[NL50] 5-Handed. KK vs Big stack!

[oaklaus]

***** Hand 664129280 *****
0.25/0.50 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - Monday, June 25, 2007 11:58:33 PM
Table TH 669 (Real/Cash Game)

Seat 1: TANYA69 (50.00)
Seat 2: quarantuno (38.40)
Seat 3: WellLifeIs (63.90)
<font color="darkblue">Seat 4: Hero(149.97)
Seat 5: Vilain (182.05)</font>

WellLifeIs post SB 0.25
Hero post BB 0.50

** Deal **

Hero K /images/graemlins/spade.gif, K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

PREFLOP
Vilain Raise to 2.50
TANYA69 Call 2.50
quarantuno Call 2.50
WellLifeIs Fold
Hero Raise to 20.00
Vilain Raise to 65.50
TANYA69 Fold
quarantuno Fold
<font color="red">Hero ???</font>

[creamfillin]

is that a hand or C++

[Lego05]

Why 20? Making it 13 or so seems just fine to me.

Any reads, stats or anything on villian? How did he get his stack?


And I don't know: I would not be happy if I found myself in this spot. Fold's prolly not good, but if you don't fold here you're probably goin to be putting 300BB's in the middle. 5bet shove......or call and check raise shove any flop with no A and no Q.


I dunno.

[K䲰䮥n]

[oaklaus]

If Vialain has AA is not the question. The question is: what should I do, push, fold, call???

No Infos on Vilain, he wasn't at the table when I arrived (30 min ago , good run!) and direct buy-in with this amount (probably the stack he had when he left the table).
He seem's to play correctly! but no more informations!

[Lego05]

How bout a maybe option. I think this is actually a more interesting KK pre-flop hand since they are 300 BB's deep.

If he seemed to be playing correctly and you haven`t been 3/4 betting each other light before, I fold.

[phatjeffrey]

ivey folded KK , you should...

[greggg230]

[ QUOTE ]

5bet shove...... do not call and check raise shove any flop with no A and no Q.


[/ QUOTE ]

Calling just gives AK/AQ/QQ a chance to catch up. If you're going to get all the money in on a flop like that, just get the money in pre-flop; you still lose to AA and if you let them see a flop, you can now lose to Ax and QQ.

[ama0330]

first raise is too big, go for $14 instead

as played you're too deep to shove, I just fold

[greggg230]

Just to be clear.. I think shoving or folding are both fine (I'd probably lean towards shoving without a read; people do all sorts of stupid crap). Shoving &gt; Folding &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; calling

[black666]

How can shoving be good as you only get called by AA?

How about a call and re-evaluate on the flop? If villain continues his aggression, we can fold. If we flop a K, we stack villain big time.

[greggg230]

What do you mean you "if" he continues his aggression? Do you think he's going to 4-bet and c/f the flop? What are we going to evaluate on the flop?

[relativity_x]

I think it's safe to say that the villain's range is pretty narrow here. I'd say qq+,AKs. I think you either push/fold. You really fubarred the raise to 20.

fwiw, I'd fold queens this deep, but I don't know if i'm good enough to fold kings yet.

[corsakh]

Err... AA vs KK is variance.

[Peter Harris]

[ QUOTE ]
Err... AA vs KK is variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

right up until you have more to go on, and that's what the betting sequence is about.

it's either shove or fold. I think folding is best, but I bet lots of us don't do just that.

[relativity_x]

I don't know if folding is best here. I don't have pokerstove, so if someone wants to run his range against KK assuming his range is qq+,AKs and maybe jj. I'd like to see it. I'd say it'd be close to a push.

[Tking4unc]

Agreed, make it around $13-$15 pre flop and if he comes over the top I just let it go... you can find a better spot

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

5bet shove...... do not call and check raise shove any flop with no A and no Q.


[/ QUOTE ]

Calling just gives AK/AQ/QQ a chance to catch up. If you're going to get all the money in on a flop like that, just get the money in pre-flop; you still lose to AA and if you let them see a flop, you can now lose to Ax and QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way he's calling with AQ if we shove....just about no way he's calling with AK if we shove......and I think most players are not calling with QQ if we shove. So IMO if we shove and get called like 90%+ of the time we are either splitting with KK or losing to AA.


Edit: I'd also like to add that I don't think there's even any way he has AQ after he 4bets.

[greggg230]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

5bet shove...... do not call and check raise shove any flop with no A and no Q.


[/ QUOTE ]

Calling just gives AK/AQ/QQ a chance to catch up. If you're going to get all the money in on a flop like that, just get the money in pre-flop; you still lose to AA and if you let them see a flop, you can now lose to Ax and QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way he's calling with AQ if we shove....just about no way he's calling with AK if we shove......and I think most players are not calling with QQ if we shove. So IMO if we shove and get called like 90%+ of the time we are either splitting with KK or losing to AA.


Edit: I'd also like to add that I don't think there's even any way he has AQ after he 4bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you mean AQ/AK/QQ will fold and we'll win a pot with a lot of money in it? I'm looking for the downside here.

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

5bet shove...... do not call and check raise shove any flop with no A and no Q.


[/ QUOTE ]

Calling just gives AK/AQ/QQ a chance to catch up. If you're going to get all the money in on a flop like that, just get the money in pre-flop; you still lose to AA and if you let them see a flop, you can now lose to Ax and QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way he's calling with AQ if we shove....just about no way he's calling with AK if we shove......and I think most players are not calling with QQ if we shove. So IMO if we shove and get called like 90%+ of the time we are either splitting with KK or losing to AA.


Edit: I'd also like to add that I don't think there's even any way he has AQ after he 4bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you mean AQ/AK/QQ will fold and we'll win a pot with a lot of money in it? I'm looking for the downside here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call, AQ/AK/QQ will commit stacks on the flop which = more value /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

5bet shove...... do not call and check raise shove any flop with no A and no Q.


[/ QUOTE ]

Calling just gives AK/AQ/QQ a chance to catch up. If you're going to get all the money in on a flop like that, just get the money in pre-flop; you still lose to AA and if you let them see a flop, you can now lose to Ax and QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way he's calling with AQ if we shove....just about no way he's calling with AK if we shove......and I think most players are not calling with QQ if we shove. So IMO if we shove and get called like 90%+ of the time we are either splitting with KK or losing to AA.


Edit: I'd also like to add that I don't think there's even any way he has AQ after he 4bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you mean AQ/AK/QQ will fold and we'll win a pot with a lot of money in it? I'm looking for the downside here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I was thinking with the call check raise flop option he might put a little more in with those hands and then hero wins a bit more.

Also I don't think he ever has AQ. I haven't done math, but I don't think he folds often enough and we win when called often enough to make shoving the best play. Obviously if hero wasn't so deep it'd be different.

[greggg230]

I agree, unless he's retarded, he never has AQ.

It's hard to imagine AK c-betting here unless he hits one of his cards.

If we can narrow villains range to QQ/KK/AA, it's a little closer. I hate giving a free flop, even to a hand with two outs, but it might be worth its weight in deception, since you'll probably stack QQ and will be behind AA all the same. I dunno, I'm still gonna feel regret if a Q or A pops up on the flop.

[wslee00]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is actually a more interesting KK pre-flop hand since they are 300 BB's deep

[/ QUOTE ]
i agree - the rule about never folding KK pf is only for ~100bb's. they are 300 bb's deep here so a KK fold is not out of the question.

Shoving pf is horrible here imo - you only get called by AA, and I think he will lay down Q's here.

Also, bet sizing, with 300BB's behind, I think a big raise to reduce implied odds is fine here imo - but this is open to debate.

I think fold &gt; call (with intention of crai on a non-A, non-Q flop) &gt;&gt;&gt; shove.

[ZingyDNA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is actually a more interesting KK pre-flop hand since they are 300 BB's deep

[/ QUOTE ]
i agree - the rule about never folding KK pf is only for ~100bb's. they are 300 bb's deep here so a KK fold is not out of the question.

Shoving pf is horrible here imo - you only get called by AA, and I think he will lay down Q's here.

Also, bet sizing, with 300BB's behind, I think a big raise to reduce implied odds is fine here imo - but this is open to debate.

I think fold &gt; call (with intention of crai on a non-A, non-Q flop) &gt;&gt;&gt; shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

With no reads this is a shove. If I know he only calls with AA, it's still worth it because I win [/b]160 BBs[/b] already in the pot when he folds hands not AA( You think that's rare?? You must have bad table selection /images/graemlins/smile.gif ). Calling is actually the worst: you're hoping he's making a move preflop AND will continue bluffing on the flop.

[Lego05]

Ok let's see. Let's say he can have AA,KK,QQ, and AK and will call a shove with AA and KK. That's 21 possible combinations and he calls a pre-flop shove with 7 of them AA=6, KK=1, QQ=6, AKs=2, AKo=6.

Pot=$93 with $130 left to shove

So 66% of the time we shove he folds and we win $93. 93*.66=$61.38

33% of the time we shove and he calls:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11,986,128 games 0.005 secs 2,397,225,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.618% 15.59% 07.03% 1868272 842711.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 77.382% 70.35% 07.03% 8432434 842711.00 { AA, KcKd }


So 77.4% of 33 is 25.5% so 25.5% of the time we lose $130. .255*130 = -$29.25

6.5% of the time we win $93+$130=$223. So .065*223= $14.5.

So +$61.38-$29.25+$14.95 = +$47.08




Ok so first off would someone please check that and make sure I did it all correctly. Second off if I did then it looks like a clearly +ev shove given that range. I'm really not sure if he's 4betting so many AK combos though.

[Lego05]

I have to go now and won't be back home till tomorrow, but someone please check my calc in the above post.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
6.5% of the time we win $93+~$85=$178. So .065*178= $11.5.

[/ QUOTE ] Minor problem as shown above...the bigger issue is with the assumptions . Villain 4bets AA/KK here a lot more frequently than the other part of the range so we need to discount the folding part of the range significantly. I'd say at least by 50% and maybe more because villain is IP and is much more likely to take a flop and reevaluate IP.

Eyeballing it it looks like this discounting is still sl. EV+ but discount just a bit more and its EV-. Holy variance Batman.

[infinite_loop]

No reads? Is he willing to do that with QQ? Problem is that it's push or fold. I would probably err on the conservative side if I was playing the hand in the dark given the stack sizes. There's like no info to make a strong decision here.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
***** Hand 664129280 *****
0.25/0.50 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - Monday, June 25, 2007 11:58:33 PM
Table TH 669 (Real/Cash Game)

Seat 1: TANYA69 (50.00)
Seat 2: quarantuno (38.40)
Seat 3: WellLifeIs (63.90)
<font color="darkblue">Seat 4: Hero(149.97)
Seat 5: Vilain (182.05)</font>

WellLifeIs post SB 0.25
Hero post BB 0.50

** Deal **

Hero K /images/graemlins/spade.gif, K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

PREFLOP
Vilain Raise to 2.50
TANYA69 Call 2.50
quarantuno Call 2.50
WellLifeIs Fold
Hero Raise to 20.00
Vilain Raise to 65.50
TANYA69 Fold
quarantuno Fold
<font color="red">Hero ???</font>




[/ QUOTE ]

just fold 300BB deep. not worth it.

[wslee00]

[ QUOTE ]
With no reads this is a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]
i completely disagree with this.

no reads and he 4-bets you after you make a huge 3-bet AND you are both 300bb's behind. I'm going to assume he's not an idiot here and fold.

[NikkiSixx]

I definatly don't think shoving here is good, unleass u have a read that he's a complete donk - I think he's even folding KK pre to a shove.
I'm probably just folding here.....simply way to much variance 300bb deep

[oaklaus]

Do nobody give him a chance to be on a semi-bluff with JJ/TT?
My bet of 20$ has show him that I won't see a flop and prefere to take the 7$ right now!
I think he could 4-bet just because he think I'm weak and he could take 20$ easily!

I know that in his case, I would do the same, knowing that 60$ didn't commit me to the pot!