is some FE here. Villain often has AK, AQ etc. and will fold to the push.

[relativity_x]

yeah, you probably have a little as I stated in my post, but the EV doesn't lie in your FE. It lies in your % to win against Villain's range, which is pretty impressive here.

[C4LL4W4Y]

Grunch...this is a pretty weak hand to raise UTG, as flops that this hand is going to hit are still going to be difficult to play OOP. Calling the 3-bet is horrendous.

[derosnec]

finally a voice of reason (because he agrees with me)

[ValueKill]

from reading a lot of these posts I think its incredbly safe to assume that many of you are not winning poker players. The concept of raising UTG w 54 is not bad at all. If you think its a bad play you really need to reevaluate your game. Mixing it up is crucial in poker. If you just raised the same hands from the same positions every single time people would always have an exact read on you. Honestly sometimes I will even 3 bet 54 from the BB to a button raise. Raising 54 utg isnt something I try to make a habit of, but the occasional raise from UTG is not bad at all. If you honestly think it is I suggest you open your game up a little bit.

[relativity_x]

I agree with you 100% value. I raised T2o utg lastnight, and hit a huge pot in 50 NL, but it's not to be done frequently. Moreover, you don't call a rr OOP with 100 bb, ever. There's no implied odds in this.

edit: also, before I get berated on my raise, I was playing at a very nit table. the loosest guy was around 18%. they were all TAG, so basically I was stealing blinds like crazy. I didn't get reraised in the pot PF and hit two pair on a dry board. Guy donated with tptk. Also, I feel confident in my ability to escape a dangerous post flop decision.

[C4LL4W4Y]

Dude, you asked if it was a losing LONG TERM play. Do you get what that implies? If executed over continuously over the long run, will this play lose money? If you don't understand that it will, it's pretty obvious that YOU are not a winning player.

Now in terms of mixing it up (and increasing your shania), that's fine as long as your table is mindful of what you're doing. In my experience at 50NL, most of your opponents are not.

Calling a 3b from UTG with a sc when only 100bbs deep is a leak. Your stack + implied odds aren't big enough to make up for the times that you bleed money on this play.

[derosnec]

watch CR videos (i honestly think i've watched over 1/2 of them over the past year) and you'll see over and over brian townshend, taylor, fruitypro, etc. folding these hands utg and saying why they do so.

uNL is really is about a discpline. if you have to mix up your game and be unpredictable, you're sitting at the wrong tables. just the fact that we raise 22/33. etc. utg is enough of mixing it up to get us action on our big hands.

[greggg230]

Maybe that's true if you're playing with pros or, even, good players, but you play with so many people who don't pay attention to things like that at the NL25/NL50 tables that you really don't have to mix it up. Just play straightforward poker. You're not playing against Phil Ivey here.

[relativity_x]

umm, some 50 NL is very aggressive, and you'll definitely want to make plays like this. On the most part though, you're right no need to be doing this at 25,10,5,2NL. It really depends on your opponents.

Last thing, you should definitely not be doing this against unknown villains with less than 100/200 hands on.

[ValueKill]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, you asked if it was a losing LONG TERM play. Do you get what that implies? If executed over continuously over the long run, will this play lose money? If you don't understand that it will, it's pretty obvious that YOU are not a winning player.

Now in terms of mixing it up (and increasing your shania), that's fine as long as your table is mindful of what you're doing. In my experience at 50NL, most of your opponents are not.

Calling a 3b from UTG with a sc when only 100bbs deep is a leak. Your stack + implied odds aren't big enough to make up for the times that you bleed money on this play.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/9100/100nlka3.jpg




No I dont win at all.

[greggg230]

Okay, this thread has officially reached "retarded" status. Grats all!

[bozzer]

lol, i'm moving to UB right now!!!

[Chomp]

Whoa. Nasty 50,000 hand break even stretch.

But a very, very nice week at the end. That's like 8BIs a day for a week or 10 days or something. Awesome run.


Edit: Sorry, it's 100NL...4 or 5 a day for a week.

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]
No I dont win at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL you don't have to break out the graph man, nobody cares.

[SpartanCA]

I agree with C4LL4W4Y on this one. A lot of people at these stakes do not play in such a way that they will recognise you only raise AA from UTG etc. From my experience a lot of the players at these level hope to get lucky and call any raises because it makes a big pot which they like. Being deceptive is more for higher stakes poker where people do care about positional raises etc. The raise with 45s from UTG is a negative play at this level and then calling the re-raise is a hugely negative play at any level.

[wslee00]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, this thread has officially reached "retarded" status. Grats all!

[/ QUOTE ]