50NL Top 2 vs CRAI on turn

[BevillTheDevil]

villian is 46/11/1.5 after 110 hands, has c/r turn 0/19 no other reads..

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $11.59
UTG+1: $50.10
CO: $9.25
Hero: $94.75
SB: $62.69
BB: $113.31

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif
2 folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, SB calls, BB folds, CO calls.

Flop: 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($8, 3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7</font>, SB calls, CO folds.

Turn: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($22, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $53.19</font>, Hero ?

[Genz]

At first I wanted to say instacall. But then... This is a pretty massive move. You only beat a smaller 2pair like 87,67, 86. I think I fold here. Villain doesn't seem crazy enough to have KJ here. When he calls the big bet on the flop and then crai the turn, he wants value. There are lots of combos for straights and sets, put comparatively few for weaker 2pairs.

[Roger Mainfield]

I call, he will have worse 2 pair often enough. You are getting decent odds too.

[losingdonkey]

could be a slow played two pair, or a turned worse two pair. I think you're good here often enough to call.

[Roger Mainfield]

You only need 33ish% (38 to win 113)equity vs this tight range you have 42%. I think he has k8-k6 here often also.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.986% 41.99% 00.00% 702 0.00 { Kc8c }
Hand 1: 58.014% 58.01% 00.00% 970 0.00 { 88-66, T9s, 87s, 76s, T9o, 87o, 76o }

[Genz]

Add 54 to that range and it's getting real close. You still have to weight his range. So sets are just more likely than 86 because of the way he played it. Call if you never tilt and luv the variance.

[BevillTheDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Call if you never tilt and luv the variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol im complete opposite...so then i should fold obv